Red states are COVID hotspots

The more Republican the state, the more COVID cases and deaths.

Correlation is not causation, but the correlation is there to see.

Perhaps the correlation can be explained by a deep conspiracy of Satanists and pedophiles to profit by killing off patriotic Trump-supporting Americans. I think it is because leaders of red states, and their citizens, are making a choice.

Americans have sorted themselves out into geographical communities of similar mindset. Of course, there are Republicans in California and Democrats in the Dakotas, conservatives in college towns, liberals in farm zones, but the election results confirm what is obvious on the ground. Majorities of people in different areas have different values and politics. It shows up in attitudes toward COVID and what, if anything, we should do to slow the spread. 

Rising GOP star

The Republican South Dakota governor proudly says we don't require masks nor restrict businesses in her state, and she gets interviewed on Fox and praised at home. The Republican North Dakota governor said the same thing until his state's case count got so high he had to relent, but at least he sent a clear message to his constituents that he held out until the death count became truly desperate. His heart was on the right side. Live free.

It is a premise of the public health community is COVID spread is a largely matter of human choice, modeled by political leaders and carried out by individuals. Simply put, if people are carefree about COVID, they spread it. Masks and social distancing work. Imperfectly, yes, but they help, and if people do the right things they can sharply reduce the spread. 

Not everyone agrees. Conservative cable and social media sites are rife with assertions that masks are worthless or perhaps dangerous, that the virus is largely a media hoax, that what causes the virus to spread is unknown. Trump himself models the behavior that COVID is out there in the air that everyone shares, but that getting or not getting it is only loosely related to behavior, and in any case it isn't that big a deal unless you are already on death's door. People who share that orientation behave differently than do people who accept an Anthony-Fauci-view of the world, that the virus is dangerous and that people should social distance now to protect the health of themselves, others, and the economy generally.

CNN reports on a community in Kansas now experiencing major outbreaks in a nearby prison and in a local assisted living community where 22 people died in short order. The state and county had specifically forbidden mask mandates.  CNN quotes a resident who moved to California, where he says masks are universal, but contrasts it with Norton, Kansas. "If you were to admit that you thought wearing a mask was a good thing, you would be a suspected Democrat. If you ever tried to say, 'I believe in science so I think we need to treat this like a communicable disease, and whether I like Trump or not, I think we should be wearing masks,' you would be ostracized. You either fit in or you're heavily branded the unusual person."

Something is at work to create the disparity in case and death counts among the various states. The color coding is for strongly Democratic dark blue, weakly Democratic light blue, and on to beige, then pink, and then strongly Republican dark red. Blue states started as the place with the highest case counts and death, but that has changed.

The high COVID areas are Trump country. This isn't a close call. 

Here is a chart of the states with the highest case count, coded for partisanship 

Click: animation of states from June to present

And here is a similar chart, by states with the highest death count.

Click: animation of deaths from June to present

The first outbreaks were in the blue states, but now the cases and deaths are taking place in states that resisted COVID control measures. So, obviously, red state behavior isn't working, isn't popular, and is sure to change, right?

Not necessarily. If one starts with the premise that the virus is out there and lots of people will inevitably get it, then taking action to stop it is pointless tyranny. "The virus is real," South Dakota Kristi Noem said, "but the science tells us we cannot stop the virus." Virus spread is inevitable, she says; protect yourself. Don't look to others to do it for you.

What about deaths? Aren't they unquestionably bad? Again, under the premise that nearly all the people who die are old and sick, or as in the case of the Dakotas, either Native Americans or new immigrants working in dangerously close quarters in slaughterhouses, then the deaths are concentrated among the "other," people outside the team of "normal Americans." Their deaths are tragic but not unexpected. 

These cases and deaths numbers did not emerge suddenly. People in the red states were experiencing rapidly rising numbers of cases and deaths on election day, when they voted in person. People in red states are not choosing to get sick and die disproportionately, but these cases and deaths are a choice a free people are making with their eyes open.

They are choosing their leaders and they are choosing how to live.