Joe Biden is the present, not the future. Biden is 78 years old. He is an old 78.
Someone new will emerge to be the face of the Democratic Party.
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| New Hampshire, September 2019 |
Biden is here now but he is a dead-end for Democrats. I have seen him on TV. I have seen him in real life about eight times. I have shaken his hand, visited briefly, stood next to him, gotten selfies with him. He is six feet tall but slender and oddly frail, and, of course, inarticulate. The criticisms of him on Fox are grossly unfair and exaggerated--the hosts and guests call him senile and confused and an empty shell--but my sad observation and opinion is that there is some truth to it.
His public schedule is light. That isn't what is dispositive. A president with one big announcement a day is doing enough, if a president uses it to rouse public support with soaring words of inspiration and a show of energetic purpose. Ronald Reagan did that with a light schedule. Joe Biden is no Ronald Reagan. Biden has no gift for inspiration. He cannot shape the future by building a new Democratic message and constituency.
My Democratic readers may think I am too harsh, that I underestimate what Joe Biden brings to the table. He brings a kind of low drama serenity, and after--and still within--the Trump Era, that is what a majority of Americans wanted. Biden represents an alternative to Trump, a reaction, not a future. It is still the Trump Era, not the Biden Era.
Kamala Harris was presumably put into place to show Biden's respect for women and people of color, and to be the understudy in the event Joe Biden is hit by the proverbial bus. If a bus accident happens, she will step out from the shadows, but currently she is hidden deep within them. Her dilemma is that if she were present as a vital hard-charging energetic Vice President, she would feed the meme of Biden-as-doddering-puppet, so he cannot let her do that. Her future requires intervention of that proverbial bus. Meanwhile, Biden and Harris plug the lanes for others.
Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are legislators. Their messages are about votes and process--not motivating themes that build political coalitions. Legislators manage coalitions, they don't create them. Trump needed his McConnell, but Trump created his base. There is a Democratic base but not a Biden base.
What is the Democratic narrative? I present two of them in the form of short video clips. One is Cory Bush, the U.S. Representative from Missouri, who presents a vivid path, one so vivid that it is already famous on Fox News and it will be shown and re-shown a billion times in GOP attack ads. I consider it a dangerous narrative. She mixes politician-privilege, hypocrisy, and a devastating brand message of "defund the police." A great many Americans want police reform: Better police, not less police. "Defund the police" is a phrase designed to elect overwhelming majorities of Trump-style Republicans. Here she is, 30 seconds:
There is another version of the Democratic future, shown in this clip of Pete Buttigieg on Fox News. Buttigieg did it again. Fox needs to stop booking Buttigieg. He un-masks them. With calm competence he made a Fox News host look biased and stupid, while simultaneously making his point about the Biden administration's effort to reduce pollution and re-build America. The sub-text of Buttigieg's comment is "You Fox News partisan idiot. Electric cars don't have tailpipes, duh," said without saying the idiot and duh part. An image emerges of cool competence. It is re-assuring. It looks like Democrats are serious about governing well while giving no ground to Republicans who attempt to make a political jab. Buttigieg looks like he is ready to lead a nation.
There is a potential downside: A strong element of meritocratic, emotionless, coolness. Humans are motivated by feelings of emotional connection. Americans may be put off by Buttigieg's preternatural verbal fluency. Mike Dukakis presented himself as nonpolitical and competent. Buttigieg might be another Dukakis.
Plus, there is the proudly acknowledged elephant in Buttigieg's biography: He is gay. Could Pete Buttigieg be the future for Democratic leadership? Americans voted for a heterosexual playboy flagrant adulterer who grabs pussies and is proud he could get away with it. A majority of White women voted for him twice, and greater majorities of White men did so. A huge majority of church-goers support Trump. Would a majority of Americans support a scandal-free gay married man? Maybe not. Maybe it is too soon.
But he is an alternative to Kamala Harris, and he is visible, selling the roads and bridges Americans like. Here he is, for one minute:
9 comments:
Can you imagine a debate between Trump and Pete? I love his Fox News clips. He won me over with them. The question is would moderates, independents vote for a gay guy? Younger voters don’t care about being gay as movies and social media has normalized it. Glad we don’t have to worry about this issue for awhile. Still enjoying the calm as I believe America is as well. Maybe Biden again?
Cori Bush is in my opinion a non-starter for even higher office because she became famous promoting a toxic lie, namely the Ferguson Fable, "Hands Up, Don't Shoot". Officer Wilson was the crime victim, not Michael Brown, as even the Obama Justice Department and the Brown family's star forensic pathologist concluded. The rest is history, even as the BLM movement is increasingly viewed as a net negative and entitlement-mentality gun violence runs rampant in our city streets.
Pete Buttigieg has all the attributes described in the blog entry. The nation would still be expected to answer a question it ultimately avoided in 2019-20. All else being equal--his military service, his small-city mayoralty, his academic record, his calm intellect--without flogging his sexual orientation, would he even make the candidate's stage? Yet that same factor could also doom his national viability, especially among those who made identity work for Obama.
Americans voted for a heterosexual playboy flagrant adulterer who grabs pussies and is proud he could get away with it. Bill Clinton???
Say what you will about Joe Biden. He is the personification of the saying "90% of success is showing up". You say calm, I'm on the edge of my seat.
2024 is anybody's guess. What I'm hoping is the uneasy tension in the Democratic party holds and voters will stay the course, but it's going to depend not on the candidates but the success of the administration. Yes, if all goes well VP Harris could insure eight more years of progress, that strategy seems likely.
Republicans are shaping up to be a cage match. Let's hope we can watch them tear each other apart, and what's left of their party, from a safe distance. OK, too harsh? How about musical chairs to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?
Way too soon to assess a presidential candidate for 2024! We must get past 2022 first! More than likely the whole enchilada will be over as the Republicans sweep into the US House and US Senate. Unless the two voting rights bills clear and become law in time to short circuit the plans in play currently throughout the Republican-held State Houses. The slow-moving coup will be successful. The game's afoot.
Anonymous is absolutely right. If the D coalition loses either,or worse, both Houses of Congress, which given the President's apparent disinterest in reforming the Senate, appears increasingly more likely, the Presidrnt might as well move back to his basement in Delaware and reflect on how he enabled the destruction of the Republic.
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It’s gonna be somebody who fits the requirements of being a President no diff than previous presidents: a senator, a former vp or a successful governor.
Cori Bush is not ready to be a Presidential candidate, and probably won't ever aspire to be. She aspires to be an activist who is in Congress. I have tremendous respect and admiration for her.
Pete, VP material. Harris not a charismatic personality. Cori Bush, inner city dynamo only. How about Gina Raimondo, business smart? That is the depth of my perceptions so far.
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