First Impressions

Each candidate can be reduced to a bumper sticker length brand.

Pro-Hillary branding.  The First Woman President!

Hillary:   Democrat, woman, long-time politician.  "Fighting for US."  ("Crooked Hillary")

Incorruptible Reformer

Bernie: Socialist, incorruptible progressive movement.  "Feel the Bern."  ("Socialist")

Trump is both outsider and Republican

Trump: Republican, strong change leader  "Make America Great Again." ("Racist.)

Of course, the full complex suite of character and policies of each of these are bigger, more complex than a bumper sticker, but right now the brands for each of the surviving candidates are being locked into place.   For some people Hillary is a feminist heroine, for others a corrupted sell-out.  Most voters do not do a careful examination of the policy positions of each candidate.  Consideration of candidates takes place at a gut level and the level of superficial branding.

An analogy is shopping for a picnic: hot dogs, potato salad from the deli case, and a package of cookies.   Some people carefully look at the labels and read the ingredients, especially if there is some special thing to seek or avoid, an allergen or a Kosher restriction,  but the big decision is whether or not a hot dog is appealing, not the exact makeup of the hot dog.  By the time one actually reads the hot dog ingredients one will find something they don't like but the big decision is yes or no on hot dogs.

John Coster

John Coster, a regular reader of this blog, says there is brain science underlying the power of shorthand brand thinking, described in the best selling 2011 book by Nobel Laureate Economist Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow.   Coster offers that Kahneman can help us understand why voters seems so undisturbed by Trump's apparent gaffes and lack of coherent policy.   Coster said Kahneman

"describes two fundamental ways that people process information. He calls them: "System 1" which is based on patterns, is fast, instinctive and emotional; and "System 2" which is slower, analytical, more deliberative, and requires reasoning.  Learning something new or solving difficult problems requires lots of System 2 thinking. It also turns out that System 2 thinking takes lots of effort, stresses our physiology and even manifests itself in things like reduced self-discipline.  System 1 thinking on the other hand is very efficient for handling routine or mundane tasks once they have been learned so it’s quite useful for things like driving, typing or throwing a Frisbee (if you know how). It’s like auto-pilot for the brain."

Coster said that quick System 1 thinking helps explain Trump's appeal.   System 1 thinking rules.

"System 1 thinking dominates this campaign across all parties. System 1 says for example – “I like Trump because he speaks his mind and is a successful business person so he knows how to make money, and he is not a career politician”. System 1 does not analyze or even question how those qualities are relevant to making an effective President; or if being a shrewd successful private business person qualifies him to navigate complex global economics; or whether not being a career politician makes him more trustworthy.   In fact once System 1 establishes that it “likes Trump”(or Clinton or the Seattle Seahawks)– then it’s difficult for System 2 to kick in.  Distraction is another great enemy of System 2 thinking.  The endless media saturation seems to be the perfect environment to feed the System 1 snowball. System 2 doesn't stand a chance."

Trump presents himself as a master negotiator but his greatest skill is in branding, which he does openly and joyfully, putting "Trump" on nice buildings while naming Cruz "Lyin' Cruz" and Hillary Clinton "Crooked Hillary."   Trump is keeping the campaign on a System 1 level of big-picture branding. The presidential vote has largely been determined already.  Partisans already know everything they need to know:  Trump is the Republican and Hillary is the Democrat. Once Hillary and Trump solidified the Democratic and Republican brand name the vast majorities of their votes were locked in.  

There are a few swing voters in the middle who decide one way or the other and there is a bigger pool of voters who are infrequent voters, many of whom who don't align with either party, the Non-Affiliated Voters, the NAVs.   

NAVs don't know and don't care.  If they vote it will be on superficial System 1 impressions which will dominate how they process System 2 information.   Persuasion will take place on superficial grounds and whether they bother to turn out.   (I am not one of those people but I can understand them.   Their attitude toward politics is the same as my attitude toward the NFL.   I don't know and don't care about professional football, but I will watch the Super Bowl if I am goaded into it by friends or family.)

The battle is being played out right now in the attempt by the two parties to brand one another in clear, simple System 1 terms.  

Is Trump a courageous truth teller or a racist bull in a china shop?   Trump's comments on "Mexican" Judge Curiel helps document branding of Trump as careless racist.

Is Hillary a battle tested defender of oppressed groups or a crooked veteran of sleazy politics. The email server helps document branding of Hillary as crooked.

We won't hear very much about tax policy and student loan interest rate relief because those require analysis that is irrelevant to System 1 thinking.