My Christmas Gift: Trump Explained

Here is my Christmas gift:  I am going to explain Trump to you.

Most of my extended circle of friends and readers find Trump interesting but not vote-worthy.   He fails the "presidential dignity" test, he seems unfiltered and undisciplined, and the issues he talks to seem a little too raw in their xenophobia/racism.   Many see a "grain of truth" in what he says, but don't like how it sounds, coming from Trump.

Since he has so dominated the Republican agenda Trump has shaped the rest of the field into Trump-lites, Trumps-in-code, and sort-of-Trumps.   For example Trump says "stop all Muslim immigration", while Cruz, Rubio, Bush, etc. say we just need to do this for a couple of years, or until we have the investigatory processes in place, or just Muslims from the Middle East but not India or Indonesia, or yes on people from majority Muslim countries but only the Christians from those countries.    It gets at the same impulse but puts a legal distinction on it so that the result can be justified as an act of rigorous rationality instead of simple xenophobia.  

So that is Trump's appeal number ONE:  Trump acknowledges that people profile one another and tells people to quit worrying about it, that it is okay.

Everyone profiles others.  It is an essential part of living in the world.   Liberal orthodoxy condemns it, which people resent.   

Of course we profile others.   It is as inevitable and human as needing to use a bathroom.  We do it, it is essential, and we do it privately.   Example:  When I see a person at a grocery store with gray hair, a bent posture, leaning on a walker I jump to the conclusion from that glance that the person is elderly, frail, gets Social Security and Medicare, is retired, is likely to watch TV, but is unlikely to be tech-savvy or use multiple apps on a smart phone, is also unlikely to drive a sports car, and is unlikely to listen to rap music genre radio stations.  

I might be wrong in some of my guesses, but it would guide my actions.   I wouldn't approach that person in the grocery aisle and ask their advice on which app is superior for getting reviews on the calorie count of potatoes versus yams.)

Profiling on the basis of age, in a grocery store, is safe for me to admit to.   But if I were in a position to hire someone in a job, then it would be considered immoral and illegal.  And certainly profiling and assuming a suite of behaviors or predilections based on presumed race or ethnicity, is condemned,  especially when one assumes that black people rob you and Mexicans rape you and Muslims want to terrorize you.    Many people carry those assumptions around with them, maybe just a little, sometimes a lot, and the presumptions are fed by news shows, deep held stereotyping and, the selective ways humans believe and discount what they observe depending on whether it fits or contradicts existing paradigms.   Anyhow, people profile others, it is reality, and a lot of voters are tired of being told to feel bad about it and having to hide it.  

To summarize,  Trump gives people permission to do what they already do, profile others with racial, religious, and racial stereotypes.

Trump's appeal number TWO: Trump advocates for the legitimate interests of people hurt by globalism and immigration.

Prosperous readers are a little out of touch with the economic reality that globalization of our economy and the somewhat free movement of labor has created a giant group of economic losers.   My prosperous readers tend to have college degrees and have (or had) good jobs using skills in managing data or people.   Licensed professional people or managers are helped by globalism.   Barbie dolls that cost $10 at Walmart are sourced in China for 47 cents, in a box with cardboard and clear front, packed into a stout cardboard case, and loadable into a container for transport to Long Beach.  This means that $9.53 of that $10 comes to Americans for the branding, marketing, distribution--a pretty great deal for us.   But those American jobs and share of the pie goes to the owners of the Mattel brand, to the owners of Walmart, and to a few good American jobs in high level data-manipulation, brand management, accounting, and trademarking--jobs for accountants and lawyers and logistics professionals.  The low end incomes are Americans at final Walmart distribution and of Chinese laborers in manufacturing.   

Bottom line:   globalism and the easy entry of low skilled immigrants help highly skilled people with jobs that a few Americans can be well paid to do but it hurts non-college people who might have otherwise had manufacturing jobs or better paid retail jobs in a specialty toy store.   

Prosperous people, both Democrats and Republicans,  have been reluctant to acknowledge this, happy to hold on to the notion that "free trade helps everyone".    Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama assert this, as does the Republican establishment.  Personally,  I probably agree that free trade helps national economies on the whole, but lives are lived as individuals and there are winners and losers within the whole.   The 23 year old with an accounting degree and good social skills can find a place in the global economy; the 23 year old who got through high school but who found college both boring and difficult finds himself competing with workers in east Asia and immigrants from Latin America.   

So that squeezed person looks at the political landscape and notes that Clinton (both Bill and Hillary) like free trade, they note that the Wall Street Journal type Republican likes free trade and hates unions to boot, he resents the fact that establishment Republicans (Bush, Rubio, Graham, and the Wall Street donor class)  talk of "responsible immigration".  They look at these immigrants as un-entitled interlopers and competitors.   

One does not have to be racist or xenophobic to see those people as unwelcome.   It is reasonable and rational for non-college people to say that America should be for Americans.   We or our parents fought the wars, we are here paying the taxes, we live here, we vote here, we are native born.   It is OUR country and "We the People" make the rules, just like it says in the first three  words of the Constitution.    It shouldn't be crazy or selfish or racist to think this; it should be common sense.   

These voters might not buy into the racial and religious prejudice and profiling part of the Trump argument, but they are ripe for hearing it and a great many hear it loud and clearly because the newcomers are in fact culturally different and, after the Boston Marathon and Paris and San Bernardino, they are frightening.   It is their children who come home saying that their teacher spends extra time repeating things in Spanish to some of the kids taking time from them.   It is some of them who pay full price for their kids' school lunches while others--perhaps darker skinned newcomers--get it free.  They see a Republican and Democratic establishment that appears to be bending over backward to helping outsiders--at their expense.

A Democratic solution perhaps making their kids, too, eligible for free lunches is just another iteration of rubbing in how the Democrats are trying to buy votes with welfare, not a policy of family wage jobs.   Trump voters resent this enormously.   They don't want welfare.  They want to not need welfare.   

A Republican solution that says that free trade builds wealth pleases Wall Street and their chosen candidates, especially Jeb Bush, who is roundly condemned by these voters who understand that Bush isn't representing them.   The Republican donor class is their enemy, not their ally.

But Trump does attempt to represent that struggling American.   Trump says he isn't obligated either to liberal "politically correct" orthodoxy nor is he obligated to the Wall Street Journal donor class of globalists.   Trump understands their economic interests--"good trade deals" and sending the illegal immigrants home--and he understands their resentment over being shamed for having gut feelings of dislike or suspicion of others.

So:  that is my Christmas gift, wrapped up for your Christmas morning.  That is Trump's appeal.   Trump gives people permission to feel resentment, suspicion, and dislike for competitors and enemies.   And Trump represents the economic interests of people who are being hurt by foreign competition and immigration and who are being ignored by the Republican and Democratic establishment.   

The appeal that Trump has is real and legitimate, and the sooner that Hillary bends in that direction the stronger will be her candidacy.  Meanwhile, on the Republican side, either Trump will ride this appeal to the White House or it will be done by someone else who is a better messenger of the same appeal.