He inherited a recovery. He is a skilled showman.
Democrats need to face reality. He is on track to win re-election.
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| Trump TV Ad |
Current national polls suggest Trump remains unpopular. Democrats are deceived. Remember the electoral college. In areas where he is unpopular he is very unpopular, so that runs up the numbers in states Trump is going to lose anyway.
He is popular enough in swing states.
Voters aren't as down on Trump as people in anti-Trump strongholds think they are. In urban and college town centers of influence the disapproval of Trump is so strong that they send a message received as implied contempt for people who support Trump. That feeds the "deplorable racist rube Trump supporter" meme. Those people know who they are: regular Americans.
Fox milks their resentment constantly. No one likes being thought deplorable for thinking what they think, and some of what Trump says is popular. The American economy feels strong to a lot of people, although not everyone, especially the working poor, a low voter turnout group.This economy works best for the people who do vote, for the middle class and up, for people with investments, and a job with benefits. For them, the economy is indeed good.
Fox milks their resentment constantly. No one likes being thought deplorable for thinking what they think, and some of what Trump says is popular. The American economy feels strong to a lot of people, although not everyone, especially the working poor, a low voter turnout group.This economy works best for the people who do vote, for the middle class and up, for people with investments, and a job with benefits. For them, the economy is indeed good.
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| From the TV Ad |
There is reason to think this economy is held aloft by an unsustainable monetary policy of essentially zero interest rates, a policy that distorts asset prices and mis-prices risk, resulting in there being too much debt. But so far, so good. Democrats need to face the reality that if there is a crisis coming, it will likely arrive after the election.
Democrats tell a story of economic misery. Every single candidate cites a version of the statistic of family fragility, that half of American families are a $400 or $500 expense away from disaster. It may be true, but people have charge cards to pay those bills. More debt. Still, coffee places selling $4 single shot skinny cappuccinos and $5 almond milk lattes are crowded. A great many consumers are not acting distressed. They are carrying the economy, and they are still spending.
Republican strategist Rick Wilson wrote an extended rant telling Democrats to wise up or lose, published as a book, Running Against the Devil. He described the ad that Trump will show. It says it will mimic the "Morning in America" ad that Reagan used in his re-election.
"He'll shamelessly lard his ads with the faces of African Americans, Hispanic, Asian,LGBTQ, and disadvantaged American of all stripes. It will be a Benetton ad of soft-focus close-ups of diverse and beautiful American faces. . . . Here's the script to make your brain melt:
Under President Donald Trump, America is great again.
Stock markets and 401ks are at all-time highs.
More people are at work in good jobs than ever.
The middle class is doing better than ever.
The Trump tax cut is working for families.
We have record African American employment.
Wages for women are breaking records.
Respected judges sit on the highest courts.
Our military is tougher and stronger.
Our vets are cared for at last.
We're safer and respected in the world again.
Our borders are protected from drugs, disease, and human suffering.
President Donald Trump. Keeping America Great, forever."
That was his prediction. Here is the reality, his NASCAR ad. Thirty seconds.
Watch:
A great many Democrats feel that the country is in decline, that the big story in America is income inequality and the distress of people in the broad middle class. They think governmental norms are being broken, that authoritarian rule is replacing representative democratic rule. But there is a message to Democrats in the fact that Congress did not stick up for its own power of the purse and power of investigation of the executive. People like the president more than they like the Congress, and Republicans know it. Yes, the Democratic message is that big money and special interests have corrupted our government, but that mostly damages the credibility of Congress. Americans consider Congress the swamp. President Trump sold himself as being too rich to be corrupted. Now, in office, he demonstrates that he is shamelessly selfish, which is to say self-directed, and therefore not actually corrupt. It works for him.
Plus he delivers the judges conservatives want, and the economy is good and he takes credit. That is enough. The ad is a story of progress and pride. Meanwhile, Democrats are talking despair.
Is his message effective? At a time of an improving economy--as long as a recession, or financial collapse, or the credit bubble doesn't pop--yes, at least in swing states to voters who are working and who feel pride in America.
That is a majority, maybe a landslide. It was for Reagan.
That is a majority, maybe a landslide. It was for Reagan.
8 comments:
Yes, by pandering to people one crosses the street to avoid, Regressives have taken control of the government.
Again...
"Popularity" in this context is measured by how willing one is to debase themself, lie and cheat to gain an advantage. We have many examples of such people all around us; shady salesmen, charity bookkeepers who embezzle, junk medicine, and on and on. It's the snake oil and the bearded lady of time immemorial, and there's a direct line back to the irrefutable truth that the Sun goes around the Earth.
This is the sort of popularity that most people find repulsive.
I don't care if the economy is great or not (it's not: easy credit and depressed interest rates create false prosperity), this is still creepy and disconcerting and leads to decline. every. time.
2008 anyone?
Sanders and Warren's popularity puzzles some, but could it simply be that, thanks to them and others speaking out, more people are becoming aware of the risks the society is facing? Risks that are not mitigated by compromising with and accommodating Regressives.
Well said, Rick. This is a battle for the very soul of the nation. We will see if Americans are up for the Truth or the fantasy...the false comfort of Trumpworld. Change will come either now, with a respectful revolution or, if we pretend GDP and GNP are the measures of household sustainability, a militant revolution...history will not be denied.
Andy Seles
Andy, I think your idea of the " false comfort of Trumpworld" is just another divisive narrative. Their comfort (I'm projecting here) is likely quite real to them. In other words, it comes off as stereotyping; both condescending and disrespectful to "the other side". So its not very productive, even though I agree with your precept. In a sense, we need to patronize those we disagree with or meaningful discussion quickly becomes like the Jerry Springer Show. Idiots quarreling and nasty name-calling. I'd like to think we libs are better than that (now I'm condescending, whew!)
But on to the election! Bloomberg / Stacy Abrams! There was a pic of the two together in a prior Sage post.Both my lizard brain and my rational brain went wild when I saw that image. Stacy blows me away. She's so good, if you've ever heard her speak. And she totally has what Bloomy needs to win.
I'm not a huge Bloomberg fan. But if we really care about winning, we need to be smart and put our ideological purity on the back burner this time around. This seems more like a slug-fest than an election.
Posted on behalf of someone commenting as Inkberrow:
“I thought it really would be a lot more inclusive than that. It’s not a safe place to express differences.”
He added: “I would expect that sort of thing at a Jeff Golden or Pam Marsh rally.”
This is a portion of the original comment, much of which was plagiarized from the NYPost. I delete plagerized comments.
Peter Sage
My dream team is Bloomberg and Stacy! I do not want to loose any Senators that we now have in the Senate. Also, managing 1,000,000 employees is best left to someone with great management skills.......I love Bernie, Elizabeth and all the candidates on stage, but Bloomy knows Trump and can stick it to him.
It would be difficult to come up with a ticket more likely to antagonize the swing voters in the swing states than Bloomberg/Abrams.
I think that Klobuchar is the Democrats’ only hope.
It is almost laughable that op-ed columnists of many newspapers are suddenly expressing concerns about the serious threat of Bernie Sanders, who is doing extremely well these days. And this, just after the Senate Republicans have reduced our branches of government to two – the executive and judicial.
Though my heart is with Bernie Sanders, the cynical but sane realist that I am, my winning ticket to replace our president is Michael Bloomberg and Adam Schiff. We would all then be assured that our democratic/capitalist system and separation of powers will stay in the hands of intelligent, experienced, law-abiding and decent men. Their records of accomplishment have long been there to see for all of us, and neither of them is afraid of President Trump or the dark forces, which now include our frightened senators who enable him.
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