Biden is old, but he is wise to the way world power chess is played.
The U.S. is moving a Rook and a Bishop from one side of the board to the other. Smart. The U.S. got stronger. China got weaker.
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| The western half of the board |
The U.S. pullout from Afghanistan helps us strategically. Afghanistan is far away. Any country could house people who plot to blow up our federal buildings and try to overthrow our democracy; Timothy McVey in Oklahoma City and the January 6 insurrection in D.C. prove that. We put Afghanistan onto central stage by deciding that it was a criminal state that harbored the 9-11 terrorists, but we could have identified other countries to target--and did. Iraq. The 9-11 terrorists were Saudis and they harbor and fund Islamic fundamentalist terror. But they have oil. We are semi-aligned with them in opposition to Iran. Our interests in the Middle East are oil and Israel. We can and do live with Muslim extremism.
The U.S. shows we support our allies. We fought for 20 years, lost soldiers, and spent a trillion dollars in an effort long understood to have been hopeless and counter-productive. We demonstrated that we will persist for two decades against all reason and self interest.
China-- not the U.S.--was the big beneficiary of our war in Afghanistan. Afghanistan borders the Xinjiang province of China, home to the Uyghurs, the Turkic ethnic group of Muslim faith. China is struggling and failing to integrate them into their imagined multi-ethnic harmony of Chinese diversity. China has resorted to Plan B: Internal surveillance, religious persecution, prison, family separation, forced abortions, and "re-education." The U.S. kept the Taliban--also Turkic people of Muslim faith--busy fighting us. Our leaving means a chaotic Islamic state on the border adjacent to Xinjiang. That is less than ideal for us but it is a genuine danger for China.
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| Eastern Chessboard: China encircled |
The Afghanistan move is really about Taiwan. China is an export power whose ports are surrounded by an island chain from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. The straits between them are narrow and the U.S. Navy patrols the area. China is vulnerable in the event of serious conflict. Taiwan is officially part of China but in fact shore batteries protect Taiwan from China. It is theirs, but not theirs.
Taiwan is also a rebuke and a contradiction of the central Chinese Communist Party deal with its people, that the CCP is the source of their new prosperity. Taiwan is more prosperous and did it with economic and political freedom. China would invade if they could do it easily, but cannot. Taiwan is well defended, the U.S. Navy is there, and amphibious warfare needs staging and assembly of a landing force, and secrecy is impossible in a world of satellites.
So now we have a chess game of signals. We have freed ourselves up in Central Asia. The U.S. will assure Taiwan that we are committed to the South China Sea by sailing ships there. Taiwan will be grateful. China will understand it to be a provocation. They will respond by selling fighter jets to North Korea or something similar. We will avoid a direct confrontation because our populations are hostage to each others' nuclear bombs. And besides, we are trading partners.
The chess game only makes sense as a way for world powers to position and re-position themselves while avoiding direct war. No one really wants a war.
16 comments:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The chess match you describe is a modern version of "the great game" between the British and the Russians of the 1800's.
You leave out the dishonor and weakness projected by the incompetence with which we left Afghanistan. That has an effect also. Jihadists all over the world are very encouraged by the scenes from Afghanistan.
Trump was easily played and in terms of incompetence Trump was truly king. Diplomacy works better than fearing an incompetent president such as Trump. Glad we are getting out of Afghanistan. We did plenty to honor, enough is enough. In terms of IQ, Trump is not very bright, he is just good at lies. The man claims several club golf championships by playing by himself and then claiming the victory. Talk about dishonorable behavior.
I appreciate the concern that we appear to be withdrawing from Afghanistan dishonorably. Curious how a nation state loses a war “honorably?” Perhaps the General in charge of our ground forces should have rode onto the field on a white horse and handed over his sword to the Taliban guerrilla leader, like Robert E Lee did at Appomattox Court House? That was honorable.
The optics of losing a war suck. How could we have done it better? Had we, prior to withdrawing our troops, announced that those Afghanis who had (for lack of a better term) collaborated with us should arrive at Kabul Airport for emigration, there would have been millions of Afghanis trampling over the fences, and the Afghani security forces would have collapsed that very day. How many more thousands of Marines and soldiers would have been needed to control that? And how many would have died?
How Fox News would have loved decrying the potential of millions of Afghanis moving to the USA. And of course, this thought exercise doesn’t even consider that under Trump, Steven Miller and his acolytes dismembered the bureaucracy in place to process visa holders.
War is always messy. People die from friendly fire. Civilian targets get hit. Signals get crossed. We are not used to watching losing a war on TV. It’s been 50 years since we all last saw this show.
Biden's retreat was about as well thought out as the 20 years of wasted money and lives that preceded it.
I removed an unsigned blog comment that was posted here briefly. It was written in the characteristic style of Curt Ankerberg, a frequent Republican candidate for local office. I will allow his posts to be published when they are signed by him, because I consider them a reflection both on himself and on the voters who support him. I prefer signed comments, regardless of style and content. When a comment is written in the characteristic Ankerberg style--whether by him or by someone mimicking him--but is unsigned, I delete them.
Peter Sage
Comments administrator
I didn't see it, but I'm presuming you mean it was littered with expletives, baseless accusations and stupid name-calling. That's why he's also known as Curt Angerberg.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not deny that the U.S. must ask the Taliban for permission to get Americans out of Afghanistan during an interview over the weekend, days before President Joe Biden caved to the jihadis’ August 31 evacuation deadline.
Blinken made it clear on Sunday that the Taliban is calling the shots
During the latest edition of CBS’s Face the Nation, host Maj. Elliott Garrett questioned Blinken over the administration’s disastrous handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which led to the Taliban taking control of the country and declaring victory from Kabul on August 15.
Garrett asked, “Someone in our audience might listen to you, Mr. Secretary, and say, ‘Oh, so we have to ask the Taliban for permission for American citizens to leave.’ True or not true?” “They are in control of Kabul. That is the reality. That’s the reality that we have to deal with,” Blinken replied.
On Tuesday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “America Reports,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Michael McCaul said that Joe Biden will have blood on his hands for leaving American citizens behind in Afghanistan by withdrawing by August 31 and that Biden’s planned withdrawal date is “letting the Taliban dictate the terms of our surrender.”
McCaul said, “There’s no way it’s humanly possible” to evacuate everyone by August 31, “And that’s why I say he will have blood. Because our military always says no man left behind, no one left behind, this president now is leaving them behind, and American citizens. I think this is a disgrace. It’s a betrayal. An unconditional surrender to the Taliban should never have happened. This will have long-term consequences.”
He added, “I mean, we’re begging the Taliban to let us evacuate the country. It’s gotten to that point. It’s such a showing of weakness, the idea that our CIA director has to meet with the Taliban to save Americans. And the Taliban, they’re in power now, and their response is, we’re drawing a red line. And you know what? They’re probably going to enforce that red line. But we’re letting the Taliban dictate the terms of our surrender.”
Thousands of stranded people in Afghanistan only six days from President Joe Biden’s evacuation deadline are crying for help.
“Mr. Biden, you did this! You planned this! You made the deal with the Taliban,” an upset man told ITV News. “This is the consequences of it! This is the repercussions of it! Mr. Biden, it’s your ill calculation! You were against Trump, now we’re against you!”
“Go to hell, Biden!” he added.
Another report reveals over a thousand Americans are trapped at the American University of Afghanistan.
Another man who is a translator with the British military told ITV News that he would be killed if he doesn’t get on a flight out of the country.
“Yes, they (the Taliban) were gonna kill me,” Dad Nooragha Hashimi said when asked if his life was at risk. “It was like everybody was scared (about) what they’re going to do, and the first time they’re saying, ‘We’re gonna do nothing (to) anybody,’ but nobody knows if it will be the same as 1996,” he continued.
An American named Haroon is trapped in Afghanistan with his family, Fox News reported. “We all know what’s going to happen next the few days or next couple weeks after Americans leave Afghanistan,” he said. “So everyone is scared.”
“I’m trying to get my family out of here,” he said. “They don’t deserve this – to stay in Afghanistan, to deal with Taliban. Everyone should get out of here as soon as possible. We don’t have safety anymore.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham said Tuesday night that President Joe Biden “should be impeached” over America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, which the Republican lawmaker called “the most dishonorable thing a commander-in-chief has done in modern times.”
“This is dereliction of duty by the commander-in-chief,” Graham (R-SC) told Fox News’ “Hannity.”
“This makes it harder to fight future wars. Who’s going to help us in the future after we abandoned our friends in Afghanistan who fought bravely?” Graham went on.
“And the likelihood of a 9/11 is through the roof now, because Al Qaeda and ISIS are coming after us. If you believe we’ve left Afghanistan and we’ve ended the war between the US and radical Islam, you’re a fool. They’re coming after us and Joe Biden has left us naked and blind in Afghanistan.”
Biden has handled this problem beautifully . The Afghan government was not included in negotiations just Trump grandstanding with the. .Alpha Taliban leader. Chest pounding. So who was supporting the government troups? We fed them gave them guns but where were their leaders? Stashing money for the great escape.” So it’s one, two, three, what are we fighting for? I don’t give a damn, next stop Taliban” take my gun, burn my uniform, don’t kill my family. The Pres left town with his entourage and the dough. “To prevent a bloodshed” so why didn’t our military leaders have a plan B? We are watching plan C. We really don’t give a good goddamn about the Afghan people. They are Muslims for god sake. We are totally disinterested in learning their language or odd social structure. Curious maybe, but stop whining about Biden being unjust. You really don’t give a shit except for the optics.
What did this cornfried turncoat have to say when his hero TFG abandoned the Kurds who had been the point of our spear I Syria to the not so tender mercies of the Turkish military ? As I recall, not a effing word! Graham makes real traitors look good by comparison.
Good for you, I saw that.post, and wondered how it had slipped past.
Angerberg; so perfect. I really do tu think he's got some serious short circuitsxin his wiring.
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