Burn it down, part two.

All new ballgame.  

Democrats should take no comfort in the polls being announced this week. That's history.

The protest riots in cities across America change the focus from Trump's inadequate and self-serving response to the virus, to law and order.

The Trump campaign is ecstatic.

Americans can watch the news with an odd mix of items: The stunning video of the slow death of George Floyd; the virus numbers are climbing; Trump is tweeting and protesting that his tweets are being fact checked; new reports of polls showing Biden well ahead of Trump.  

Or now the big thing: protest riots across America.

Biden had been getting stronger among three key groups of people: seniors, suburban women, and non-college men. It makes sense. The virus targets seniors and Trump is openly signaling that we are reopening the economy for better or worse, and the "worse" means seniors die. Suburban women make sense because Biden projects peace and calm rather than upset, and Trump's style is to stay in the news with daily controversy and picked fights. Non-college men have always liked Biden, the union-oriented, "regular Joe" non Ivy League, non-elitist, family-oriented Catholic who "gets" them.

That meant that Biden was on track to win back the Upper Midwest, plus maybe Arizona and Florida, with all their seniors. That was then.

Urban protest riots giveTrump a new focus for positioning himself as the advocate for law and order, and that issue is of particular importance to the three groups that had moved to Biden.

Suburban women, with good reason, had viewed Trump as a disturber and fight-picker. Biden was "normalcy." A good husband. A peacemaker. Families choose to live in suburbs because they want safety and a little space from their neighbors. Suburbs represent diversity with a buffer, your own neighborhood, your own car. The protest riots remind suburban voters exactly what they did not like about cities and Democrats: they don't keep you safe enough. Now Trump's pugnaciousness flips polarity. Until the protest riots, Trump appeared to be the source of upset; now, amid them, he seems like the kind of person one needs during a riot. That is the Trump message: in times like these, it takes a rough sort of guy like Trump. 

Seniors, with good reason, had seen Trump as being willing to risk their lives. Now, amid news of arson and looting, seniors are reminded of the riots of their young adulthood. Riots killed people and destroyed cities. It set in motion two generations of urban blight, disfunction, and social pathologies. Seniors lived that history. Democrats, with their need to accommodate their black voters, seemed "soft" of black violence, then and again now. Republicans are full throated in defense of "law and order." It has a racial subtext but careful advocates of the GOP message focus on the the violence, not race. Seniors have a practiced mental map for this, Democrats excuse disorder; Republican don't.

Non-college voters, with good reason, had seen Trump as a big talker about the working man, who then favored policies that rewarded the wealthy. The "working person" of 2020 is less likely a man in a factory and more likely a woman working in food processing plant or health care facility, "essential" positions put at risk of catching the virus, or a worker in an office, restaurant, or hair salon, where they were laid off and have struggled to get unemployment claims processed. That discontent is now overshadowed by scenes of protest, arson, and looting. Traditionally this demographic has been least comfortable with diversity and most open to racial stereotyping. Trump is already on this, calling the protesters "thugs," which is the current dog whistle euphemism for violent  "other." Trump "gets" their fear of "thugs."

There is one silver lining possibility for Democrats. If one of the black female potential VP candidates can come forward immediately and condemn/plead with protesters to go home, to make the case that this is counterproductive, it injures the memory of George Floyd, and it is not who we are. Then, if in fact the protests stop promptly, then Biden could choose that person as VP.  He would have the racial peacemaker ticket.

But all the VP candidates have complicated pasts and there is no reason to think the protesters will listen to any politician. This fire needs to burn itself out.

Trump is smiling.