Coarse Correction

Trump reversed himself on the Scaramucci style, from loving it to condemning it.   It was too much.

The important thing may not be the "Scaramucci Week."  It may be that Trump ended it.

Donald Trump has a Board of Directors in fact and practice, if not in the Constitution.  That Board consists of the senior and visible members of the Republican Party.  If they act with clarity and unity they could, by announcing that the broad leadership of the party would support replacing Trump, cause Trump to resign or face impeachment.

Gone.  Too much.

Mike Pence is their ace in the hole.  

So far that Board has quibbled and complained on the edges, but they are letting Trump be Trump.  As Eric Trump said yesterday, "My father has the voice of the American people.  The American people love him."

He is right, so far.   But problems are emerging within that Board of Directors and Trump appears to have noticed he needed a big, dramatic change.  Kelly in/Scarmucci out provided it.

The drama of the past week was causing upset inside the GOP and within that Senatorial Board of Directors:

   

***the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare

  

 ***news that President Trump dictated Donald Junior's misleading explanation of the meeting with the Russians

   

***Reince Priebus and Sean Spicer abruptly leaving the Administration

***The Trump boy scout speech

***Commander in Chief Trump making military policy by tweet

   

***Scaramucci coming aboard, Scaramucci's bluster, the on the record content and vivid vulgarity

   

***Scaramucci's departure after ten days

   

There was a lot of drama and apparent disfunction.  It bled onto the reputation of that Board of Directors.   

   

***Trump was criticizing one of their own, longtime Republican Senator Jeff Sessions, a loyal, conservative who gave up a safe senate seat to join the administration as Attorney General, a shocking lack of loyalty to a faithful GOP leader. 

   

***Trump was overtly maneuvering to fire Sessions so a new AG could fire James Mueller and shut down an investigation into Russian involvement in the Trump campaign.  There was speculation he would do it during a recess so the new AG could take office without senate confirmaiton.  This would put the GOP  senate majority in a hot seat.  Do they succumb to having their power snubbed or do they push back against a president of their own party?  If they go along they are publicly acknowledging they are cooperating with the president to shut down an investigation, but if they don't they are publicly acknowledging they don't trust a president of their own party.

Headline and story in Alaska's largest newspaper

   

***They failed to repeal and replace Obamacare, confirming the story of disfunction.

   

***Trump criticized the senators for that failure, casting blame on them.

   

***Trump threatened them.  He promised to raise money for primary opponents of senators who didn't knuckle under and he threatened publicly to punish a state (Alaska) for the votes of Senator Murkowski.  Trump's messenger, Interior Secretary Zinke denies it was a threat.  Alaska's two senators considered it one.  The important thing is that senators got the message and Alaska news media got the message.  It was extortion.

If a significant body of GOP leaders said Trump no longer had their confidence then a constitutional crisis could take place.  Mike Pence is a safe substitute.  There are rumblings in the Board of Directors of Republican leaders.  Lindsey Graham and John McCain are warning him not to fire Mueller.  Other senators, with less reputation for independence, are saying similar things: Grassley, Sasse, Hatch.  The key people to watch are not Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, men with ambition.  McCain and Graham don't count either, since they are thought to be mavericks.  It is when the rank and file senators feel that can--or must--speak up that a president's position becomes fragile.   We are seeing indications.

Bob Corker goes public

Jeff Flake, a Republican senator from Arizona, has just written a book blasting Trump, saying he is a disaster for the GOP and America.  He is on TV, promoting his book.  But so far the story is not one of senatorial pushback but rather the fact that senators complain but still support a presidential agenda they publicly oppose.  The "skinny bill" replacement of Obamacare was unpopular with the public and the senators but 49 of them voted for it anyway, including Jeff Flake.

Trump is safe for now.  His base is with him.   But the "Scaramucci week" was too much.

The base is not a majority of the population but it is a majority of the Republican electorate.  Trump has inoculated much of his base from news from news that would cast doubt on him.  He speaks directly to his base via Fox News, talk radio, and twitter but there are growing cracks in the Trump media fortress.  Scaramucci's comments were vulgar and rough.  The A Trump spokesperson can call Obama a Muslim, a socialist, and a Kenyan, but cannot say Bannon is busy sucking his own cock.  Talk Radio and Fox News hosts criticized it.  It fed the story of disfunction at the Trump White House.  It lent credibility and evidence to the rumbling by the Board of Directors.  Scaramucci was indefensible in the heartland.

Too far, too much.

Trump immediately responded.  

Democrats who are exhilarated thinking this was a terrible week for Trump are looking at the wrong thing.  The right thing to notice likely is that Scaramucci is gone.

  We may look back and see this is yet another iteration of Trump's rapport with his base, recognizing that Scaramucci went too far and the Scaramucci vulgarity story needed to be replaced by the "clean house blank slate Marine general in charge" story.   That is a story Fox News is comfortable relating, the base is comfortable hearing, and the Senatorial Board of Directors is happy to go onto TV right now, as I write, to be echoing with satisfaction.

This could be a winner for Trump.  It depends on Trump and what he does next..