"There are no red states or blue states. We are one country. I will be president for the entire country, the United States of America."
Joe Biden, speech summary, repeatedly
Biden may be wrong, but he isn't naive. Gridlock is not inevitable.
Democrats are competitive in Georgia and Texas. Republicans are competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan. That might change everything.
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| The new map, with competitive states |
Americans can hear Biden speak of political unity and consider it wishful thinking and political blather. Oh, Joe Biden may try to be Mr. Unifier, but the political parties represent different people in a country divided, and it won't happen. Partisans on either side won't let it. Biden will try to work with Susan Collins, Lindsay Graham, and Mitt Romney, for example, hoping to get things through the gatekeeper Mitch McConnell. That in itself will infuriate the activists on the Democratic left who rue the fact that President Biden does not need Bernie Sanders' OK as much as he needs Mitch McConnell's. The political left thinks they have popular issues to promote, Medicare For All, higher taxes on the wealthy, and free college. It should be easy. It isn't easy, or it would already have been done. A majority of US Senators, elected from states where those issues are not popular, will block passage. We saw their campaigns last month: Vote for me so I can stop Sanders and AOC and Pelosi and their crazy ideas!
Gridlock.
Biden will govern from the center, but only if Mitch McConnell and the GOP will let him, and they might not. They didn't let Obama, and things are more polarized now than in 2009. But three things are different. One is that possibly the GOP is as exhausted as are Democrats by Trump-style discord. Mitch McConnell may not want to be seen as a pure obstructionist. The other is that possibly Biden's old school manner makes him more approachable and less frightening than Obama who brought cool energy and charisma to the table. There was reason to fear Obama could excite a nation and liberal change get galloping out of control. Biden, that old familiar warhorse, won't excite anyone too much, and won't be leading any gallops. He is safe to deal with.
There is a third possible reason, described below by Herb Rothschild. He is a former professor and long time peace activist, who retired in Southern Oregon and observes politics from roots in Louisiana and a close up view of the Civil Rights struggles. Rothschild describes a change in the political map, which has optimistic implications for the possibility of progress on the serious issues of the country. There are more and different battleground states. If Democrats only win in big cities on the coasts and Republicans only win big in the rural areas of the center of the country, and neither party realistically competes for the same people, then gridlock is not only possible; it is inevitable.
Guest Post by Herb Rothschild
"It's interesting to look at this election's map. What I see is a growing number of battleground states. The GOP can no longer take Arizona and Georgia for granted, and they lost the Congressional district centered on Omaha. Even Texas will require them to spend time and money there instead of simply using it as a cash register for work in other states. Iowa is getting a bit more purple. Regarding Democrats, 2016 taught them that they can no longer take Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for granted, and this election confirmed that. Add these states (and Omaha and one Congressional district in Maine) to the perennial battleground states of Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and what we see is a broader national challenge for both parties in presidential elections. I regard this development as potentially beneficial. It may force both parties to move beyond base politics.
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| Herb Rothschild |
For Democrats, it means they cannot remain only the party of the college-educated plus people of color. They will have to work harder to appeal to white working class voters and also to Hispanic voters, many of whom seem to have the same sense that hard work isn't being rewarded (I loved your Marian story in your recent blog post).
Republicans have to expand their base, too, which will be more difficult for them. Trump consolidated and magnified the identity politics of his party. He did unexpectedly well given that his approval ratings were historically low for a sitting president (they almost never exceeded 45%, as I recall). I don't think his party will be able to find a successor who can generate the fervent loyalty you rightly figured into your electoral predictions. Remembering all those other Republican hopefuls on the stage with Trump when the 2016 primary began, I don't see anyone like him on the horizon. In addition to being a disgusting human being, he has been a remarkable politician. [The only politician with whom I can compare him is Huey Long, the leftist populist who had the same touch with working people and a similar disregard for rules, though he was truly committed to helping the downtrodden, not himself.] Trump may have put his party astride a half-wild horse that only he could ride. Any attempt the party may make to find another mount may mean they will be left with none. I would say that as much as 15% of his base--the most fervent segment of it--may disperse itself into fringe movements.
Without Trump to run against in the 2022 midterms, the Democrats are facing losses on the scale of 2010. Hopefully the pandemic will be under control by then and the economy thriving. But Biden and his team will have to be skillful in conveying to the American people, almost from the beginning of his term, that the Senate Republicans are the primary obstacle to progress. He needs to make Mitch McConnell a hated figure. I hope he's not too nice to do that."
7 comments:
Sometimes comments that reflect a certain anti-Trump point of view, often written by "Anonymous" are almost but not quite eligible for publication. Sometimes they reflect a general animosity to Democrats, a suspicion that mail-in ballots are fraudulent, an opposition to Medicare for All, or a clear statement that Republicans should do everything possible to sabotage Democrats. I consider those comments useful for readers to see, even if they disagree with them.
But those potentially-useful comments often include talking points that make them unpublishable. It isn't enough to disagree with Biden. The writers need to call him a rapist. A pedophile. Writers make wild, disproven claims about Hunter or Joe Biden. One comment-writer makes submissions here, but has sexually deviant behavior top of mind, and he chooses to attribute that behavior to political figures he dislikes, so he ruins potential comment submissions by including those references.
Bottom line: if commenters want comments published they should say reasonable substantial non conspiratorial observations, and they should sign their posts. Anonymous posts with conspiracy smears and reflections on sexual behaviors get glanced at and deleted.
Nothing like a little censorship, huh, Mr. Sage? Yes, we know it's YOUR stinkin' blog.
Rather than spin and misinterpret others posts, why don't you just publish them for others to read? We are all adults here. Can't you handle the truth?
Aside from that, progressive posters continually smear and libel Trump with false allegations and name-calling, yet you cover-up charges against the Bidens. There is proof that Hunter Biden received $1.5 billion from China. Do you wish to dispute that fact? Hunter Biden is a millionaire due to his father's dirty dealings. You are the epitome of hypocrisy.
Note that the anonymous post avoided ideation on the sexual behavior he or she finds so compelling a subject. Good job! Note, too, that thie above comment had no nasty references to other commenters, also good..
Anonymous posts normally get deleted if they say foolish things. People who are aspirants for public office, or who write in the style of them, are urged to sign their posts. People who seek public office have the highest threshold of accountability for what they want placed in the public arena.
As a liberal Democrat, I hope the right and left work together. The country needs a unification of being American is more important than being a democrat or republican. I hope the rhetoric is toned down by all. It is such a relief that Trump will if not go away he will at least be lessened as important. I hope Fox News realizes for the good of the country they can go too far in their news. Calm is needed. Hate, while energizing, is destructive. Calm, boring Joe may be a relief for both sides. I hope so.
“Make Mitch McConnell a hated figure” is no way for Biden to bring us together the way he promised last night. I hope he doesn’t go the way Herb is suggesting.
Wow this is a great sentence, and metaphor.
“Trump may have put his party astride a half-wild horse that only he could ride.”
Great analysis! Thanks. The Trump message resonated because the Democrats still don’t talk to the white working class thanks to Bill Clinton
And Those Demos after him. He cut more of the Great Society of LBJ and went to bed with the corporation who ran off shore and destroyed the Union worker. Ross Perot was right “the giant sucking sound” killed the Democratic Party.. SO is the WPA THE NEW VISION, “DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS IN EVERY (POT) WINDOW OR POT IN EVERY WINDOW? Progressives...TO THE BACK OF THE BUS! Must reach across the aisle. Kissy,kiss with masks on. The rapists are still in power. Don’t grab the soap.
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