There is a reason people think stopping COVID is a cure worse than the disease.
People die all the time of something. COVID is just one more thing.
Some people act incautiously about COVID and are proud of it and tell the world. They don't wear masks. They don't social distance. They protest government shutdowns.
I am not one of those people. I am the opposite. I think the risk of COVID illness is significant and worth the public health measures put into place by state and local officials. COVID is communicable and infections compound. I had a career considering the awesome power of compound interest, and I am 71 years old, in the pool of people who get very ill and die from COVID. Still, I observe others, including people my age, and wonder what in the world they are thinking being so careless.
Southern Oregon is full of mask-scofflaws and resistance to "freezes" and shutdowns. People are proposing a recall of the Oregon governor. Public figures validate that behavior. Matt Schlapp, the Chair of the American Conservative Union lobbying organization, was on Fox News saying he planned on going to church on Christmas Day and would, in general, go about ignoring COVID. "We have the right to do wrong things," he said. "We have the right to do unsafe things. It's part of being an American. I love every aspect of it!"
A comment to yesterday's blog post helps explain the thinking of people here in Southern Oregon, and the tens of millions of people who generally accept the Trump view that COVID has been overblown as a danger. Statistics. COVID, at least at this moment in my own microcosm of America, is dangerous, but not hugely so, looked at as the population as a whole. The records on Jackson County, Oregon, and the Vital Statistics for the State of Oregon, tell the story.
1. Everyone dies eventually. It is just a matter of when, not whether.
2. People are dying every day, of something.
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| John Coster |
Some people, perhaps consciously or unconsciously aware of those statistics, have decided that COVID simply is not that big a risk.
Here is the comment I received from John Coster, a Seattle-area reader with a career managing major building projects for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and others, a job that required careful examination of known and well-disguised risks.
To readers of this blog:
"Perhaps the numbers might explain people's sense of invulnerability. Let's start with the basics. Jackson County has a population of about 220,000 people.
According to Jackson County's Vital Statistics site, Click, about 2,100 people in Jackson County have died from all causes (including COVID-19) through the end of October this year, over 80% of whom were over 65 years old. You should note that 1% is about the normal mortality rate in Jackson County each year. So while Oregon has reported 1,045 COVID-19 deaths statewide so far this year, only 44 people in Jackson county have died from COVID-19. That's only 2% of all deaths in Jackson County this year which is within a normal year to year variance.
If you are predisposed to distrust the big national media and you look around and don't see any more hearses driving down the streets of Jackson County than normal, then you have to ask if there's really a risk? Yes, Medford's ICU beds are 80% occupied, but nobody is being turned away and there aren't refrigerated morgues with bodies piling up.
I'm not arguing that that the risk is not real and deadly, but it may help explain why people act so incautiously in your town."
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Jackson County is politically and culturally more conservative than the state as a whole, but as regards COVID, it is nearly typical of the state. We are approximately 5% of the state's population and with 44 deaths, we have had 4.3% of the state's COVID deaths. To put that into perspective, as of December 1, Jackson County has had 2,089 deaths from all causes, of which 1,945 were from natural causes, 47 were from suicide, 79 from unintended injury. This means COVID, at its present rate of occurrence and mortality, is not--not yet anyway--causing mass deaths. They are part of the normal flow of births, deaths, tragedies, expected and unexpected, that make up the human condition.
Oregon charts the average number of deaths from all causes, weekly and annually. As this blog has published in the past, the nation has seen excess deaths above the pre-COVID trend-line, of about 300,000 accelerated deaths. That number syncs nicely with the stated figures of national deaths officially recognized as COVID-caused, 290,000.
In Oregon in the pre-COVID months of January-March, we had a typical run of zero to 70 "excess" deaths over the three-and-five-year average of expected deaths of about 750 people per week. Oregon is growing in population so in the larger population more people die. Since the beginning of November, when COVID cases ramped up, Oregon is experiencing 108 to 171 "excess" deaths a week, of which 40 to 93 are listed as COVID deaths. COVID is accelerating deaths, but it is not dramatically outside the norm of "excess deaths." It is something statisticians and public health officials notice, as do the people and families affected directly for whom this is a cause of grief, but given the reality that hundreds of people are dying of something every week, the extra deaths are not conspicuous to the general public. As John Coster noted, we don't see an unusual number of hearses lined up on the streets.
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| Click: When and how Oregonians die |
Summary and take-aways: Extra people are dying. It is happening coincidentally in time with a COVID epidemic, the patients have COVID symptoms, and physicians are attributing the deaths to COVID. People dispute it, but I consider this dispositive that COVID is real. It is not a hoax. It is causing extra--earlier--deaths.
At this moment, COVID extra deaths, in Jackson County, Oregon, are measurable, but do not stand out as significant compared to other causes of death that people recognize as unfortunate--tragic--numbers within the range of suicides and accidents. We do not shut down schools, restaurants, bars, and businesses because of suicides and accidents. We do not close businesses because people die early from heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and strokes, the natural causes which are the primary causes of death.
COVID deaths are concentrated within a small demographic: The elderly, people's whose deaths are expected. Elderly people die, sooner or later, all of us, me and every reader of this blog. We don't like it, but it is the way of the world.
A closing warning. There is reason to treat COVID differently than other causes of death. COVID is a contagious virus, and as such can "go viral" and change its impact by an order of magnitude. Moreover, viruses mutate, and it could grow much, much more dangerous than it is now. The public health efforts to slow the virus spread won't stop the disease, but are intended to keep it small and stop things from getting worse.
This blog post is not intended to minimize the disease. It is intended to be fact-based about it, and to explain why some people justify doing what seems wildly irresponsible and risky to others. They might not think it is that risky.
Meanwhile, I am attempting to protect myself from those people. A healthy male my age, with access to good health care, has, perhaps, a 3 or 4% chance of dying from the disease if he contracts it. It's a lot more dangerous than driving a car.
8 comments:
What irks me is that this is even a debate.
Yes, we are doing better here in semi-rural Oregon. Great. Every case very likely originated somewhere else. More densely populated areas are being devastated. Public health and government are trying to stop the spread of the virus, something that requires cooperation from everyone to be successful.
The Republican (Regressive) base is largely ignorant, anti-science, and anti-authority, and are being pandered to for the sake of the recent election. Republican donors are somewhat insulated by their wealth from the infection. The irony of course is that they are leading their base to the slaughter, but hey, it's their choice as free Americans.
The problem is that they don't mind taking the rest of us with them.
One significant difference to Covid19 and other causes of death is the age group that is most affect - over 65. The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 was broad-spectrum, hit young and healthy harder than older members of the population. The timing was during the Great War (WW I), with death by illness greater than battlefield deaths world-wide. A large portion of solider and sailor deaths were in fact caused by the flu. Mass graves were dug to bury the dead. We are not there yet. But as John Coster warns Covid19 has not yet gone viral. If we wait for the signs that it has gone viral it will be too late.
What are the factors that may lead the virus to "go viral"? The first is the tedium of practicing precautions and abandoning this practices in mass: large holiday gatherings attending maskless indoors during the winter, flaunting guidelines for bars, restaurants and public spaces combined with the slow rollout of a vaccine. Second sign will be the mounting hospitalizations and demand for medical care overwhelming the ability to provide care for Covid19 patients resulting in the sick residing scattered throughout and in daily contact with the healthy unvaccinated. The third sign will be an indication that the virus has mutated to be more generally virulent and resistant to the current Covid19 vaccine. We have an early warning with the infection of minks in the Netherlands and Oregon mink farms mutated and that mutation wasn't killed by the antibodies produced after being vaccinated with the current round of vaccines.
All signs of viral spread increase are on the horizon for the United States. If this occurs, for the world to protect itself, counties will ban travel to and from the United States to contain the contagion as we will be the Hot Zone. This is not science fiction it is historical fact and human nature to self-protect and has occurred throughout history notably during the plagues in Europe.
The simple act of wearing a face mask properly and respecting community health guidelines will stem the tide and contain the spread.
“Go” viral? US has the highest death rate in the world.
Also, this just in from NYT.
“ At least 356,000 more people than normal have died in the U.S. between March 15 and Nov. 21 according to our analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That is nearly 20% higher than what would be expected in a normal year.”
That Jackson County has not been much harder than it has is a source of mystification, given the blase' attitude if so many if the residents.
Fellow commenters - my point in looking at the numbers was to offer an explanation about why people likely behave the way they do. Most of us aren't very good at assessing personal risk. Even in business when I have presented executives with risk decisions based on well-proven, empirically-based statistical models, they almost always talk about what they have experienced and how they "feel". Although they usually decide based on the numbers because to go against them would be a career risk.
I rode motorcycles for years knowing the stats and even having a few close calls. Then I witnessed a fatal motorcycle accident - while I was riding mine and it changed my perspective.
People in sparsely populated areas who have not been personally been touched by COVID in any serious way, and are surrounded by people who also haven't, will likely not take it seriously, regardless of the numbers.
A quote from the article " We do not shut down schools, restaurants, bars, and businesses because of suicides and accidents. We do not close businesses because people die early from heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and strokes, the natural causes which are the primary causes of death."
There is a huge difference, as Rick suggested in his letter, from what I do to myself to increase risk from heart disease, diabetes, asthma, etc. which affects few others,and my role in spreading the disease. Irresponsible behavior regarding the virus affects many many people around us. We don't have a right to do such things to others. An example is public smoking. You are allowed to kill yourself, but not to harm or kill others through second hand smoke.
I do not like the argument that old people will die of something anyway. I don't know about you, but losing 20 more year of productive life is not acceptable to me.
I do not think that this public concern warrants requiring vaccinations, however. I will be first in line to get mine, as any ill effects from the shot would be nothing compared with what the virus would do to me, with all of my pre-existing conditions.
Requiring a vaccination would further set off the rabid mass of trumpests and anti-vax people.
Nor do I like the argument that old people will die of something anyway. But the reality that is baked into every pension, annuity, and life insurance policy is that, in fact, old people will die of something sooner or later. Almost all 70 year olds will be dead in 30 years. I feel miserable about contemplating that, but it is true.
Point two is a matter of opinion, not confirmed fact. It is that, apparently, the consensus of opinion of a great many people in this country, measured by the vote Trump got, by the numbest of mask scofflaws and rebels, by the people get together with friends and families, by the content on Fox, by the agitation against public officials who authorize restrictions, who simply don't care all that much about watching out for old folks. They want US to shelter and to leave them alone to be free.
They consider themselves perhaps the way non-smokers feel about smokers. Smokers have the risk. It is their lungs, their health, their responsibility for stopping. People who aren't at risk of tobacco-related lung disease shouldn't sacrifice for people who are. Who thinks that way? A lot of Republicans and fans of Trump. And a lot of young people, who are unemployed to make life a little safer for old people like me. They resent it a little, or a lot.
Peter Sage
1. Older people, as consumers, are a big part of the economy.
2. Older people retire so younger people can move up the ladder.
I used to tell my younger co-workers "I'm from the future...yours."
All those who are so willing to throw us in the volcano should take a breath. They will be old one day...
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