The meaning is in who loses.
Prediction:
Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren will lose.
Two numbers will be reported out of the results later this evening.
One number is the raw percentages of the vote for each candidate. The second is the number of delegates assigned to each candidate, assigned only to those candidates getting 15% or more of the vote. The first number forces voters, donors, the punditry, and candidates to face the hard reality of who actually gets votes. Dreams die. Hopes fade.
The second number defines a cut point. It isn't death, not yet, but it defines something almost as certain, futility. If you don't get to 15% you are a loser.
It would not have seemed probable a year ago or even a month ago, but Bernie Sanders will have decisively out muscled Elizabeth Warren. She gave voters a viable choice, a younger candidate, a female candidate, a more conventionally branded candidate, a presumably more electable candidate, and voters want the old guy, with the Socialist brand and all. Voters chose.
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| Where it begins: NH Secretary of State |
When the dust settles Amy Klobuchar may survive to fight another day. People like options and Pete Buttigieg hasn't yet sealed the deal.
Deus ex machina.* The big winner--which this blog will consider shortly--is Michael Bloomberg.
*Deus ex machina is an unexpected power that abruptly enters a story, used as a plot device to resolve a seemingly hopeless situation.
Kevin Stine is an astute observer of politics. He has been a Medford City Councilperson since 2014, and was recently elected Council President. He is a veteran of nine years in the navy, serving much of it in the submarine service.
Kevin Stine is an astute observer of politics. He has been a Medford City Councilperson since 2014, and was recently elected Council President. He is a veteran of nine years in the navy, serving much of it in the submarine service.
Guest Post by Kevin Stine
Vote and count ballots.
"The first primary. Unlike a caucus, there is no oddball standing in corners of a room seeing if your first choice has “viability”. No apps. Just vote and go about your day. Most polling locations close at 7PM EST, and they are rather quick at counting ballots.There is a downside to the lack of second round viability choices. Presidential Primaries are all about obtaining delegates to the National Convention in Milwaukee. Delegates are awarded only to candidates get 15% or more of the vote in Congressional districts or statewide. New Hampshire has two Congressional districts, so in theory a candidate could get 14% in both districts and come away with 0 of the 24 delegates awarded.
The Democratic field is still very large. There are the 7 candidates on the last debate stage, but also some candidates with a New Hampshire-or-Bust strategy. They will fail, but will get a few percentage points, which make it a bit harder for the candidates in 3rd to 7th to get any delegates. Those candidates are Michael Bennet, Tulsi Gabbard, and Deval Patrick.
Andrew Yang is also banking on a good finish and does not have a ticket to the next debate.
Andrew Yang is also banking on a good finish and does not have a ticket to the next debate.
I’ll predict a finishing order, but I think only the first two candidates will reach viability. There will also be voters writing in “Bloomberg” which will further push down the numbers of everyone.
1st - Bernie Sanders – Bernie is the clear favorite here. He will chug along to Nevada carrying a front-runner label. Divided field and all, getting 30% of the vote does not make him look particularly intimidating, but does put the pressure on some of the more center-left candidates and voters to coalesce around a candidate. If he gets 40% or higher, we could see some big dominos fall.
2nd – Pete Buttigieg – Riding the wave of a stronger-than-expected Iowa finish, strong fundraising, and organization, New Hampshire is a good state for Mayor Pete. He’s the biggest wildcard moving forward, as a pair of top 2 finishes will help him soak up certain voters favoring Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even Joe Biden.
2nd – Pete Buttigieg – Riding the wave of a stronger-than-expected Iowa finish, strong fundraising, and organization, New Hampshire is a good state for Mayor Pete. He’s the biggest wildcard moving forward, as a pair of top 2 finishes will help him soak up certain voters favoring Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even Joe Biden.
3rd – Elizabeth Warren – This is a must-win state for Elizabeth Warren, and she’s not going to win. Finishing 3rd might keep her in the race, but even her most devoted supporters know you have to win somewhere. Her polling in Nevada and South Carolina has her in the top tier, but nowhere near a victory. She could very well drop out before Super Tuesday.
4th – Amy Klobuchar – In a normal primary season, she would have dropped out after Iowa. She’s a Senator from a border state of Iowa, finished 5th, and claimed she “beat expectations”. Like Warren’s issue, she has to win somewhere. She’s had some good debates, and I think her performance moves her past Biden. For all the heat Buttigieg gets about black voters, Amy is consistently at 0%, including the Quinnipiac poll released on Monday. There’s a John Kasich vibe here as she’s hoping to outlast everyone else with her smaller campaign, and become a consensus candidate.
5th – Joe Biden – He literally started the last debate saying he’s going to “take a hit” in New Hampshire, regarding the results. That’s a great way to lower expectations, and a terrible way to win an election. A candidate can be inevitable until they show they aren’t. Biden’s whole campaign is staring blankly at South Carolina, hoping that the strong support he has in the polls with black voters holds, while he’s not on the pedestal in Iowa or NH.
5th – Joe Biden – He literally started the last debate saying he’s going to “take a hit” in New Hampshire, regarding the results. That’s a great way to lower expectations, and a terrible way to win an election. A candidate can be inevitable until they show they aren’t. Biden’s whole campaign is staring blankly at South Carolina, hoping that the strong support he has in the polls with black voters holds, while he’s not on the pedestal in Iowa or NH.
Others:
6th – Andrew Yang
7th – Tulsi Gabbard
8th – Tom Steyer
9th – Michael Bennet"
7 comments:
"She gave voters a viable choice, a younger candidate, a female candidate, a more conventionally branded candidate, a presumably more electable candidate, and voters want the old guy, with the Socialist brand and all. Voters chose."
Sen. Warren has been in Sen. Sander's shadow from the start, however, her support has been steady since her "IT girl" media attention faded some time ago. To me this shows support for a more common sense approach to the issues Sen. Sanders has raised along with some discomfort with his personal power agenda. They both are victims of Regressive demonizing, including some from their own party. I'm cool with Bernie, if that's where it's headed, but there is still a ways to go. Latest polling has him winning by 4 points which should improve if he is the nominee.
You are absolutely right. Sen. Warren should be more attractive to Progressive voters and yet, so far, they are choosing the more traditional (old white male) candidate. Go figure. Seems very risky to me on all fronts, with the election depending on a "blue no matter who" landslide that would be satisfying, but far from a certainty.
If Bernie is the nominee, even more the winner, I'll eat every word I've ever uttered.
“Inkberrow” posted here a comment that was a copy and paste of a news article. I have deleted it. Do not post as comments copies of news articles.
"Sen. Warren should be more attractive to Progressive voters and yet, so far, they are choosing the more traditional (old white male) candidate."
Beause progressives are about policy and reliability, not identity politics.
Warren back peddled on M4A.
She doesn't have a record of fighting for people.
She recently slanders Sanders in a hep effort to dig herself out of falling numbers.
"with the election depending on a "blue no matter who" landslide"
That is not what it ids depending on.
It is depending on the Dem party putting up someone that can draw in independents like myself.
Warrens half measures proposals, flip flopping, and slanderous attacks will not do that.
A "Centrist" which is real code for moderate Conservative, like Pete or Biden will not cut it either, and if the Dems put up a billionaire authoritarian like Bloomberg, you can kiss the election goodbye
What you do, is up to you.
What the DNC does is up to the DNC.
Regardless, I will be voting for Sanders in the general, even if that means I am writing him in
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg publicly claimed that cops across the country could use a “Xerox” description to identify suspected murderers — and also admitted that his “stop-and-frisk” policy led the NYPD to target minority kids in minority neighborhoods, a newly unearthed recording revealed Tuesday.
“Ninety-five percent of murders, murderers and murder victims fit one M.O. You can just take a description, Xerox it, and pass it out to all the cops,” Bloomberg told the Aspen Institute in 2015.
“They are male, minorities, 16 to 25. That’s true in New York, that’s true in virtually every city (inaudible).”
Bloomberg — who apologized for “stop-and-frisk” last year, shortly before becoming a Democratic candidate for president — said that “one of the unintended consequences is people say, ‘Oh my God, you are arresting kids for marijuana that are all minorities.'”
“Yes, that’s true. Why? Because we put all the cops in minority neighborhoods. Why do we do it? Because that’s where all the crime is,” he said.
Thank you "unknown" soldier for Bernie. Sally, I suggest a lite balsamic dressing to go with your fedora (LOL).
So-called "moderate" or "centrist" liberals are either more concerned about their Wall Street investments or so focused on going Trump-lite that they miss the opportunity to enlist independent voters, NAVs and "No Party Preference" voters. There is a reason why the Democratic Party has lost members over the decades; time to get them back with a progressive platform and candidate!
Andy Seles
Andrew Yang suspended his long-shot presidential bid on Tuesday night as the results for the New Hampshire came in, a report said
Yang will announced the suspension of the campaign in a speech to his supporters from Granite State, sources told CNN.
“I am so proud of this campaign,” he tweeted. “Thank you to everyone who got us here.”
Early results from New Hampshire showed Yang trailing all of the other candidates.
Yang, a businessman, ran a campaign centered around his pledge of “universal basic income” which would give every American citizen $1,000 a month.
Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are next. See Ya!
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