Democrats need to do something.

White voters turned out. So did minority voters.

Minority turnout won the election for Biden. 

Democrats have a problem going forward. How to address the needs of minority voters without creating a bigger White backlash vote.

Economist Jim Stodder spent most of his twenties as a union worker on oil rigs. He has real world, hands-on experience with the White Working Class, a group that gets its own initials--WWC--in pundit discussions of the 2020 election, and now with what Biden needs to do to re-connect Democrats to that group.

Somehow, Democrats pulled the 2020 election out with a combination of votes from minorities, educated people living in suburbs, and people who wanted to be rid of Trump. That is the Democratic coalition, enough to elect Biden, barely, but not enough to elect a robust majority in Congress. 

Jim Stodder favors "re-distributive" economic policies. Technology, automation, globalism--and for some people racial prejudice--have combined to create a large and growing pool of people who are falling behind, and they know it and don't like it. Blue collar workers in the 1970s could afford a middle-class life; now they cannot. 

Democratic messaging about racial justice sent a message to the WWC that Democrats think the most pressing problem facing struggling people is that they face prejudice from White Americans, especially the WWC. Not surprisingly, Democrats lost those votes. Stodder thinks the right policies and messages can get them back. He was a college classmate. He returned to college after a decade, finished, then got a Ph.D. in economics from Yale, and now he teaches at Boston University.

Guest Post by James Stodder

There has been a steady stream of articles, including one from Michael Cohen and the NY TImes decrying the drop-off in the Democratic margin among Black and Latino voters. 

Stodder

A few percent drop in 'minority margin' was swamped by the increase in minority turnout -- and these are people who vote overwhelmingly Democratic and did again this year. Biden-Harris turnout increased by 17% among Asians, by Blacks by 20%, and by Latinos by 63% over the 2016 election. The increase in overall turnout was more important in increasing the net margin of votes for Biden than was the slightly lower percentage share of the votes. Biden knows he owes them.

Trump also benefited from the larger turnout. The white margin for Trump decreased slightly, thank goodness. Trump's margin over Biden among Whites fell from 20 to 17%, so down by 3%. White turnout was up by 5.6% overall. That nets out that the number of White votes for Trump increased by about 5.6 - 3 = 2.6%. White turnout is not going to change very much, so Democrats need to chip away at that Republican margin among Whites.

This dual-track focus: higher turnout for Democrats among minorities, while boosting our margin with the White voters, is why Biden won. But a dual-track also leads to a dual-message tension for the party. The messages that can fire up minority voters are not the ones that can turn Republicans into Democrats in the suburbs, or worse, by mobilizing a vast conservative reaction by the WWC .

Some reaction did take place. Anyone who thinks that "Defund the Police" and "Socialism" didn't add to that 5.6% didn't watch the Republican ads where these slogans were intoned ominously over scenes of urban fires and looting. Tucker Carlson on Fox warned that urban rioters are "coming for you." Whatever policies Democrats promote cannot be called "Socialism."

So can we do it? Can we mobilize minorities while assuring suburban voters that Democrats don't really want socialism? I have my doubts. It just barely worked this time, and would not have without Trump's displays of madness and incompetence. Trump has charisma and his fans love him, but Democrats need to recognize that they benefitted from Trump's craziness. The surprising strength shown by Republicans in the House, Senate, and state races show that this was a rejection of Trump personally, but not a rejection of Republicans nor an endorsement of some, clear Democratic agenda.

How can Democrats thread the needle and let minorities know that Democrats care about them, without simultaneously sending the message to the White suburbs minorities are stepping to the front of the line? t can be done, with a focus on redistributive and opportunity-creating programs to aid the whole working and lower-middle-class. Universal health care is one way. It redistributes value from federal taxpayers to individual citizens, from richer to poorer. COVID makes a point Democrats have had a hard time making, that we all share an interest in the health of others. That would help working people and poor people disproportionately, and therefore minorities--in the name of fairness, saving rural hospitals, and the health of all of us. Don't call it socialism.

As we saw from the California vote rejecting affirmative action, Democrats need to recognize that many minority Americans identify as Americans with an interest in higher wages and better health care, not as a racial category with a primary interest in talk of racial justice seeking some sort of boost. Affirmative action lost even in minority-dominated precincts and counties.

I'm with Thomas Piketty that we need more than just a redistribution of income. What can be doled out can be tamped down or taken away. There should indeed be minimum income standards, but--and here's the part that will be impossible in this current political environment--we need a redistribution of capital ownership, with secure property rights. This can be done gradually, through pensions and inheritance taxes. 

I wouldn't go even-steven. I am not trying to make "everyone equal." I would still want people to have an incentive to accumulate wealth. But I'd make inheritance taxes very progressive, to limit the power of dynasties. There will still be plenty of dynasties based on talent and social connections, as there always have been.

If Democrats put that into place we will have a better, more just world, and Democrats would deserve the votes of working people of all races.