Trump apparently is losing narrowly, denying it, claiming victory, and hoping to get the Supreme Court to intervene to stop the vote count.
It probably won't work.
I published yesterday my prediction of election chaos and post-election lawsuits to try to stop the vote count. Alas, I was right. Trump went to the East Room late last night, announced that he had the election in the bag, that he had won already, a great victory, and that for some reason people are still counting votes, and those uncounted votes are theft! They are trying to steal the election.
Trump tweeted this late last night. Twitter appended the warning label to his Tweet.
I had predicted yesterday and two days prior that the election was much, much closer than the polls suggested. There was more reliable information on the state of this campaign in the number of pickup truck with Trump banners, with the number of people maskless at his rallies, and the number of people eating in bars and restaurants than there was in supposed “high quality” polls.
I warned that the Dixie Sunbelt was probably not quite ready to abandon the GOP, that Trump could win and it would likely come down to Pennsylvania. Trump had already laid the groundwork for lawsuits about Pennsylvania, and he would try to stop the vote count, to disallow ballots likely supporting Biden, or failing that, to get the Republican state legislature to declare him the winner.
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| In my inbox today |
Two facts intervene.
One is that Biden may not need to win Pennsylvania. Biden won Arizona, and if he wins three states that appear likely to tip his way--Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan-- then, with the addition of the single electoral vote from the Nebraska Congressional District that essentially represents Omaha, Biden gets to 270. Biden wins. It makes much less sense for Trump to create an electoral controversy in Pennsylvania if Biden has already won without it.
Fox News is the second problem for Trump. The election reporters on the air last night and this morning are describing an exciting horse race, with candidates in the lead, with suspense in the air, with uncounted votes to add to the totals. The results in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are coming soon, keep watching to learn the results, stay tuned. There is a message embedded in that coverage. This is a story of a horserace, not a theft. That is huge. They are not openly defying President Trump, but they are giving an alternative narrative, the Joe Biden narrative, that the election is undetermined, so let's tally the votes.
Democrats will accept--bitterly--the legitimacy of an election in which Trump got the most votes in a state. They already describe Florida as a grave disappointment, and are wondering what to do next election to fix the Cuban-American problem. The votes in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan will likely be determined soon, later today, before the narrative of lawsuits really gets going, and if Biden is clearly ahead in those states (as he is already acknowledged to be in the Omaha Congressional District and in Arizona) then the narrative switches to Biden's victory. Trump would be trying to reverse an election won by Biden.
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| Another in my inbox today |
Biden will be president of a divided government. The premise of his campaign was that Americans were tired of a chaotic presidency. Maybe not.
5 comments:
It’s not just a divided government but a bitterly divided country.
And chaos isn’t confined to the government, either.
No matter how much the FBI and the media don’t want to report it, antifa is not “just an idea” and Biden/the Democratic Party have nothing to do with its goals. Peter, you should follow @MrAndyNgo on Twitter for his daily videos of the chaos. Last night SE Portland residential neighborhoods. Saturday night the Lloyd district neighborhood where I last lived when I lived there.
Let’s step back. I’ve been hearing commentators trying to normalize all these changes to voting procedures and court interventions and acting like this has gone on throughout our history or was compelled by the virus. That’s clearly not true. Mail-in voting was pushed hard by the Democrats and they’ve filed scores of lawsuits to change the rules set by state legislatures. Unfortunately, activist courts have been more than happy to accommodate many of them and the Supreme Court failed to put its foot down. No, none of us recall a time like this when so many crucial state counts are delayed. There’s also a legitimate concern about backdoor voter harvesting in some areas. And we know for a fact that cities like Philadelphia have a problematic history. So let’s not pretend that this has been a routine election. Many of the same forces that rejected Trump’s 2016 election have tried to manipulate the system this time as well.
Well, Peter, Michael Moore, and others, you predicted it again!
There is probably nothing the courts can do to stop counting early votes being tabulated.
The real losers are the pollsters. There is just no way to actually reach a representative group of people any more, with the mix of cell phones, call-waiting, etc. I mean, they could never reach me, for example.
And to anonymous, above, voting machines have more opportunities for fraud than does mail in voting.
I am even more deeply disappointed that it is so close, that with all that is known about trump, that people still voted for him, out of a perceived need for a "strong leader" and out of the self-interest in the so-called better economy under trump. Trump for sure is a real cult figure, and I also could see that the massive rallies were telling us something. Endorphins and dopamine were flowing. I dislike intensely what it is telling us about so many of the people in this country. So sad.
Chaos: no longer just a theory, but the new normal.
#presmesoloser...loser law in some states prevents recount. Crybaby.
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