Money. Babes. Trump has it all. And he doesn't wear a mask.
“Yeah, the guys riding around with, you know, AR-15s think he is really cool. All the suburban, like, women, higher-educated people that voted Republican before, break [away from Trump to Biden], that hurts there. Then you look at the seniors — Florida and Arizona."
Joe Scarborough, MSNBC, Morning Joe
Quinnipiac University released a poll this week:
If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
This snapshot reveals some startling divides in this country.
1. One is predictable. Republicans like Trump and Democrats like Biden.
The "Never Trump" pundit class of old school Republicans who liked Ronald Reagan and balanced budgets are apparently a small minority. GOP voters are all in on Trump.
And amid the Facebook groups supporting Bernie Sanders, who call this blog "establishment," "moderate," "centrist," and therefore disgusting beyond redemption, ("Fuck you, Peter!") the actual erosion from voting Blue appears to be small, and essentially equivalent between Democrats and Republicans.
2. Gender gap: Men like Trump and women prefer Biden. Trump has a 7 point lead among men; Biden has a 18 point lead among women. The gender gap explains the Biden lead.
3. Education gap: Among white voters, college educated people prefer Biden, non-college prefer Trump. Seen more closely, Trump does not dominate among men; he dominates among non-college men. There is a 19 point difference between support for Trump or Biden depending on whether the man went to college.
Now look at this snapshot in which voters are broken out by age and race.
First, what most readers would have expected, that black voters overwhelmingly oppose Trump. White men like Trump a lot, because non-college white men like him a lot.
4. No age gap. Older voters support Biden at the same levels as younger voters. This is change. "Great again" did not give young people affordable college or health care. Trump was elected because old white men voted overwhelmingly for him. But the virus issue is changing that. Trump is up front wanting to reopen the economy now, too soon, sure, but too soon is ok with him and he gets criticized for it, thus proving his commitment to that cause. Seniors seem to recognize that he is openly trading a higher death rate among them for a a stronger economy.
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| Democrats sneer; Trump shove it right back. |
Trump still trails among the young. He earned their dislike. He isn't--yet--picking up their votes in exchange for the senior votes he is losing.
This is good news for Democrats, but Trump brings two powerful brand messages to the table.
One is rough masculinity. He earned that brand and has paid a price for it. He grabbed pussies and bragged that when you were a star they let you, and he was a star. He is married to a model. He has sex with porn stars and has the money to pay them to shut up. He he is a playboy celebrity tycoon, living the high life. The "Playboy Philosophy" of the 1960s still has traction.
He also has the brand of Mr. Strong Economy. He says we should stop worrying so much about the virus and get the economy open, and by not wearing a mask, he is doing a version of ancient generalship, leading from the front, taking risks, walking the walk. Trump not wearing a mask is political craft. It is messaging.
He is a real male, a fighter, a risk taker, a hero for the economy.
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| Mr. Tough Guy |
Women and college educated men, and people old enough to feel their own frailty and mortality, may think it foolish, and they scoff and disapprove. The more they scoff, the stronger Trump's brand becomes, because it shows him fighting against Democratic weenies. Like the Marlboro Cowboy, he is too tough to care.
Once he is through making Biden look like a creepy frail senile loser, Trump may look like the better choice, the brave hero to the working man.
This isn't over.
This isn't over.
6 comments:
"Trump was elected because old white men voted overwhelmingly for him"
and their wives and girlfriends...
The 87% of Republicans who will vote for reelection is the number to watch. As the epidemic continues and Republican state governments are increasingly seen to be ineffective, if not deadly, we might possibly see some erosion of support. Presidential approval is soft, perhaps due to an increasing realization of the administration's failures in responding to the epidemic and the revelation of the underlying weakness of the economy.
The macho facade is an artifact of the patriarchy, which has been a Regressive driver throughout this era, and the diminishing dominion of old white men. Our societies are developing into matriarchies as women continue to grow in political and economic power, a change long overdue, with the predictable resistance from un-evolved males.
These cavemen will eventually die out, unable to adapt, as Darwin predicted.
Rick said: "Our societies are developing into matriarchies as women continue to grow in political and economic power, a change long overdue, with the predictable resistance from un-evolved males." While I generally agree, I would say that the focus should be not so much on gender as on an evolved consciousness that can access what are generally considered to be "feminine" qualities. Most women presently have most men at a disadvantage here, given current cultural norms (I would rather have an "Alan Alda" as president than a "Margaret Thatcher.") We need to honor the feminine within our psyches; it alone can bring the healing our country needs.
Peter, I think the vitriol from a few Sanders' supporters may come from the perception that you represent what Thomas Frank refers to as the "professional class" (Wall Street financier types and Silicon Valley technocrats,etc.) that became establishment Democrats by embracing Bill Clinton's "third way" abandonment of the working class in the 90's. Today, except for empty platitudes and token gestures praising our "frontline workers" (all blue collar) establishment Democrats have done little to nothing for the working class. Their acquiescence to radical conservatism underlies their loyalty to big business and abandonment of the egalitarianism they used to stand for. I know many of these professionals who have not benefited from Clinton's betrayal of the working class and who have actually suffered from neoliberalism and yet who find solace in deriding the "uneducated deplorables" for their ignorance in supporting Trump and "voting against their own best interests." This conceit, at its core, is not that far from saying "I may be a poor white person, but at least I'm not black" (I may be poor but at least I'm educated).
Until we see our situation as a class struggle, as a wealth distribution problem, we will continued to get played by the duopoly on identity issues of race, gender, education, etc. and the Democratic party will remain vulnerable to the likes of the "Marlboro Man."
Andy Seles
These cavemen will eventually die out, unable to adapt, as Darwin predicted.
Given the attendance things like NASCAR and professional football, I doubt it.
Guys, (Andy., Mike) Keep in mind that "low culture" does not define what is actually happening in a society. While NASCAR and an WWE are popular they are not majority activities, along with many other pastimes, for instance, organized religion and polka nights.
Rick,
I think it was “low culture” that elected Donald Trump. A large component of that was resentment by the deplorables of their characterization by the supposed elites as “low.“
Donald Trump was their giant orange raised middle finger.
Watch out, Rick. You’re offending my knuckle dragging, mouth breathing “low culture,” Bud Light swilling, polka listening, WWE and NASCAR watching, gun toting siblings in Michigan.
Remember Michigan from the 2016 election? Words matter...
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