Trump has the story he wants, and the one he will sell:
It was a witch-hunt by Democrats to reverse the votes of the 63 million people who voted for Trump, and he was completely exonerated.
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| "Exonerated" |
Danger! Danger!
The Democratic response could backfire.
Attorney General William Barr summarized the Mueller Report in such a way that Trump can claim victory. The headline story is "no collusion." First impressions matter. Barr did the job he was hired to do.
The pro-Trump media are doing high fives. The Trump team calls it a victory for Trump, a victory for the 63 million people in "Fox Nation," and best of all, a humiliation of the media people who had said the Mueller investigation would find something criminal on Trump. Losers!
The rest of the media are saying hey-wait, there's more. Of course there is more.
There is more in the Mueller Report itself, and in House investigations, and in whatever the US Attorney for the Southern District in New York finds about financial irregularities, plus what the New York Attorney General finds.
There is enough to talk about for two years.
There is a message trap ahead for Democrats. The message they think they are sending won't be the one they actually send.
Democrats and the media will want to "do their duty" and be seen doing it, especially if it looks like they are good guys and Trump is a shady crook. First thing will be to look closely at the Mueller Report, and flesh out what Barr did not share. House Oversight committees will investigate and member Democrats will be on TV talking about that. Free media.
There will be financial irregularities in banking and in taxes found by other investigations. This is a given. Trump is a New York real estate operator with shady connections to lenders, some of whom are Russian. Democrats will want to get on TV to explain how dangerous this is. More free media.
Meanwhile, the Trump-skeptical mainstream media are hastily backtracking by saying that Mueller was not, after all, the silver bullet, and that there are multiple other areas of concern. They can redeem themselves by having panels discussing the implications of other ongoing investigations. Big panels, lots of nuance.
Problem: The big message going out would be that Democrats are prosecutorial nitpickers and have nothing to do but dump on Trump.
It does not matter, politically, that these are not trivial nitpicks, that obstruction of justice was something Clinton was impeached over and Obama would have been, had he done a fraction of this. Everyone already knows Trump is a shady self-interested authoritarian crook. His supporters actually like him for it, and persuadable swing voters don't care. What matters is whether Trump is on their side--not whether he is a shady con man.
The marginal voters don't particularly care about how much Trump cheated on taxes or falsified records to get bank loans. Lots of people consider those "venal sins," things they do themselves. Under-report cash income? Presenting high values when making insurance claims? They may not be proud of Trump, but they aren't going to vote against him for it, not if he is working to bring back jobs.
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| So easy to do. So wrong. |
What should Democratic politicians do? A hard thing. Get off TV talking about Trump's multiple misbehaviors.
It will be hard because it is the one thing that unifies Democrats. It seems so easy and the media so willing, but don't. Let civil service prosecutors be the ones talking about Trump's misbehaviors and getting free air time. I said it would be hard.
Instead, try to get onto TV to talk about controversial things in which there is no Democratic voter consensus: tariffs and jobs and taxes and infrastructure, and health care and a fair shake for that family in Canton or Grand Rapids or Scranton or Orlando. The media will want to talk about Trump. Instead, talk about Democratic solutions to current problems. Do that, and you will look like a serious alternative to Trump. Talk about Trump misbehavior and you will look like a tiresome nitpicker with nothing to offer. Trump says he has something to offer. Offer something better, with more credibility.
A simple rule of thumb to remember: The marginal voter already knows Trump is shady and he does not care.
7 comments:
I think you have substantially understated the danger Democrats are facing. Our party is capable of self-induced collapse that, like our unbridled attacks on Reagan over the Iran-Contra scandal, leads to a 12 year GOP reign of misery and backlash against liberalism. I hope Pelosi can restrain Schiff, Nadler and the handful of other media hounds who will otherwise push us off the cliff.
You mean focus on concrete material benefits for the working class instead of just blowing smoke with RussiaRussiaRussia?
Projection: the art of concealing your lack of substance by calling the other side names ...
Something stinks about all this.
Barr's letter says little about Flynn, Manafort, et all, and WTF they were up to with their Russian contacts. Trump is content to be seen as a dope surrounded by crooks, which is why is not he is not explicitly exonerated, but from what exactly? Nothing about the Moscow Tower either, so it's not connected?
Barr's integrity is highly suspect given the omissions or the last two years of investigative journalism have been wrong. Which?
Probably the most truly troubling trend I see in your conclusions, is the idea that “our tribe winning” (and the other side “losing”) has become our highest civic ideal. Almost everything I read or hear is an attack on the other. Perhaps in our generation, we’ve seen the great democratic experiment run its course; Where enlightened self-interest has devolved to winning at any cost, even to our own destruction? We could learn something from the Sunnis and the Shiites.
Peter said: "Instead, try to get onto TV to talk about controversial things in which there is no Democratic voter consensus: tariffs and jobs and taxes and infrastructure, and health care and a fair shake for that family in Canton or Grand Rapids or Scranton or Orlando. The media will want to talk about Trump. Instead, talk about Democratic solutions to current problems. Do that, and you will look like a serious alternative to Trump. Talk about Trump misbehavior and you will look like a tiresome nitpicker with nothing to offer. Trump says he has something to offer. Offer something better, with more credibility."
Spot on, Peter! As recently as yesterday I said the whole Russia thing was a big, fat nothingburger, yet liberals who simplistically identify themselves as NOT TRUMP and refuse to discuss the important issues of our day cling to the Mueller report as a life preserver if not an addiction to "reality show-like drama" promulgated by MSM.
Americans need to understand that their pocketbook issues are directly the result of governance...they need to "get woke" and get involved locally and nationally.
Andy Seles
We are experiencing Déjà vu all over again. In my opinion, the left has written it's self a failing script. We now campaign for the right. We create their narrative for them. We eat our own on a regular basis and have created purity tests for everyone that no candidate could ever pass.. We have developed cult followings behind candidates that have track records of failure and divisiveness and have taken to shouting down anyone that has a different opinion or candidate preference. The hypocrisy is mind-boggling. We have the right moral compass but can't implement moral high ground because of our compass. The GOP is not winning these elections the Dems and the far left are losing them. The left is dysfunctional, it has no leaders and it has no plan. We are about to re-elect Trump and have done all the heavy lifting for him ... We are our own worst enemy.
Attorney General Barr did his appointed job, and his summary on the Mueller report of "No Collusion" is being spun by Trump and allies as "Total Exoneration". However, as reported in the New Yorker: "No Conspiracy, No Exoneration: The Conclusions from the Mueller Report" — "'While this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.'
"Although the Attorney General used the phrase 'does not exonerate him' on the question of obstruction, the President refused any such complication, tweeting, 'No Collusion, No Obstruction, Complete and Total EXONERATION. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!' So as usual, Trump is again lying about even the results of the Mueller report, to spin the story his way and create his preferred "truthiness" before we can see the actual report.
You have to wonder why Trump AND his cronies feel the need to consistently lie to the public about the Russian collusion thing. Trump helping Don Jr. craft a lie to cover up their June meeting with Russian agents bringing dirt on Hillary. Trump lying about doing a deal for the Trump tower in Moscow just before the election in 2016. Trump denying any coordination with the Kremlin about the stolen Democrat's emails about Hillary, while asking Russia in public to find and publish them (which they soon did). Trump meeting with Russian agents and ambassadors, and expressly denying any notes to be kept by interpreters. Trump has openly coordinated with the Kremlin, and then lied to the public about it. Trump's son Don Jr. and Son-in-law Jared also lied to Congress about it. More than six of Trump's officers have plead guilty or been convicted of helping with Russia's election-meddling, including Trumps Security Advisor, campaign chairman Manifort, and lawyer-fixer Cohen.
The fact remains that Trump and cronies coordinated with the Russian Kremlin to help him get elected, then lied about it to the American people; so Trump is a traitor to America. Trump's presidency is illegitimate. He is a fraud. Trump is a terrible disaster as acting president, doing irreparable harm to our nation by trumpeting hate and fear.
So I do not believe the simple summary from Barr, that there was no "Collusion". It is just a play on words. The collusion or coordination or cooperation was done right out in plain sight, so it can't be denied. Apparently collusion is only collusion when it is done in secret. Collusion done in public is not conspiracy, since conspiracy by definition must be secret.
And yet, it must be admitted according to Barr's summary of Mueller that there was "No Collusion". For this reason, I must apologize to Trump, and say "I'm Sorry: --that you are such a Terrible president."
Pete is right, that what we really need to talk about is how Americans now need to repair the damage done by Trump and his know-nothing Cabinet. The list of transgressions is long: kidnapping immigrant children, usurping Congressional funding powers to make US pay for a uselessly outmoded Mexican wall, promoting hate-groups and white supremacists, stirring up racial hatred against other religions, facilitating Bankers to exploit student loans, taking health-care away from people who need it for survival, giving tax-breaks to the ultra-rich 0.1% and making US pay our hard-earned money to people who are already filthy-rich, the list is endless.
Trump's disastrous energy policy is to further subsidize the rich Oil companies, artificially propping up the fossil coal industry, and promoting offshore oil drilling. In spite of this, it is inevitable that the clean renewable solar and wind energy industries will replace the fossil fuel companies in time; but now it may not be soon enough to avert the worst effects of global warming's melt-down of our planet. We must try to fix Trump's mess, for our very survival. In fixing it, we will thrive.
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