Biden, an earnest old man

Conversations on the exit:

Biden at Town Hall, New London, NH

"It was a yawn."

"He seems really older than I thought he would be. I think I am going with Mayor Pete."

"He needs a new communication director, or he needs to listen to the one he has. He rambled on and on."

Their impressions were the same as mine. I am sorry to report this.

The Biden campaign worked to be sure it was a packed house. Every person in line got an email, a text message, and then a phone call between 8:00 and 9:00 p.m. the night before, confirming they would be there. The fire marshall closed the room at 280 people. Another 150 had to go to a remote overflow room. There were college students on stage, behind Biden. The audience consisted largely of people my age. I am 70.

He has strengths. He has institutional support, earned through long service as a pro-union Senator and Vice President. The International Firefighters Union formally endorsed him and he was in New Hampshire to meet firefighters, in front of over thirty members of the media.

Biden at Firefighter Chili feed

He projects something appealing in this era of Trump, warm empathetic kindness and humanity. He is pleading for America to do better, to be better. We need to respect working people because a job gives a person dignity and self respect. We need to educate our kids better. We need to respect women more, and protect women both in the law and in the culture. We need to do infrastructure better. We need to make health care more accessible. We need to tax corporations more, but not too much, just more. We need to work with allies, not fight with them. We need good trade deals that make protecting the environment a consideration. We need trade unions and a $15 minimum wage. We need to deal with climate change. We need to set an example with clean energy. And more, much more.

The message to tease out of all of this is:

   1. He and Barrack Obama were a team.

   2. He wants policies that move America somewhat to the left, but not too much.

   3. He has lots of experience.

He has weaknesses.  For some Democrats his weakness is his moderation at a time we need real change; for others that is a strength. He positions himself to the left of Obama--continuing the liberal progress under the Obama years. Net-net, I don't consider his message the real problem.

Biden Town Hall Audience, Saturday afternoon.

The problem is him. It is not that he is age 76. It is that he is an old 76. 

He rambles. He communicates empathy but not rigor or energy. He sounds tired.

Either he has chosen to surround himself with people who just "let Joe be Joe" or else he ignores people who give him the advice he needs to hear. He needs to look sharp. Either way, it is a bad sign. 

His responses to questions were free association rambles, going on for five to eight minutes. The unspoken message is weakness and lack of focus. It communicates his hopes and longings, not his intentions. He is pleading: America, we need to be good again. He communicates at effort at virtue, but not strength and vitality.

He come across as herbivore prey to Trump the carnivore. 

I believe Biden's strength in the polls are based on familiarity and the fact that he represents a point of view that is to the right of the Sanders/Warren progressive lane, and there are a lot of people who want that. The more people see Biden, the weaker he will seem, in my opinion. They will want his policies, but not him. He won't wear well.

Was there anything clearly different between this Town Hall and the other two that I have seen in Iowa, when my impressions were more positive? No. Nothing big. Maybe it is me. But I share my impression. This time he was a bit more vague, a bit more rambling. The comparison with other candidates is less favorable. Biden had more time to get this right, and in fact he got worse.

Here are 5 minutes of his much longer answer to a question he was posed. This is one of the shorter responses:https://youtu.be/-k9BCNAwvDM  

It is also what he didn't do. He talked about his son, Beau, and his brain cancer, and the grief he felt. It was a blow. He did not describe these family tragedies as having energized him nor to have re-dedicated him to carrying on with purpose. Quite the opposite. It was a wound.

More importantly, he didn't bring up his son Hunter. He didn't address that elephant in the room. If Biden doesn't control the narrative of Hunter Biden then Donald Trump surely will.