The Trump Campaign is at an inflection point. It could move sharply either way.
Trump might be wildly successful. Or not.
Two days ago I wrote Trump very likely made a big mistake. He said Judge Gonzalo Curiel, born in Indiana, was a "Mexican" who couldn't be a fair federal judge, and then given a chance to reconsider his words instead re-affirmed them. Now he was stuck with an open expression of ethnic/racial bias. This would hurt him, I suggested. Racial bias is supposed to be repressed, not expressed.
Yesterday I wrote that Trump has a strategy that works. Trump's gut tells him that Americans are more clannish (or racist or xenophobic) than is acknowledged by the respectable elites and by giving it voice he is perceived as a strong, fearless, honest leader, willing to speak the simple truths that the prissy elites are not. Moreover, his being criticized by the GOP elites (Ryan, McConnell, others) does not hurt him. It helps him. How can criticism help? The criticism is narrowly cast on the overt racism, not him personally, so he stands out as the "common sense" leader versus their political correctness, so it creates unity in the GOP showing that people who are racist and people who are offended by racism can all be together. Trump is racist but on the anti-racist team, both.
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| Gingrich, telling Fox's Wallace that Trump erred |
Yes, this is a cynical strategy, but presidential elections are an extended negotiation with the public and Trump is a pro at negotiations. I have watched him read the audience in the room at his talks, and he has proven to understand audiences better than have 16 Republican opponents, plus the Republican establishment.
Trump has confidence in his strategy. He didn't back off. Indeed, he extended it--he double downed. On Sunday Trump told that most respectable of mainstream news sources, CBS's Face the Nation, that a Muslim judge would also be unfit to judge him. John Dickerson asked if a Muslim judge would be biased against him. Click here: Face the Nation
Trump: "It's possible, yes. Yeah. That would be possible, absolutely. . . I'm not talking about tradition, I'm talking about common sense, OK?"
This is cynical and an open expression of religious bias but it is successful political craft and strategy: There are a lot fewer American Muslims than there are Hispanics, and Muslims are scarier than Hispanics for most Americans. It is politically safe in America to express dislike and distrust of Muslims, and within the Republican primary electorate it is acceptable--even necessary--to reject Muslims as "other", as outsiders, even 3rd and 4th generation Muslims. Most Christians identify as "Christian", not as people of faith in a common Abrahamic religion. By extending rather than minimizing xenophobia, Trump has moved to stronger political ground.
But it is still dangerous ground. Even Fox News--which moved to unabashed support for Trump once he secured the GOP nomination--is expressing concern. Racism has been hinted at and exploited, not expressed. Richard Nixon wins, George Wallace loses.
Trump's apparent careless talk feeds the "dangerously unstable" meme rather than the "truth teller" meme. Hillary's San Diego speech, given in a composed non-shout manner, outlined a picture of Trump that has traction: Trump is dangerously careless and extemporaneous.
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| 1:29: "There's no one with a better temperament than me." |
So here is the inflection point: If Trump is truth-telling common sense, stoking widespread ethnic and religious prejudice in the American body politic, then Trump wins. If Trump is the sort of person who is shockingly careless in his comments and general manner, then Hillary is right and he is too dangerous to elect.
Trump, in Redding, California, looked hot and sweaty and more desperate than confident. The theater and stagecraft that normally works well for Trump failed him. He looked sweaty and defensive. Trump at the lectern in Redding was flailing at a point of crisis for his campaign, when an opponent was making solid points, a very dangerous thing for a man who might be in the White House Situation Room, which is Hillary's point. In response to Hillary Trump looked terrible
Trump may have in his power the ability to determine the direction this inflects, and it depends on his manner. If he looks cool and self confident in the face of the soft criticism from the GOP and hard criticism from Hillary, then he is a party and national leader whose instincts reflect sound common sense. If he looks rattled and desperate, then Hillary is right and Americans cannot elect him.
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