Sunday, December 20, 2015

Bush Fights Trump

Let's do a close look at 58 seconds of Jeb Bush.   It says a lot about him, and his audience.    I will describe what I observed, but you can see it for yourself:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/19/politics/jeb-bush-donald-trump-jerk/

Here is the text of what he says.   He says he is "discouraged" and his tone is that of a discouraged man:
Just one more thing I gotta get this off my chest.   Donald Trump is a jerk.   You can’t, you can’t, you can’t, you cannot insult your way to the presidency.   You cannot disparage women, Hispanics, disabled people. Who is he kidding?  This country is far better than that.  The idea that he’s actually running for president, and insulting people, is deeply discouraging, to be honest with you, and we should reject that out of hand.  I hope you’re going to reject it by voting for me.  But a guy like that should not be the front-running candidate of our great party.   That is not how we win.     I feel better now.   I just, I just, I gave myself therapy there.  Thank you for allowing me do it"

The big applause line comes early, right after the word "jerk".    Here is what the audience looks like.   One man, in the blue sport coat, rouses himself up to an applause but the rest of the group behind him and on camera (who should have been hand-picked for reliability) was polite, not enthusiastic.

Yes, there was applause from time to time, but it was tepid compared to those from audiences drawn by the front-running candidates, the ones whose poll numbers have been climbing:  Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie.  

I have commented before on Jeb Bush's body language, especially the hunched shoulders and his hanging arms.  This is the archetypal  body language of weakness.  Hands down in submission, torso unprotected in a fight.   Strong word among schoolboys--"jerk"--but otherwise weak.      Here are snaps of him throughout the 58 seconds:


I consider this a giant additional boost for Trump.

The Republican debate was a scramble among the 9 people on stage to project who was the fiercest.   ISIS would be smashed, demolished, utterly destroyed, carpet bombed, and killed if any of them got elected.  

Then Putin weighed in with some nice words for Trump.   Polls announced today say that Trump has moved up sharply in the polls to 39% of the vote.

The big Republican audiences applaud words of anger and firm resolve.  Rubio, Cruz, Christie, and especially Trump serve them up.   Jeb Bush has taken the lead in voicing the attitude of the traditional Republican constituency of educated Rotary Chamber of Commerce business and professional people--the people who had been the centerpiece voting bloc and donation base of the Republican party.  (I am pretty comfortable with these people.   These are my former clients, people I eat lunch with, people I sit on nonprofit boards with.)  

Bush's words are weak and tentative, his tone is discouraged, and his body language projects hopelessness.   Look closely.   He did not affirmatively defend women, Hispanics, the disabled.   Bush just complained that Trump was insulting them.   Between women, Hispanics and families with a disable person I am guessing Bush could have argued on behalf of 65% of the electorate!   And instead of making the argument as a matter of enthusiasm as a champion for a great cause and constituency, he said it was a matter of hopeless personal therapy.  

Jeeze.

The contrast with Trump (cocky, belligerent, confident) could not be more direct, and this elevates Trump.     Trump is winning the Putin-lookalike primary, and Bush is helping Trump by showing what a winner looks like.   And what it looks like to lose.

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