Democratic Resistance

Trump has dominated the media and has been selling his message.  But Democrats are pushing back.  

A report on conversations with two Democratic US Senators.

Senators Merkley and Wyden.  And me, the short one.

One campaigns with promises but one governs with the consent of the governed.  The American system was set up for checks, balances, and gridlock.

I had time to visit yesterday with 2 of the 48 people best positioned to slow and stop Donald Trump, Democratic US Senators.  Reminder:  this is pretty easy in Oregon, a small blue state, made easier because my home town is headquarters for four network TV stations that give local news to a media market of some 500,000 suburban and rural voters.  Officeholders like to come here.  It is made easier yet because I donate money to their campaigns, but they would greet me warmly and talk with me even if I didn't give to their campaigns.  But I do donate because I like them and don't want anything from them but good government.

Each of them said similar things independently, so I will condense them:

An infrastructure bill could probably pass but there is a funding problem.   If paid for by borrowing the Republican fiscal hawks won’t like it.  The current thinking is that Trump wants to pay for much of it with private capital.  Investors will build the projects to be repaid for by tolls.  This will be a deal-killer for Oregonians and it is the most expensive way possible to pay for it.   Instead of borrowing to build things at some 2 or 3% interest they will be paid for by investors looking for internal rates of return of 8-15%.   Conclusion:  don’t expect Democrats to sign onto this.

Obamacare will be destroyed on day one, but Republicans will attempt to avoid the “Pottery Barn problem” (if you break it, you own it) by delaying its implementation until after the 2018 elections.  Republican hope is that the real pain will be disguised or delayed, but it is a false hope, each said.  The moment the funding mechanisms for subsidies for young participants end (through a 50-vote majority in Reconciliation on day one) Obamacare will start unraveling because it needs the financial incentives for younger people for the insurance pools to work. The result will be skyrocketing costs and insurers leaving the marketplace.  It will become a very public mess long before the mid-terms.   Both senators assured me they understand the Democratic rules of during Republican governance.  If Republicans make a mess Republicans are blamed for the mess.  They broke it.

Less improbable than Trump

Leadership.  Both Senators said I need not worry about whether new leadership will emerge.  Ambition has not disappeared.   One senator predicted three leaders will emerge:  1. Elizabeth Warren, who will step into the role as national leader and presidential candidate.  2. Some younger version of Bernie Sanders (but not Bernie himself)  who will voice essentially the Sanders message and will present him or her self as Sanders’ successor.  3. Someone new and currently not imagined, someone with a charismatic personality and liberal politics and coming (as I have suggested here with my idea of someone from news, entertainment, or sports) from some place likely outside public office but who has a story of inspiring others and voicing a message.  We may already know that person, but not yet as a presidential candidate.   

Merkley said one name to watch is US Rep. Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts (Brookline, Newton) and a graduate of Stanford then Harvard Law.  He is handsome, articulate, and voices working class liberal populism and he impressed Merkley very favorably. 

Joe Kennedy III

Resistance, not acquiescence.  Both senators voiced that they understood that Trump was an opponent and not the leader of an agenda they support.  They seem to perceive themselves part of an intransigent and skeptical opposition, voicing the mandate of the popular vote: don’t destroy America.

Each Senator voiced dismay over Hillary’s campaign.  Wyden cited the close ties to Wall Street and her inability to voice an inspiring message of  positive change and what a HRC presidency would mean.  Merkley said he met with her personally to urge she find one or two specific changes in the TPP to protest so that her supposed opposition to TPP would appear principled and credible.  He said she was hobbled by Obama’s people who said if she spoke clearly against any portion of the TPP they could not campaign for her, with the result that her opposition sounded vague and cynically dishonest, which just confirmed voter suspicions of her.

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Wait!  There is even more.   Thad Guyer, an attorney representing whistleblowers, and I discuss the transition.   Sit back and hear us talk about the optics of the transition and how Trump is handling the media.   Peter says he is "winning" the little battles where the media objects to his conflicts of interests and the numbers of the Carrier jobs saved.  Guyer reviews the new personnel in detail.

Click Here for the New Podcast