Oregon Secretary of State Vacancy

Voter Packing, in North Carolina

Whom should Kate Brown appoint?

Watch the jostling. The posturing. The hypocrisy.

What to do: Appoint someone who will run in 2020? Or someone who will not run.

The person elected the Oregon Secretary of State in 2020 matters a great deal. The office plays a key role in re-districting decisions. There are 60 House seats, 30 Senate seats, and a new congressional district to create. Oregon will almost certainly go from five Congressional Districts to six.

We are in an era of very aggressive gerrymandering, done by both parties, but done shamelessly by Republicans after the 2010 wave elections that gave the GOP control of many state houses. In the past it was considered unseemly to admit that districts were drawn with partisan advantage intent, and gerrymandering politicians kept a straight face and said it was all fair and non-partisan and for the public good. But that has changed. Now politicians brag about partisan gerrymandering, as proof that they exercised power for the team.

That is the current era in Oregon. A Republican Secretary of State who sounded high minded and non-partisan could be accused within the GOP of wimping out and failing to exercise the prerogatives of office. 

"Bi-partisan" is an insult.

Packing and cracking.  Carefully and cynically done, a Secretary of State can arrange districts so that concentrations of ones opponents are placed into as few as possible districts--"packing"--so that they win with 75% majorities, thus "wasting" votes there, and leaving the remaining districts with reliable majority districts of 56-44 for your side.

Alternatively, one can divide an opponent 's stronghold with pie-shaped districts--"cracking"--and then combining those fractional areas with majorities of ones favored voters. Carefully done, one can assure those opposition voters--perhaps concentrated in the city of Portland-- are divided into two or three districts where they would remain a minority to be outvoted.

Stepping Stone. The Secretary of State office in Oregon is a good stepping stone to higher office because the officeholder has visibility and status but the job is generally uncontroversial, especially in the period just prior of re-districting, i.e. right now. The incumbent could pick and choose a couple of issues to grandstand with, but without the accountability demanded of the Governor. Alternatively, he or she could use the audit authority to point to some "should-haves" in hindsight. Bottom line, the office is well suited for someone to position oneself as a competent, popular watchdog, available either for re-election or elevation to the Governorship or the US Senate.

An incumbent Secretary of State has an edge. Everyone realizes this.

Packing, in Texas

Kate Brown said she will appoint someone who will not run for re-election. She gives a high minded reason for the decision. She herself, when she became governor by appointment that created a vacancy in the Secretary of State office, appointed a caretaker who would not run for election, Jeanne Atkins.

This created an open seat for the 2016 election, one which was won by Republican Dennis Richardson. She "played fair" and left the position open to  a free for all. It is widely understood to have been a mistake.

Oregon is a purple state, not a blue one. 

Meanwhile, Republicans now are insisting that she appoint a politically strong Republican, one chosen by the GOP, someone who most certainly will run for re-election. 

Former State Senator Alan DeBoer of southern Oregon has an opinion on this. He told me that the staff within the Secretary of State office would not do their jobs adequately if they were led by a lame duck caretaker. The staff would want to see the potential for multi-year continuity in order to do their jobs with the vigor required of the office.

Plus, he noted, the person elected in 2020 would lead the re-districting effort, and a Republican vetted  by Party leaders would be best positioned to win election and then defend Republican interest. DeBoer appears to understand what is at stake.

Cue the hypocrisy and high dungeon. Julie Parrish, a former Republican House member from West Linn, said, "Anything less than allowing [GOP] party leader to select the nominating pool would violate the spirit of the law, ignoring the standard process we routinely use for replacing lawmakers. Political favoritism has no role in replacing Secretary Richardson."

In fact, political favoritism and advantage is what this is all about. 

Would Alan DeBoer himself accept appointment to the office? I presume he is at a point in life where he would like to contribute to the state's decision-making, but perhaps doesn't imagine for himself a future decade of political ambition that puts him in the turmoil of Salem. Maybe he would be a suitable short term appointment by Brown. Experienced. Credible. Republican. And willing to serve, then go back to retirement.

I asked him directly.  Do you want the appointment, so you can serve for 22 months?  

He didn't answer, other than to insist along with Julie Parish that the appointment needed to be given to a strong contender for the 2020 election. He said that was the position of the GOP, one he backed, to demand the Governor appoint a person with re-election ambition.

It would be politically crazy for Kate Brown to do that.

Late addition by Alan Deboer, printed verbatim:

From DeBoer's Facebook Page

       "I would like to clarify what I said: Governor Brown should appoint the best person she can find for the job period. Law requires a Republican, the great employees of the department should have a boss that hasn’t declared they won’t run. I have found a “lame duck” will not be able to manage properly. 

     The citizens of Oregon deserve the best person for the job both for the citizens and the staff. Interim directors are not effective, we need to get away from partisan politics and do what is right. Redistricting is not the main part of the job and has been a sham in the past, the job entails much more than that. I will not answer if I would take the job as I want someone that will run in two years and will look for that best candidate for all of Oregon."