Friday, December 23, 2016

Trump on Terror Attacks: Heads I win, Tails I win

Obama is criticized when there is a terror attack in the US.  


But Donald Trump will be proven right  both when there is an attack and when there is no attack.   Trump took the lead in telling us the world is dangerous.


Trump is winning the message war.

Forgetting 9-11   Watch:  Click Here
Democrats described the terror attacks of 9-11 as a failure of our national security system, but not a personal failure of President George Bush.  John Kerry, in the 2004 campaign, did not make an issue of the systematic errors of the Administration nor of George Bush personally.   

Republicans have handled messaging on Obama much more adeptly.  They blame Obama when bad things happen at Fort Hood, at the Boston Marathon, at Orlando, at San Bernardino.   The perception in the public mind is that George Bush's presidency was terror free (discounting the 3,000 who died on 9-11, because that was blamed on outsiders, not Bush) but that Obama has had multiple terror incidents, to his discredit.

The notion is so widespread and integrated into the mindset that Rudy Giuliani could speak extemporaneously at a Trump rally in August and assert firmly that there were no terrorist attacks on America until Obama came to office.    Giuliani, Mayor of NY during the 9-11 attacks, somehow dismissed  a huge terror attack while blaming Obama for smaller ones in comparison shows just how profound is the notion that terror attacks are the responsibility of Democrats and take place only under their watch.   

It was cynical behavior but superb message control on the part of Republicans and negligence and malpractice on the part of Democrats.


Senator John McCain openly calls terror attacks as the personal failure of Obama who is "directly responsible"  After some criticism he revises his statement to say that Obama is certainly at fault, but only indirectly and generally responsible.



This takes place in a Fox media environment that amplifies this notion.  Terror attacks are the fault of Obama.   Obama did not do a good job of parrying or objecting to that notion.  His calm deliberate manner and comments tamp down fear and foolish responses--arguably sensible and responsible behavior of ra president-- but it contrasts poorly against Trump who expresses anger and outrage and blame.

In this environment Donald Trump inoculated himself against the same attacks.  He did it in part by doing something that drew sharp criticism.

Trump understands that some criticism is good, very good for you.


Criticism for this helped him.

By getting criticized Trump received the attention he wanted and the positioning he wanted.   The criticism secured his political position because it was asserted not just by Trump himself but also by his media and Democratic detractors:  Trump said:  "I told you so!




Trump has won the message war.   With help from his critics Trump is understood to be the leader who takes credit for being right when some incident happens.  Yes, Trump's detractors think he is a grandiose show off but he is understood to be gloating because he is right.  This helps Trump.

Of course, when there is no news of a terror attack somewhere he is the beneficiary by default, able to assert that his actions kept us safe.  
  

Democrats are going to have a hard time blaming Trump for breaches--even serious errors--in our homeland security systems if and when new incidents happen.   Trump has been openly critical of the CIA and FBI, so if something happens he will blame them, not him.   Trump will not be asking for resolve and a calm sense of purpose the next time an incident happens.   He will be saying that the blame is on the terrorists or the CIA, not him, and that he knew it all along.

At some point Trump will need to "own" the problems that happen under his watch, but Trump will likely remain first off the blocks every time an incident happens.  He will say it is an outrage and that once again he is proven right.

There is, however, hope for the Democrats.  Trump skips and skimps on his Intelligence briefings.  When something bad happens would might Trump had done if he had been getting briefings?






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