British warning

     

BBC News:

"It could hardly have been a worse night for Labor, as one by one the rock solid wall of heartlands lines crumbled into dust."  

   

Quick observations and takeaways:

One: Low approval numbers are not dispositive.

Boris Johnson was even slightly more disliked than is Trump. Johnson had a net disapproval rating of negative 12. He was supported by 35%; 47% disapproved of him; 16% were neutral. Everyone had heard of him.

Only 16% of people thought he was a good role model. Only 19% agreed that he keeps his promises. Only 25% thought he was respectful to women. More people thought he was a bad leader (41%) than a good leader (35%)  Click: YouGov

Yet they voted for his party.


Takeaway: A low approval rating does not mean that people will not vote for Trump again, if they think his policies make it worth it to overlook his eccentricities or criminality, and if they dislike the opposition even more. Republicans are getting the policies they want and he has contempt for the people voters don't like either. And by election day, voters will have seen a billion dollars worth of publicity saying the Democrat is a dangerous criminal.


Two: Voters prefer a plan rather than muddled gridlock.
Johnson stood for breaking away from Europe and UK sovereignty, whatever the cost, even though a majority of people in Britain were evenly divided on the issue. The UK had been in political gridlock on the Brexit issue and indecision and irresolution was not popular. Johnson seemed decisive.The opposition leader was Jeremy Corbin, who seemed wishy washy on Brexit, because he said he would work on the issue and try to find some better outcome, but it wasn't clear what. 

Takeaway: Voters get tired of uncertainty. There is a risk if Democrats seem more interested in impeachment than in communicating that they are solving problems. There is a risk, too, to advancing tax and re-distribution proposals that seem unlikely to be passed into law.




Three: The immigration issue is a powerful motivator, linked to cultural pride and national identity.

One word of caution

The Labor Party in the UK has been shifting from a party of blue collar workers in industrial areas into an urban party, popular around London and in college towns. It is a party that appeals to white collar educated people who are succeeding in the global economy. The conservative Tory Party, meanwhile, was making inroads to displaced, frustrated industrial workers. This is similar to the trend in the US, too. Johnson had a one-two message that appealed to industrial workers: maintaining social benefits, not austerity, and immigration. The Brexit issue appealed to feelings of patriotism and sovereignty. 

Takeaway: In the US, Democrats have pushed each other into positions that make them vulnerable to the charge that they support open borders because they criticize any measure that would secure them. It leaves them open to the charge they care more about immigrants than they do distressed native born people already here.

This is a warning for Democrats. Immigration, sovereignty, and common culture are potent, motivating issues. It isn't just about income distribution. 




Four: Going left may not work.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sent words of encouragement to Jeremy Corbin prior to the election, saying that the youth vote would win the day for Labor. It didn't. Corbin was perceived as too far left, with plans for government takeover of new industries that seemed unrealistic and intrusive.

Click: The Nation says "yes." But watch out.

Even Biden--who is roundly criticized by other candidates and by the activist core of Democrats for being too far left--would in fact be the most liberal/progressive president ever elected in America, were he in fact to be elected. (Activists who cite FDR ignore his alliance with white southern segregationists, his refusal to back anti-lynching legislation, his refusal to include domestic labor in Social Security, and work requirements embedded in all need-based programs. Eleanor Roosevelt was a liberal; FDR was a moderate, even for his times.) The progressive youth vote did not show up.

Voters do not trust corporate elites, but they do not trust government either. 

Takeaway: Moderate, nervous old people vote. Young progressives may not. There is a risk of going too far left.