"I've spoken with a dozen county clerks in the last month. All of them--including many Republicans in purple areas--are terrified of what could happen if Trump declares victory, their delayed count puts Biden ahead, and locals get worked up."
Tim Alberta, Politico
"The only way they can win Pennsylvania, frankly, is to cheat on the ballots. Keep your eyes open if you see any shenanigans, which you probably will."
Donald Trump, Luzerne County, Pennsylvania
I have predictable predictions.
Biden will win the popular vote.
The election will come down to Pennsylvania.
Trump and Fox will claim victory and attempt to block the count of mailed-in ballots in Pennsylvania, creating a constitutional crisis.
The Supreme Court will figure out a way to keep Trump in office.
Let's set the stage. Biden will win the urban coasts. Biden will win Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump won last time. Biden will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada, which were very, very close in 2016, but which Hillary won. That will get Biden to about 260 electoral votes, based on the urban Northeast, the Pacific Coast, and Colorado and Nevada in the west, plus winning back the Upper Midwest "rustbelt."
The Northern "Blue Wall" is history, but persists out of inertia. Democrats are losing White working people in the Rustbelt. Americans sell services now, not manufactured goods. Manufacturing jobs moved away and Democrats and Republicans both let it happen and trusted that an increasingly educated workforce would give American workers a productivity edge. It worked for people who had the opportunity and interest to get advanced training, but not everybody does. Those people left behind are angry and they wanted a leader and they got one. Trump articulates better than do Democrats the economic interests of non-college industrial workers. (Sanders disqualified himself by insisting on using the word "socialism" to define himself. Some leftist young people were OK with it but it scared older people, and Sanders was consistent and uncompromising and paid the price.) Democrats are the Party of women in schools and offices, not the party of men in trucks or farms or factories. If COVID had not happened, the Upper Midwest "wall" would be red already. COVID layoffs and economic distress gave Democrats one last grasp of victory there.
Trump will win the South, again. The South is still lingering in rebellion against the Civil Rights era of the 1960's. The resistance congealed as broader cultural conservatism built around notions of patriotism, Christian identity, race, tradition, anti-abortion sentiment, and guns. This was accelerated by private Christian schools becoming a way to avoid school integration. But the South is changing, becoming more educated and cosmopolitan. Young people grew up watching Michael Jordan and Halle Berry, and they have more exposure at an early age to immigrants from Asia and Latin America. As time passes, things change with Gen X and Millennials a couple notches more comfortable with racial and ethnic diversity than are their parents and grandparents.
Seniors in Florida and Arizona aren't showing up as the silver bullet needed by Democrats. Seniors are more at risk, so are much more diligent about masks and distancing than young people, so they stayed alive, felt the burden of COVID restrictions more, and are tired of it right along with young people. There were seniors in those rally crowds shouting "Fire Fauci." If doing the hard, prudent thing were easy, people would eat healthy food and exercise.
Bottom line: the "Stacey Abrams coalition" is almost ready to win elections, combining educated anti-racist Whites with politically energized Blacks and Latinos--but not quite, giving Republicans one last grasp of victory.
Regardless of who takes office in 2020, if trends continue the 2024 election will confirm the Party re-alignment. Democrats will win in service-oriented cities and among women voters; Republicans in rural and manufacturing regions and with men. The right Democratic candidate, saying the right things, will win Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia. The right Republican will win Michigan and Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The 2020 election comes down to Pennsylvania, which has been described as a state with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on either end and "Alabama" in the middle. Actually it is "West Virginia" in the middle, with coal, natural gas, and oil. Trump is hammering away on fracking and jobs. Trump is clear; Biden is conflicted and nuanced on fracking and renewable energy, because he is trying to be one thing to his left flank and another to Pennsylvanians working in the energy industry. The polls predict a close race.
Trump announced that he is going to contest ballots, stop counts, accuse fraud, tie things up in courts and win that way. The Huffington Post calls it "cheating" and a "coup." Fox accuses Democrats of denying Trump his deserved victory if he is ahead on election night.
Trump did not attempt subterfuge because his brand is norm-breaking and winning by any means. It would be off-brand to be a gracious loser. He is a finagler. He cheats so he can win, and so does his team by sticking with him. No need to pretend to agree with some good-government idea like "every vote should count." The new norm is, "if you can legally stop a Democratic vote from counting, great. They lose, we win, which means America wins." They got tax cuts, immigration slowed, and two extra Supreme Court judges out of it--proof of the value of keeping eyes on the prize. Moreover, it makes Democrats crazy-- all the better, frosting on the cake.
My prediction is that court cases will delay everything in Pennsylvania, and put events on a judicial time table, and cases will find their way to federal court. Then, under the pretext of "originalism" the Court will allow some but not all ballots to be counted--or allow the Republican state legislature of Pennsylvania to appoint the electors--or though some other method will intervene to install Trump. It will be a huge constitutional cluster-mess. Republicans will insist that it was simply the letter of law at work, and those votes should never have been allowed. The Supreme Court will look more partisan than ever.
There is a premise underlying this grim prediction: When in doubt regarding Trump, expect controversy and chaos, not graciousness. He is a winner, not a good sport.
There is an escape route; this doesn't absolutely have to happen. I do not expect a Biden landslide, but if any of the southern states tip to Biden then he gets to 270 without Pennsylvania. In that case, Trump and Fox will cry foul, but a constitutional crisis will be avoided.
Wouldn't it be nice.
6 comments:
I have been saying for years that my primary hope is for a landslide in either direction so that we avoid a clusterfuck that we really do not need.
In other words after all of this turmoil nothing will change.
It might be close, therefore the electoral college will matter, and we will have the continuing question of its ability to reflect the national will.
Biden holds leads in polling in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Some states, like Iowa, are tied. Trump needs all of them to win, so if he does, polling will be more suspect than ever in the future. If these states fall to Republicans it will be due to "hidden votes" that polling can't detect.
So Democrats may lose, and face a crossroads. If the Biden/Harris ticket fails it will trigger an existential crisis in the Democratic party.
Will they reform the party by purging moderates, who will defect to the Republicans, or disavow Progressives and risk becoming marginalized? If Democrats lose it will be due to a fatal flaw in their strategy; not reconciling the divisions in the Party and relying on Trump-hate to win. If Republicans win it will be because of continuing apathy, because while the consensus is that America is becoming more secular and tolerant, there are too many who do not participate in the political process. Even with him out there in full force, the Obama coalition does not seem to be sufficiently reenergized.
All said, I hope you, me and Michael Moore, are wrong and it will be a landslide and a definitive rebuke of Regressive politics. That said Democrats had better govern wisely or Don Jr. will run in 2024 with Pirro as VP.
Another possibility is Trump winning but Democrats taking the Senate, and we have four years of inter-branch warfare. That's a fun prospect.
“If the Biden/Harris ticket fails it will trigger an existential crisis in the Democratic party.”
It should and I hope they do.
Either way, this blog will have a lot of rich, albeit troubling material to write about for a very long time. Unless of course the powers that be shut you down.
Dear Anonymous: What the fuck are you talking about?
peter c -- I was trying to be too clever. if DRT gets in, you might have noticed he and his ilk try to stifle dissent.
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