Is Trump Plausible as President? Apparently. He leads a populist revolt against the establishment, from the authoritarian right.
There are two contradictory news items today that reflect on Trump's legitimacy. The Washington Post has an extraordinary editorial, condemning Trump. And CNN publishes a poll saying Trump is now solidly in the lead.
It does not particularly hurt Trump that the media and policy elites of the country oppose Trump. Trump leads a revolt against that establishment. (Bernie Sanders led a revolt against the financial establishment--but not the media establishment--from the democratic left, but lost. The establishment won.) Hillary represents the establishment, which narrowly won in the Democratic party side.
It does not particularly hurt Trump that the media and policy elites of the country oppose Trump. Trump leads a revolt against that establishment. (Bernie Sanders led a revolt against the financial establishment--but not the media establishment--from the democratic left, but lost. The establishment won.) Hillary represents the establishment, which narrowly won in the Democratic party side.
So we can add another division to the election. Hillary vs. Trump: Same-old vs. new, anti-racist vs. racial resentment, and now establishment vs. populist authoritarian. People who read the NY Times and Washington Post like Hillary's side of this. They find Trump utterly implausible. The NY Times and Washington Post are archetypal establishment media.
Today, well in advance of the election, the Post published an editorial saying that Trump would be a disaster as president and be an affront to two centuries of constitutional government.
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| "Unfit for the presidency." |
"Uniquely unqualified."
"Campaign of snarl and sneer."
"Politics of denigration and division."
"Dangerous for the nation and the world."
The vast majority of voters do not get their political news from the NY Times and Washington Post. Trump has moved ahead in the polls. This matters, and it helps Trump going forward.
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| The people are speaking |
Trump has cited polls throughout his campaign, and there was a reason for it. Trump's justification for his campaign rested in part on the idea that he was representing "the people" rather than elite opinion. The post convention poll results go a long way toward validating Trump, and making him "presidential." He is validated not because he sounds like other candidates--sober, polished speeches, careful and calibrated talk--but validated because he has the support of the people. The new polls both reflect current opinion and shape future opinion. The Washington Post can condemn him but now Trump can claim to speak for the majority, not just of GOP voters but of the whole country.
The poll itself changes one of Trump's great impediments, that he is "un-presidential" and in some way essentially implausible as president. His speeches are a patchwork of short bursts and half-thoughts. Buttoned down Republicans like Mitt Romney and the Bush family refuse to endorse him.
But in a democracy the centerpiece of political legitimacy is the popular will. Even the Constitution gets its validity because of its support by "We the People." Trump is saying what a majority of people want to hear: change, racial resentment, undemocratic response to threats from inside and outside. Trump is made "presidential" not by the discipline and professionalism of a teleprompter speech but by something more powerful and fundamental: the apparent will of the people.
The Washington Post dislikes Trump. The people like Trump. Overall, this is a very good day for Trump.
The Washington Post dislikes Trump. The people like Trump. Overall, this is a very good day for Trump.
(I will note here once again that I am attempting to describe what I see happening. I am not a cheerleader for Trump.)
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I finally Met a Member of “We the People”
Today’s UpClose post peels back the media vs. Trump war to its core in observing: “But in a democracy the centerpiece of political legitimacy is the popular will. Even the Constitution gets its validity because of its support by ‘We the People’." On a sunny afternoon in Seattle yesterday, I finally met one of those people at a backyard picnic, an educated independent. He had previously said publicly only that he was leaning Trump but Bernie would be great too. But now that Bernie was out, he was irrevocably decided he’ll vote Trump. This is person the four of us love, and we did not attack him. We all respectfully asked him questions, and he agreed to answer them all honestly. Here is a paraphrased recap, most of which shocked us to varying degrees.
1. Why Trump? Answer: “Same reason as Bernie—Global trade and globalism are rotting the American economy from the inside. I want someone to stop it, and maybe even reverse it. Most of all, I want an outsider to try to knock down the established political order and political classes. That’s what Brexit was all about—finally doing what the majority wants rather than the globalism paid-off politicians want.”
2. Do you think Trump will build an effective wall, and Congress will fund it? Answer: “Absolutely Trump will try to get it built, the EU and Israel have already proven walls dramatically reduce the flows of illegals, and Israel has developed the anti-tunneling technology. Whether Congress gives him the money or not, I will be satisfied with a hard fight for the wall. America needs to have that fight.”
3. Would you support Trump deporting 10 million people, and can that be done? Answer: “I support our laws being enforced, if current law prescribes a million illegals be deported, I support a million deportations. If the law says 10 million, fine with me. If Obama could half-heartedly deport about 500,000 illegals a year, Trump would easily get that to a million in his first year, 2 million in second year, etc, so that it’s a total of 10 million in his first term. Change the immigration law if you don’t like it, but enforce the law until you do. Period.”
4. Do you agree with Trump that crime is out of control and he can stop it? Answer: “Of course crime is out of control and getting worse as police are undermined. Do what Bill Clinton did, put 100,000 new cops on the streets. (See, “I worked hard to put more than 100,000 police on the street and the crime rate went way down.” –Quote from former President Bill Clinton, Washington Post, Sept 16, 2014, https://goo.gl/YtsdjI).
5. Is Black Lives Matter (BLM) a terrorist group? Answer: “No, it is just another anti-law and order group using racial politics to mask the fact that blacks and Hispanics commit most of the crime. BLM is just like white supremacists-- blame someone else based on race.”
6. Do you support Trump’s ban on Muslim immigration? Answer: “Yes, Islam spawns terrorists worldwide, and the fewer Muslims we let in, the fewer terrorists we will have from the immigrants or their children.”
We were quiet and disquieted, but he relieved the tension: “I know you all disagree with me, but you asked, and I told. With Sanders out, that’s what I’m doing. Whose up for another Seattle microbrew?”
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