Short takes from New Hampshire

Filing season in New Hampshire.

I am here to watch it up close.

Filing: To be on the ballot in New Hampshire a candidate needs to sign an affidavit saying they are a member of the party in which they are filing, plus deposit $1,000 with the New Hampshire Secretary of State. There is a two week filing window, starting on October 30. Candidates come to Concord, go upstairs to the second floor of the state house, push past demonstrators pro and con, and then give a speech somewhere close by to supporters. Anyone can attend.

From one of several candidate tracking sites

Beto: He is listed on some of the Candidate Tracker websites with events in New Hampshire but won't be here. He dropped out. I had watched him fill rooms with enthusiastic crowds, but Beto O'Rourke could not translate that into polling success. 

Beto's message was generational (it's our turn) and pro-immigrant (the El Paso success story as he told it) which was neither unique nor motivating. His media splash on the skateboard and Vogue defined him as trivial, and voters had the alternative of Mayor Pete Buttigieg who looks and sounds more serious. Buttigieg talks; he doesn't shout. Beto spoke with animation, pounding his arms and shouting, as if microphones don't work. 

Crowd enthusiasm did not translate either to early state or national polling success. His call to ban and confiscate AR-15s came across as desperate. He experimented with saying "fucked up" and sold tee shirts for $30 with "f------ed up" repeated on it, but that, too seemed desperate.

Ultimately he solidified his brand as an unserious person.

Schedules: Biden will be here, file, and then give a speech near the state capital. That's it. Meanwhile, Marianne Williamson, Andrew Yang, John Delaney, and some other candidates with no real potential for winning have multiple meetings, driving 50 and 100 miles to small towns in remote parts of the state to do events. It would take a miracle for this to be anything but the prelude to a book.

Democratic voters want "electability" 

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are not hopeless candidates. They have a shot. It wouldn't take a miracle; it would take a political mishap in the campaigns of Sanders, Warren, or Biden. They, too, have an active schedule. Buttigieg is here for 4 days, doing a bus tour, conspicuously walking the streets shaking hands in small towns. 

A strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire--beating Biden--makes him the giant killer. Buttigieg would be solidified as the archetypal David, ready to take on Goliath Trump. (But what about the gay thing? Buttigieg vs. Trump is a good matchup. Trump is the libertine.)

Is it hopeless for Buttigieg and Klobuchar? The NY Times poll that shows that only Joe Biden beats Trump in the swing states means they have reason to stay in. Democratic voters are getting a clear idea what Sanders and Warren are saying, and in a matchup against Trump they look weak in the states that will likely decide the election. Voters are picking Biden instead, gaffes, warts, and all. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are building their brands as the people who are the new, improved gaffe-free versions of Biden. All they need is for Biden to self destruct for for one or both of them to win in New Hampshire. 

That is easy to imagine.