The game changer is charisma

     "The determinate variable is the inspirational, aspirational leader who forges an emotional connection and gains loyalty."

            Tony Farrell, brand expert

Americans don't use a checklist to choose their leaders. 

Napoleon, crossing the Alps

Voters look for someone who captures their attention and connects emotionally. This means America is not stuck in its current shape of political trench warfare, red and blue, the same battleground issues and states. A bold leader will emerge and cut through the current Gordian Knot of gridlock. He or she will engage Americans in new issues and fight new battles, with political coalitions changed, new friends of convenience, new opponents, all of it put into form by the persuasive power of the new leader who steps up and out. 

It doesn't mean things will get better; it does mean something new. It is the political version of "creative destruction" that happens in business, as new products replace old ones. We just watched Trump re-formulate the GOP. We watched Sanders try to re-formulate the Democrats.  Twenty years ago West Virginia was bright blue, now it is bright red. California used to be a Republican stronghold; now the opposite. History hasn't ended. Change will keep happening.

The engine of that change is leadership. That is the message inside today's Guest Post by Tony Farrell, who had a long successful career marketing for The Nature Company, The Gap, Sharper Image, and then the hardest arena of marketing, infomercials. He was a college classmate, and he describes his own political journey. He wasn't locked into a political party. He wanted political and policy competence, wherever he found it.

Farrell says Trump needs to be understood as a brilliant performer, whose communication skills and savvy attracted and persuaded a big audience. He had his own form of charisma, the magic sauce that elevated Obama, and before him Reagan, and before him JFK, and on back. 

The hope--and danger--embedded in that insight is that the leader who emerges will appeal to different elements of the American psyche, and this may lead us to a better, safer, more prosperous future--or off a cliff. Either way, the tool that makes that leadership possible is the force of personality. 

Guest Post by Tony Farrell

Farrell

Whither the Republican Party? For the longest time, I was a Republican. LBJ's war and the lying was damaging; Nixon's deft management skills furthered me along into the Republican nest (nearly undone by Watergate). No chance of turning Democrat while enduring Carter and his wretched leadership, which nudged me toward Reagan. Democrats represented the dismal Montreal Olympics; Carter the boneheaded boycott of the Moscow Olympics after our glorious Miracle On Ice; then, Peter Ueberroth helmed the astoundingly successful L.A. Olympics; and there I was: A comfortable Republican with imperfect role models. To me, Republicanism meant competent management with a default deferral to the marketplace to address problems; not to exclude governance and regulation, but simply to see if private sector efforts could succeed first. If not, it's on to creating the EPA--as we know, by Nixon.

But now, in a reversal of Strom Thurmond (who said the Democratic Party, pushing civil rights, left HIM), the Republican Party--now Trump's but before as well--left ME. I did not change positions (too much) as I aged but the GOP's regressive, even primitive approach to social issues became unsupportable.

Farrell, with daughter Morgen, wearing Stanford gear

Now, as a retired professional marketer, brander, communicator, one must realize how singularly skilled Trump was: Brilliant like Hitler, in terms of astute reading of a select crowd.; fortunately for us, Trump had nowhere near the intelligence nor ambition of a Hitler. Trump's utter lack of talent for governing saved us from his destructive ignorance and amorality.  Once gone from office, I think Trump's gone from government. First, he's old; second, now he's a loser; third, mainstream media won't follow him like before; fourth, he's in dire legal straits, which could even drive him out of the country. Just like right now, in the wake of the election, it's golf and a growing irrelevance.

Trump's appeal was never based on policy nor ideology. Your mass of voters is not driven by ideas, that's for sure. Single issues? Sure. But in an election, one-on-one battles, winners prevail with charisma, communication skills and charm. Pretty much always been the case; more obvious now because of how media work. Obama out-charmed McCain and Romney; Hillary obviously could not out-charm anyone. 

I believe the Republicans are not permanently damaged. The determinate variable is the inspirational, aspirational leader who forges an emotional connection and gains loyalty. I believe the vast majority of Americans agree on the vast majority of things. Either party can win the White House, depending on the candidate--just like California and Massachusetts vote in a Republican governor every once in a while. (In California, we barely have a Republican party; here, Kamala Harris plays the role of a Republican!) The country can operate the same way.

My main point is that Trump was a singular phenomenon, soon to exit the stage; his brand upended from unstoppable winner to tiresome loser. But a good, charismatic, charming candidate from either party can win in 2024. Right now, I'm betting on Gavin Newsom to edge out Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination. I hesitate to guess on the Republican side, but Tom Cotton gets my bet. He, unfortunately, could be more dangerous than Trump, as he's a smart guy, nearly civil, and a veteran. Keep your wary eye on him.