Friday, July 29, 2016

The Hillary Theme: Trust her ability to govern

Hillary is Trustworthy where it counts

Donald Trump calls her "Crooked Hillary."   I watch enough Fox News, in bits and pieces while I empty the dishwasher or slice a melon, to see that they are a 100% nonstop infomercial on Hillary's untrustworthiness.   Democratic Convention speakers did not try to repair her reputation on email sloppiness or Goldman Sachs speeches or whether she murdered Vince Foster.

Click here: Link to the NY Times article
The NY Times noted this, and Guest Post writer Thad Guyer expressed disappointment. 

Guyer: "The Ds went with "competence" which has not really been in contention in my view.  The convention ends without anyone saying she's trustworthy and as this NYT piece says, weve conceded the issue. I think that was a big political mistake, that Michelle and Barrack should have proclaimed her integrity, but perhaps this NYT analysis is right that the trust mantle is simply "beyond her reach". 

Competence has its virtues as a basis for electing Hillary Clinton

Humans compartmentalize.   The chocolate is fattening, but it tastes good.  Steph Curry cannot defend big power forwards, but he hits threes.  Ulysses Grant drank but his armies won, George Patton was bold and got a lot of men killed but his armies advanced, Tricky Dick Nixon seemed corrupt somehow but would bring law and order.  Hero Achilles was sulky and petulant but was the Greek army's greatest warrior.  The Bible's beloved King David conspired and killed to get another man's wife.   Sometimes the people necessary for the time and place have flaws.   They are still your heroes.

If Donald Trump wins a majority a great many people will think: he is an undisciplined showoff, but he will shake things up in the direction I want.  People will compartmentalize away his being un-presidential.

People open to voting for Hillary will acknowledge she screwed up on the emails and she  got rich as a political celebrity but will recognize she is competent where it matters, in how to govern.  The convention made governing competence the standard.

But does she say what people want said?   Will she competently lead the country in the direction voters want it to go?

The battle lines got drawn and the trench lines dug.   Trump is anti-immigrant in tone and anti-illegal-and-suspicious immigrant in policy.   Hillary is the candidate of inclusion.  Trump caught a huge wave of anti-immigrant anti-Muslim feeling, combined with a suspicion of financial elites, a populist revolt from both right and left.   Guyer suspects she is on the unpopular side of this argument:   "I admire Hillary for her bold if not "in your face opponents!" open borders advocacy and amnesty for anyone who can make it here. She has elevated that not just to policy but to moral principle. Only criminals will be sent back. So open borders will now be submitted to the jury of the electorate."  

But this blog isn't about admiration.  It intends to study political craftsmanship.    What campaigns are attempting and what works, not what should work or what we like and admire.    

There is a tidal wave of insecurity in the public and Hillary may be tone deaf to it, which helps explain why Trump and Sanders both did so well.  People distrust political and media and financial elites, even more than usual.  Eric Canter lost his primary.  Senators Lugar and Bennet lost theirs.  Sanders nearly beat Hillary.   Voters are ornery.   
Muslim

But she is not entirely tone deaf.   She understands that she is not the best spokesman for inclusion and diversity.

The speakers last night included dark skinned policemen in uniform speaking about their desire to serve and protect their community.  It included Kareem Abdul Jabbar, a familiar, trustworthy, Muslim convert of quiet demeanor who engenders enormous trust and respect.   Trump's broad brush attacks on Muslims end up including Jabbar--an outcome few Americans want.  Another speaker was the deeply dignified father of a Muslim soldier, killed in Afghanistan when he stepped forward and exploded a bomb, saving his unit: a war hero.   Hillary Clinton put a very sympathetic face on victims of Trump's campaign themes.


Hillary Clinton is accused of being a hawk by the dove-left, and correctly so.   Hillary is dug into the trench of inclusion but she is not defending or excusing jihad.  Her heroes are the American soldiers of Muslim faith who fight and die out of pride and patriotism for America.  This is the spear-tip of her attack, voiced by Khizr Khan:

"Go look at the graves of brave Americans who died defending Unites States of America.  You will see all faiths, genders, and ethnicities.   You have sacrificed nothing."

We do not need to trust Hillary on emails when we can see that broad brush xenophobia of the kind that Trump expresses when he is most careless and provocative goes too far.   She is competent where it counts, and she may be more trustworthy on the issue of immigration and inclusion.  Trump goes too far.

Voters who do not trust Hillary or Trump have to decide whether they trust Jabbar and Khan, and she chose well.   If they are the face of immigration and inclusion and diversity, Hillary wins.

But events may work for Trump.  Somewhere, it is certain, some person is planning some new act of murder somewhere in the world.   And some black American will be videotaped throwing rocks at policemen, or something worse.   Events of everyday life, people working, students going to school, lives lived--these are not newsworthy.  An explosion would be.  Events will help Trump more than hurt him.

1 comment:

Thad Guyer said...

Who Will Succeed Trump’s in 2025: Ivanka or Donald, Jr?

You’re right, who can predict now if either of them will succeed their father? Just as Hillary could not win a third Democratic term following Obama, the likelihood of either Trump winning a third Republican term is small. Their greatest commonality (beyond viral media stardom) will be that neither ever held public office. My prediction is that there will be great fanfare for Ivanka to make history as our first female president, but she’ll take her father’s advice to wait.

Trump’s re-election in 2020 will be attributed to history "rigging the system”. Defeat of an incumbent president who was not his party’s “third term” nominee is almost not existent. One termer Ford followed Nixon’s resignation, and one termer Carter followed one-termer Ford. One termer Bush Sr. lost because he was a third-termer following Reagan’s 8 years. Trump followed a two term Democrat, so history says he is almost guaranteed a second term. But the following will also be factors:

(1) Social Media Takeover of “the Press”: Trump’s second term will be blamed partly on the trending takeover of major left media outlets like the Washington Post and LA Times by tech giants Facebook, Google, and Amazon (the latter will be sold to his own company by a frustrated Jeff Bezos). The NY Times will be saved from bankruptcy by its new owner, Twitter. My son’s generation will regard the takeover of “the press” by social media corporations as the natural evolution of computerized “advertising algorithms” that “feed” media to “users” based on browser history. The concept of “subscription readers” will start sounding as antiquated as “email”. Why “subscribe” when Facebook meets your news preferences for free?

(2) The Popularity of Trump’s “Finish the Wall” Campaign: Trump will have overcome Congressional obstruction of wall building appropriations (via “deals”) by the time of the New Hampshire primary in early 2020, by which time only a fraction of it will have been completed. Mexico’s initial pledge of $3.5 billion (coerced by trade sanctions destabilizing its political order) would fund many more miles. Massive Trump rallies will chant “Finish the Wall”, energizing his new campaign slogan, “Get them all out”. Immigration raids and fear-fueled “self-deportations” will have already removed 5 million “illegal aliens” (the term freshly revived), leaving 6 million to go. Frightening anti-deportation riots in LA, NYC and Dallas, quashed by Trump-loving militarized police, will have his approval rating above 55%.

(3) The War on ISIS: A Putin-Trump alliance will decimate ISIS (along with 35,000 Syrian and Libyan civilians) in his first two years. A quadrupling of drone and robotic war technology will enjoy strong popular and defense contractor support, as Halliburton reinvents itself. Islamic terrorism in the US will seem low compared with weekly attrocities by the flood of displaced terrorists pouring into Europe..

(4) Supreme Court Deference to “National Security”: Trump’s Supreme Court justices will be untested on abortion because the Court will deliberately take no abortion cases until “the evangelicals” give him a second term. The first term Court, however, will hold that executive power to protect “national security” trumps the Endangered Species Act for the wall on the Mexican border, and “suspension” of Muslim immigration.

(5) Continued Fracturing of the Democratic Party: Hillary’s failure to win enough Bernieites this year will exacerbate ideological wars between “true progressives” and “establishment sellouts”. Following yet another defeat in 2020, Democrats will nominate a “centrist”, “pragmatic”, “law and order” candidate in 2024 in the mold of Bill Clinton.

My guess is that 2024 will be a choice between 49 year old Donald Trump Jr., and a to-be-announced white male centrist Democrat. Who will win? Oh come on, it’s way too early to predict that.