The Reagan Era is Over. Trump redefines the role of Government. He is saying things people want to hear, that we will win, win win. That is the problem.
Trump is popular now. A Bloomberg poll says 55% of people are optimistic about a Trump presidency.
I am watching a live broadcast of Donald Trump doing what he loves to do and he does very well. He is speaking in North Carolina at a "thank you" rally, using a teleprompter but sounding very extemporaneous and genuine. The crowd loves him. He loves the crowd.
He is saying things that will be popular. He is a nationalist, not a globalist.
He is saying things that will be popular. He is a nationalist, not a globalist.
Flag: In favor. He praised the flag and the American soldiers who fought to defend it. He said that people who insult the flag are wrong and that we should "do something." He didn't say what. The crowd cheered.
Foreign wars: against. This is a major policy statement, clarifying statements he has said in the campaign. Trump is pulling back from neoconservative policies of engagement and nation building and spreading the supposed benefit of democracy around the world. A Republican can make this policy change more easily than a Democrat. (Indeed, George McGovern said this very thing when he won the Democratic nomination and then lost every state but Massachusetts in 1972. I liked the sound of it then, and still do.) Trump said the American military is being depleted by fighting unnecessary, unwise wars in places we don't need to be. "We will stop trying to topple foreign regimes we don't know anything about. It will be America First. This destructive cycle of intervention and chaos must end. We have spent six trillion dollars in the Middle East but we have potholes at home."
Precious Environment: for. This is a change in tone. Nothing about abolishing the EPA. Instead he praised America's precious places and he cited Teddy Roosevelt, the vigorous can-do president who took on the business community.
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| Trump in North Carolina |
Great Health Care at an affordable price: for. Trump assured the North Carolina audience that he would promptly end the unsettling effect of Obamacare but replace it with something great, something really great.
Inclusion: for. Trump reached out to blacks and Hispanics. He said he supported immigration--legal immigration--lots of it. He did not cite Hispanic crime or Black Lives Matter or racialize his talking points.
Trump is the symbol of strong, activist government working on behalf of all the people in the American big tent. Trump asserts the legitimacy of strong government when it is on behalf of the people inside, while firmly asserting He is re-affirming American borders, who is in and who is out. It is more inclusive than the tone of the campaign, including all people and all races of people inside. It is America first, defining foreign countries out, allies who aren't paying their way out, illegal immigrants out, criminals out, foreign workers out.
Trump is Mr. America now, strong and full of promises. "We are going to win, win, win until you are tired of winning." The vulnerability of the strong father figure is when people learn he has betrayed them, that Santa Claus is really just mom and dad, that he cannot do magic.
If governing in the real world were easy, all the problems would have been solved already. Trump is over-promising. He is not promising toil and tears. He is promising victory. He could deliver on toil and tears, but not easy victories.
One politically conservative man in his late 80s, a retired mill owner, Robert Casebier, commented to me: "Trump looks ok to me. However Trump reminds me of a guy who has promised this gal he is going to give her the moon if she marries him. We are at the phase now where she has accepted and they are both thrilled to death. He now says, he will make a job for all her aunts and uncles which makes her even more confident with the decision she has made . Now on the other side of the coin, he has had three marriages, two thirds fell apart and he was real sure of them. How many of these promises can he keep? I think the road ahead is tougher than he or anyone else can imagine."
I consider this an astute early warning from the Trump base. They don't love and trust him, but they liked the potential for change he represented. He is on probation.
I predict a very fruitful 100 days of Trump. Democrats will like the infrastructure spending and Republicans will go along. The national security hawks of both parties who pushed American intervention into the Middle East have been discredited. Voters want America to back out and if Trump can manage it then this, too, will be popular.
But the great problems facing America will persist and America's inability to "win, win, win" will become Trump's failure.
"How many of these promises can he keep?" Soon enough--if the Democrats do their job as an opposition party--the story will be "broken promises." Trump has set a standard he cannot meet.
Trump is Mr. America now, strong and full of promises. "We are going to win, win, win until you are tired of winning." The vulnerability of the strong father figure is when people learn he has betrayed them, that Santa Claus is really just mom and dad, that he cannot do magic.
If governing in the real world were easy, all the problems would have been solved already. Trump is over-promising. He is not promising toil and tears. He is promising victory. He could deliver on toil and tears, but not easy victories.
One politically conservative man in his late 80s, a retired mill owner, Robert Casebier, commented to me: "Trump looks ok to me. However Trump reminds me of a guy who has promised this gal he is going to give her the moon if she marries him. We are at the phase now where she has accepted and they are both thrilled to death. He now says, he will make a job for all her aunts and uncles which makes her even more confident with the decision she has made . Now on the other side of the coin, he has had three marriages, two thirds fell apart and he was real sure of them. How many of these promises can he keep? I think the road ahead is tougher than he or anyone else can imagine."
I consider this an astute early warning from the Trump base. They don't love and trust him, but they liked the potential for change he represented. He is on probation.
I predict a very fruitful 100 days of Trump. Democrats will like the infrastructure spending and Republicans will go along. The national security hawks of both parties who pushed American intervention into the Middle East have been discredited. Voters want America to back out and if Trump can manage it then this, too, will be popular.
But the great problems facing America will persist and America's inability to "win, win, win" will become Trump's failure.
"How many of these promises can he keep?" Soon enough--if the Democrats do their job as an opposition party--the story will be "broken promises." Trump has set a standard he cannot meet.
2 comments:
"Foreign wars: against."
Spreading democracy and the Arab Spring were, in American foreign policy, the greatest and most dangerous lies ever told. The invasions that blew Middle East governance up and apart were calibrated by a relatively small cabal as I recall. It cannot be put back together. Can we actually get out?
Separately, I think Trump is popular now because that is how he is working the circus tent, and because people are hugely relieved to have the wretched and seemingly endless campaign over. They also want some kind(s) of change.
A report I heard yesterday on Warren Olney's To The Point said a recent poll indicated 30% of millennials don't care if they live in a democracy and are not convinced another form of governance wouldn't be tolerable or an improvement. (!)
I cannot take Trump's rhetoric at face value. Using a variation of "follow the money", don't listen to his rhetoric. Look at who is being nominated for positions within his government. What I see happening is the beginning of another George Bush presidency, with a powerful vice president pulling the levers of power. But far more malevolent. Trump will provide them bluster and cover, while they dismantle everything.
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