Wednesday, November 21, 2018

In praise of long campaigns

Author. Celebrity.

Americans want to see celebrities. Fame is power.


Long campaigns give people who aren't famous a chance to get traction and become famous.

Tom Hanks, movie star and short story author, drew a capacity crowd at the Portland Book Fair last week.

His book has been out since October of 2017. It ranks about 54,000th in sales. Getting in to see him was tied to buying the book. His event sold out early. He isn't running for president but he was hoping to be taken seriously as an author. And he is famous. He is Tom Hanks!

He drew a big crowd. 

There is a lesson here. It is obvious but needs to be noticed. Celebrity matters.

The very first event Donald Trump held in New Hampshire was in September 2015. He had  begun communicating details in his campaign message after the world watched him come down the escalator and announce that Mexican immigrants were mostly criminals, drug dealers and rapists. Three thousand people entered a hot gymnasium in Rochester, New Hampshire to see him. 

He came to New Hampshire a famous man, and how he handled a question about Muslims that evening made him more famous. He went low. He didn't correct a question that came with the premise that Obama was a Muslim. The media talked about it for weeks, but they missed the big story, which was that the audience was OK with what Trump did. Call Obama a Muslim? No problem.

Meanwhile, Trump got more famous. Celebrity begat celebrity.

Tom Steyer is doing what people do to run for president. He had established a national brand by spending $40 million dollars on ads calling for Trump's impeachment, plus another $15 million in ads relating to the mid-terms. Viewers can look into his blue eyes and think they are taking the measure of him, the soft spoken ultra-sincere man saying that Donald Trump had offended American values. People who watch any cable news know his face and voice and manner. Earnest. Not overtly a self-promoter. He presents as a billionaire do-gooder. Maybe that is what America wants.

Now he is onto the next step, expanding his message to a bigger analysis of what is wrong with America: "A hostile takeover of our democracy by large corporations and their enablers in politics has eroded that promise, and we must act to reclaim that power and put it back in the hands of the American people."

Steyer sounds like Bernie, but without Bernie's history. He is California rather than Brooklyn. Clean cut rather than ragged. Soft spoken rather than angry. Like Bernie, he says corporations have screwed the little guy. Like Bernie, he doesn't want corporate money in politics. He is famous enough to be an alternative. He will draw a crowd. He has been on TV.

Getting noticed
Senators and Members of Congress have a platform to gain fame. They hold office and are therefore are legitimate news maker. Sherrod Brown is the subject of the current buzz. People are saying he can communicate blue collar credibility and Upper Midwest appeal. He isn't handsome, but he is scrappy. He is being re-positioned right now by the punditry, from Senate nobody to maybe the guy!

Now maybe he will draw a crowd.

Democrats have figured out the policy sweet spot: universal health care, tax the rich, condemn racism but don't accuse Trump supporters of being deplorable--except ones that really blow it, like Hyde-Smith in Mississippi. Support women and reproductive rights. Say we need comprehensive immigration reform.

It is possible that policy nuance will differentiate the candidates within the Democratic scrum but I think it unlikely. It will be personality driven. Biography driven. Who will Democrats trust and like? 

At this moment Bernie, Warren, and O'Rourke can draw a crowd and raise money from the internet. They have a big installed base of supporters. 

The other way is to have money. "I'm too rich to need to be beholden to the swamp" is an idea that is generally acceptable to Democrats. That may work for Steyer, Delaney, and Bloomberg.  Currently there are some 2,200 billionaires in America.

There is one other path to celebrity:  Sweat equity. Showing up in Iowa and New Hampshire in living rooms and meeting halls and having people decide they like you and your message.

1 comment:

Rick Millward said...

Kind of sideways here...A Democratic/Progressive messenger should acknowledge that before and since 9/11 the U.S. has been seen increasingly as a imperial power in the world, which has resulted in a defensiveness that at it's worst is exhibited by a pugnacious Trump and his cult.

The American lifestyle, it's consumerism, and other aspects are both attractive and threatening to developing countries, and by allowing a Trump/GOP worldview to become dominant this fear is also spreading to other first world nations. Like any quasi colonial power the U.S. has had to walk a narrow path between the benign and exploitive. Most would agree that currently it is far off that path.