"I just wish there were more Midwesterners," says Senator Tammy Duckworth

Joe Biden

Politico Headline: "Biden gets boost as 2020 field shrinks."

CNN Headline: "Trump must be dancing for joy at Sherrod Brown news."

Sherrod Brown, with his "Dignity of Work" message, decided not to run.  

Democrats have two messages. One group of candidates are talking about fairer, more generous benefits. The other group is leading with a message of fairer rewards for work. The second group has the better message.

Sherrod Brown and Jeff Merkley both decided not to run for president this week. Merkley shares with Sherrod Brown a rewards-for-work message that sounds very good in the ears of a lot of Americans. Workers deserve respect and a bigger share of the economic pie, they say. The message affirms Democratic empathy with blue collar people. People without a college degree. Mill towns, not college towns. 

Brown has a higher national profile than Merkley, and he is from Ohio, not Oregon. Ohio has a reputation as industrial, rustbelt, swing state, and Brown has Midwestern credibility. Oregon has a reputation as liberal-environmental-coastal. People around the country don't think "rugged logger" when they think Oregon. Now they think "eco-friendly hikers in Nikes." There is nothing wrong with Oregon's image, but it doesn't win back Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. 

When Sherrod Brown and Jeff Merkley dropped out it cleared political room for Joe Biden. Empathy with blue collar workers is a strong Democratic message. It unifies voters because it embraces a work ethic that crosses party lines. 

Sherrod Brown

Newt Gingrich had a brand for Barrack Obama: "the Food Stamp President." Gingrich associated Obama with failure, and a safety net with idleness and shame, with lazy people gaming the system. It is a powerful theme and it worked for Republicans.

There is a message there. 

Americans generally value the work ethic, not an idle rich leisure class ethic. And in a multi-ethnic country like this, there are lots of opportunity to project bad values and behaviors onto other races and ethnicities. Trump weaponized that resentment. Mexicans and Muslims are here to terrorize us, steal from us, and sponge off us, Trump says.

A free-stuff benefits message is a dangerous one for Democrats. The current Democratic Party message and the debate among the now-remainging candidates, is centered on benefits as a way to address the mal-distribution of incomes in modern capitalism. Medicare for All. Free public college. Guaranteed jobs. Guaranteed incomes.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's moved the targets further when her draft Green New Deal statement advocated incomes for people unable to work or "unwilling to work."

Republicans jumped on this. 

It is the ideal target for stimulating resentments. It triggers angry fears that other people are slackers, and Democrats enable them. Many blue collar jobs are tedious and laborious. Workers aren't working out of self actualization fulfillment. They are doing hard work to make money.

Talk of benefits can backfire. Unearned benefits are an implied insult to hard working people, especially in laborious jobs. It turns them into suckers. 

Joe Biden remains as the spokesman for the blue collar hard work message. He is an imperfect messenger. He is old and politically shopworn. Things that were liberal 50 years ago sound dated when videotape is re-played today.. He has baggage, with ties to Wall Street that muddle a populist message. 

A progressive candidate does not need to be from the Midwest. What is essential is that the candidate be aware of the hazards of a benefit-oriented message.  Americans have accepted social welfare programs when presented as an earned benefit. Social Security and Medicare are earned benefits. The GI Bill was an earned benefit. 

That means people--rich and poor--need to work for what they get. Democrats may nominate Biden unless one of the remaining Democrats need to pick up the Sherrod Brown-Jeff Merkley message.