Election lesson number one.

Golden won.

Turnout matters. 

Jeff Golden's area of strength turned out to vote. Jessica Gomez's not so much. 

Jeff Golden handily beat Jessica Gomez for the closely watched State Senate seat. This blog took close note of their messages, their fundraising, how each of them were change agents in their respective political parties. I looked at how they spent money. I analyzed their TV ads and mailers. Lots of money got spent on behalf of each of them and I looked at their donors implications of those associations.

Maybe none of that mattered.  

House District 5 and 6 make up Senate District 3

What mattered is who turned out. Note that each House District has about the same population. Two House Districts make up a Senate District. House District 5 is the Ashland-Talent-Jacksonville area, and it is solidly Democratic. House District 6 is essentially the City of Medford, and it is slightly Republican. The election results confirm this. Democrat Pam Marsh won handily in District 5, with 24,000 votes, winning 2 to 1 over her opponent. Republican Kim Wallan won 54-46 in Medford, the narrow victory that the District's partisan lean would suggest.

But notice: There were a total of 35,600 total votes cast for both Democratic and Republican candidates in the race for House District 5. In House District 6, the Medford District, there were only 26,600 total votes cast. The Democratic House district had 9,000 more total voters in the Representative races. The two Districts are supposedly the same size, but on election day one was 38% bigger in voter turnout.

That had huge consequence. 

Mailers into Medford: counterproductive

Golden won with 35,000 votes, to 28,500 for Gomez--a 6,500 margin. The people in Golden's area of strength turned out to vote, for someone, and presumably Golden more often than not.  Had Gomez gotten the 54% of the votes received by Wallan in District 6--the presumed GOP edge--but with the turnout numbers of District 5, then that alone would have added some 4,800 votes to her total. Had District 5 only cast votes in numbers that District 6 did, then Golden would have about 5,400 votes fewer votes from that part of the district.

Gomez would have won handily. 

Something motivated voters in one area of the Senate District, but not the other. Possibly Trump motivated Democrats generally, or it was the ballot measures, or the congressional race, or Golden's reputation. Or maybe it was superior execution of volunteer recruitment that stimulated turnout for all the Democratic candidates. Perhaps Cathy Shaw's team did a better job of targeting and motivating likely Democrats. 

Maybe Jamie McLeod-Skinner lost her election, but helped Golden win a Democratic supermajority in the state Senate. Or Golden's own volunteers helped McLeod-Skinner draw near even with Walden in Jackson County.

Something was going on, but the net result was that way more voters turned out in Democratic areas , who then presumably voted as they would be expected to vote, for the Democrat.  

The take-away: Campaign activity to motivate your own supporters is essential, but campaign activity in ones opponent's strong areas may be worse than worthless, if they motivated people in that area to turn out. Golden was helped by the lower turnout in Medford compared to Ashland-Talent.

More later: Watch this space for blog posts on this election:  

1. Star power. Texas' Beto has it. Georgia's Stacey Abrams has it. Florida's Andrew Gillum has it. They surprised, but the also lost.

2. Voters pay attention. Ankerberg lost. Poythress and Dickson both both got more votes. Poythress won.

3. Re-positioning for 2020. Who was helped. (Spoiler: Trump for one.)

4. Winning the bar poll doesn't get you elected judge.

5. Walden's future: From Congressional Chairman to lobbyist. Congress: Been there, done that. Who is his Republican heir?

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