Change minds, or boost turnout.
It is hard to change minds.
The 2nd District votes for Republicans. Nearly all the state representatives and state senators from the District are Republican. The area is rural mountain west, and that is the big swath of bright Republican red America on maps. It is red for a reason. Acceptable Democratic policies on federal issues tend toward an urban sensibility on guns, resource use, diversity.
The 2nd District votes for Republicans. Nearly all the state representatives and state senators from the District are Republican. The area is rural mountain west, and that is the big swath of bright Republican red America on maps. It is red for a reason. Acceptable Democratic policies on federal issues tend toward an urban sensibility on guns, resource use, diversity.
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| Click for McLeod-Skinner video. |
Jamie McLeod-Skinner makes her case against Greg Walden and for herself in a video.
It starts with the idea that Greg Walden isn't the same old Greg. The big message re-brands Walden from "good guy" to "cruel guy" and do so by citing health care as his biggest vulnerability. He voted to take it away. Then it presents Jamie McLeod-Skinner as an inspiring alternative to the now-flawed incumbent.
One Oregon Democrat suggested to me that she could toughen her campaign message by using a testimonial of someone whose life was saved because of ObamaCare access, or perhaps the parent of that person. The message would be that Walden voted 62 times to abolish the law that saved the person's life. Personalize and humanize the harm caused by Walden's votes. Show indignation. Show Walden's inhumanity.
An Oregon political consultant wrote me saying that changing minds on Walden required showing Walden's motives to be selfish political ambition. That argument would make sense of the facts regarding his committee power, fundraising, and his votes to reduce health care access. Her message might be that he wanted to climb within the ranks of Republican leadership, raising millions of dollars from large corporations and lobbyists as head of the RNCC to earn the right to Chair a major committee. He got what he wanted. But this means now he is indebted to those special interests, and he needs to put the political desires of his whole GOP caucus ahead of his District. He sold out his District on health care access, and sold out the country by voting to increase the deficit with a tax bill that gives 80% of the benefit to the very richest people and corporations. All because of Walden's selfish ambition.
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| Believing is seeing. |
It makes intuitive sense for a Democratic candidate to start with criticism of Walden.
It may not work. Worse, it may backfire.
Walden is already well known, and humans have "confirmation bias." The premise underlying the "change minds" approach is that people are open to hearing and integrating information that he openly lied to us on what he would do on healthcare.
Probably not.
People do not perceive information that confronts their existing opinions as "new, useful information." They perceive it as a personal attack. Hearing their Republican congressman criticized, they defend and protect their original understanding. They ignore, discount, or mentally refute evidence that doesn't fit.
[Note. Do a moment's introspection. If you disagree with this argument, and if so, aren't you yourself mentally refuting, thinking of counter-examples, and generally resisting even as you read it?]
Walden makes changing minds harder since he doesn't "sound mean." Sean Hannity sounds mean. Ted Cruz sounds mean. Walden sounds empathetic, so it is hard to accept the evidence that his actions were cruel.
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| Click: Vox |
It may be easier for a voter who had supported Walden simply to disbelieve that Walden actually opposed the ACA than it would be to admit he did. And it might be easier to think that the tax bill cannot possibly be as bad as the experts say, so it can be dismissed as fake news.
McLeod-Skinner has a path to victory, but the primary route is not through changing the minds of Republicans. The "change minds" approach may work for a small group of truly non-affiliated voters, but it will come with the backlash effect of motivating and hardening the support of Walden supporters.
The path to victory will come from the boost turnout approach. It involves energizing Democrats and Non-Affiliated voters. It means changing the electorate, not changing minds.
I will look closely at that in future posts.
3 comments:
We are fortunate that this district is relatively prosperous.
In 2008, with the country reacting to the recession by voting in Obama, most of ORD2 went Republican, and by a healthy margin. I would guess part of the reason was that the economy wasn't hurting them directly, or if it was other issues were more important. This could be your thesis, denial, but also could be something I've observed which is that people's attitudes only are modified by direct experience. usually painful.
An example of this is that it's clear that Trump cultists choose not accept the truth of his career, even as the more distasteful facts are revealed, preferring the public relations image of the "successful tycoon", a convenient myth perpetuated in our culture.
As a volunteer canvasser for Jamie McLeod-Skinner, I've had the opportunity to talk to many nonaffiliated voters particularly in working class neighborhoods. Most of these folks don't vote regularly. They're busy working two jobs and taking care of their young children or grand children. Most don't know who Greg Walden or Jamie McLeod-Skinner is. Some don't realize they were registered to vote when they got their Oregon driver's license. Often, I'm the first person who's ever asked them to vote and participate. There are even some Democrats who don't vote regularly. Since our local media has not covered much about the upcoming elections, a lot of the electorate is tuned out and uninformed. If you are concerned about the state of our county, state and country, please consider volunteering to canvass for a local campaign. It's easier than you think and most people who answer their door are polite and appreciative when they figure out you aren't selling anything or asking for money.
The path as I see it...
Turn out the vote in Southern and Central Oregon, and work hard the I-84 corridor. The more "urban" areas where JMS can compete.
East of Prineville and south of Baker City...there's not so many votes potentially EXCEPT for the Treasure Valley, and work the immigration issue hard.
Just as a note, on my recent drive from John Day to Paisley, I passed 3 "Stand with Greg" billboards. Who is he running against again?
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