Why and How Trump wins this

This blog intends to be about observations, not predictions.  Why am I predicting a Trump victory in November?  Here is what I observe about the Hillary and Trump message.

Powerful ideas, appropriated by Trump

Hillary is a continuation, Trump is change.  Hillary has every good reason to want a continuation. In the past seven and a half years the American economy has pulled itself out of a deep recession, unemployment is down, gasoline prices are affordable, money from around the world is pouring into America making our dollar strong, stock markets are tripled, real estate prices are back up, and America is experiencing far less terror trouble than is Europe.  It doesn't help Hillary.  Revolts don't happen at the time of despair, they happen when things are getting better and people dare to hope for even-better.

Point for Trump, the change person.

Archie Bunker is alive and still votes

Hillary is anti-racist, Trump is okay-with-racist.    I believe the progressive left's analysis of America is correct and there is a large body of people with low-grade racism.   These voters know better than to say "nigger" in public and they agree that blacks and Hispanics should have the right to vote and they oppose overt segregation, separate water fountains, etc.  In short, they do not approve of 1950's overt southern segregation and they resent being accused of racism.  But still, they aren't actually fully comfortable with blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, especially when they retain foreign accents and elements of separate culture.  (Bill Cosby pre-revelations was OK: soft spoken doctor married to a lawyer, living in a big house, driving a Volvo.  But not so OK is a black person with attitude, or pressing one for English.)   Hillary's team identifies racism as a problem and white voters resent being identified as the problem.  They consider themselves the victim.  They are inclined to vote for the candidate who sympathizes with them rather than the one who blames and shames them. 

Point for Trump, the okay-with-racist.

Hillary wants steady progress on ending terror, Trump says he will stop it now. 

  

New York Post.   You don't read it, but millions do.

Hillary may well be expressing the best possible outcome in a complicated world but it is less appealing than Trump's confident promise that he will stop terrorism now.  How would he do it?  Trump says he gets things done, enough said.  Hillary talks about allies and process.  Trump says he gets results, under budget and before the deadline, and his daughter verifies it, enough said.   Journalism is no longer an effective arbiter or mediator or independent authority.  Trump's assertions may be impossible but who is to contradict him?  The lying media?  Some people believe him and some do not, but Trump promises results and Hillary promises struggle.

Point for Trump, the one who says he will end fear.

CNN shows empty podium marked Trump instead of Hillary speaking

Hillary is tiring and boring TV, Trump is interesting TV.    Eight years ago, in one of Obama's infrequent moments of gracelessness, he was asked in a debate with Hillary about her 'likability" factor.   "You're likable enough" he said.   It was a gaffe, defined as a politician accidentally telling the simple but un-sayable truth.   Hillary is likable enough, but not highly and empathetically engaging.  She comes across as an excellent professional colleague, but not a soul-mate confidante.   I have been in her close presence twice, in Oregon and New Hampshire, and she is better than "likable enough".  But on TV she does not come across as engaging.   Trump is more interesting.   Voters need to decide who they want to watch for 4 years: CSPAN or "The Apprentice".  Trump is better TV, so people watch Trump and he sets the agenda, so the election is about his issues and not hers.   He wants to talk about change and resentment over privilege and ending fear.   Hillary will want to talk about how crazy Trump is, but even this is a pyrrhic victory since, after all, she is talking about Trump, the interesting one.

Point for Trump, the guy we love/hate to watch because he is so interesting.

What is Trump's path to victory?

1.   Progressive peel-off.  Some Sanders-progressive never-Hillary people won't vote, which will peel off a few percent from the narrow Obama victory over Romney.   That, all by itself, may be enough, moving this from a 3 point victory to a 2 point loss.   The Koch Brothers and the right wing people are trolling the Sanders people right now and progressives love the bait being served them.  They are being told: Don't compromise!  Hillary is evil! Vote Stein!  Send a message!  Those voters have every right to vote their conscience. They resent being urged to compromise, and many will not.   Never Hillary.

2.   White resentment over political correctness.   Hillary is correct in saying there is lots of racism out there in America, that it is sometimes subtle but it is pervasive.  She is right.  It is, indeed, a problem that hurts women and blacks and Hispanics.  So it is no surprise that people vote their racial animus.  The Archie Bunker vote is out there.  It shows up in the upper midwest especially among ethnic Catholics, those Reagan Democrats.  Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin have the votes to elect Trump, when they switch from weakly Obama to weakly Trump.  It only takes an extra few votes. 

3.  Events keep Trump's issues alive.   A cop murder between now and November anywhere in America and maybe one more workplace shoot-up should keep the issue of fear more prominent than the issue of economic recovery under Obama.   Events will help Trump.   A few thrown rocks by young black people at a Black Lives Matter rally would do it, especially if a policeman is hit.  Violence helps elect the law and order candidate: Trump.  

That's it.   Simple.   Some conscientious progressives don't vote as a matter of principle, plus Trump gets the extra votes of people uncomfortable and fearful over crime and wackos who act out in the name of Allah, or some other religion. 

President Trump.