Sunday, October 17, 2021

"Oregon, don't be a sucker."

     "If you are sitting at a poker table, and you cannot figure out who the sucker is, then it's you."

     Attributed to Paul Newman, Amarillo Slim, Warren Buffet, and many others.


If Texas gerrymanders--and it does--shouldn't Oregon do so as well?


A category error is a misunderstanding of the essential nature of a thing. The classic example is the sentence "Green ideas sleep." The sentence is grammatical, but nonsense. Greenness describes things, not ideas, and green doesn't sleep. Another category error would be to think you are having a debate when the other side thinks it is a gunfight.

The Supreme Court backed away from "calling balls and strikes" on gerrymandering. Chief Justice Roberts said that even when district boundaries "reasonably seem unjust"  district boundaries are a political matter to be decided in the two political branches of government, not the courts.

There is a "good government," idea of districting, built around the idea that voters should pick their representatives, not representatives picking their voters. The will of the people is expressed by the people they elect. Presumably, if the overall population of a polity with ten representatives is 55% Democratic in orientation and 45% Republican, and if the districts were "fair," then one would expect about six Democrats to get elected.

Some states have laws in place to establish independent non-partisan, non-political commissions to make districting decisions. Some states do not. Texas and Oregon allow the political branches of government to make the district lines.

Oregon had a tradition of bipartisanship. We have elected Democratic and Republican governors and senators. We have had four out of five Democratic U.S. Representatives in a state with two Republican senators, Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood. Oregon voted for Republican Gerald Ford in 1976 instead of Jimmy Carter, but also for Democrat Mike Dukakis in 1988 instead of George H.W. Bush. Oregon has become more Democratic in recent years. The Oregon vote in the presidential election of 2020 was 56.5% for Biden to 40.1% for Trump, a 16.4% margin.

Texas voted Democratic back in 1968 and 1976 but it is southern, rural, White, and religious--therefore, now Republican. Those demographics are changing. Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are now the fifth and sixth most populous metropolises in the country. Austin has become hip--the new Brooklyn. They gained two congressional seats because they gained four million people in the past decade. Ninety percent of those new residents are "people of color," i.e. Hispanic, Black, Asian.



Texas has a tradition of aggressive gerrymandering to protect Republican majorities. Texas is still a red state, turning purple, with a Trump-Biden split of 52.2% to 46.4%, a 5.8% margin. The current division of U.S. Representatives from Texas is 25 Republicans to 13 Democrats. 

The Texas Tribune wrote:
https:/texastribune
Republicans constructed the map with incumbent protection in mind — a strategy that focused on bolstering vulnerable GOP seats rather than aggressively adding new seats that could flip from blue to red. However, the map does in fact strengthen Republican positioning overall in Texas, going from 22 to 25 districts that would have voted for Donald Trump in 2020. The number of congressional districts that voted for Joe Biden would have shrunk by one, from 14 to 13.

If Texas Congressional districts were drawn to match the partisan split in the state, Texas would have about two more Republican representatives than Democratic ones, not the ten they have currently. With the two new seats drawn for partisan advantage, the split is intended to go to 25 to 13, a twelve seat advantage.

How can they squeeze out ten "extra" GOP seats?  They have the votes in the Texas legislature and a Republican governor, and they can draw lines where they want. They can, so they will, proudly and openly. 

It would be a category error for Democrats in Oregon to think this is a televised PGA golf tournament in which technical rules of the game are observed closely and applied punctiliously. This isn't a "fair fight" in a civics class. It is a process in which states that have Republican majorities in the legislature and a Republican governor draw districts to maximize their partisan advantage. This isn't theoretical or proscriptive; it is practical and in place now. Texas is doing it and adding to it.

What should Oregon Democrats do? Understand the category. If it better meets their values, then change the future game nationwide with legislation requiring non-partisan district-making everywhere. In the meantime recognize the game they are in. You are at the table. People around you are playing their hands to win. 

Don't be the sucker at the table.

 

Saturday, October 16, 2021

Ashli Babbitt, martyr.

Re-writing history:

The Capital invaders were patriots. Ashli Babbitt was a victim. The real insurrection was the election on November 3, not January 6.


Introducing Ashli Babbitt.



While people were crashing through barricades and moving about the Capitol on January 6, Donald Trump was serene. Plan B was working. They were going to convince the Vice President and Congress that "the people" wanted to keep Trump in office. The Capitol rioters were peaceful protesters, and he loved them. He tweeted:
These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!

Then, the next day, a moment of remorse. It played badly on TV. Their actions, he said, were a "heinous attack":

The demonstrators who infiltrated the Capitol have defiled the seat of American democracy. To those who engaged in the acts of violence and destruction, you do not represent our country. And to those who broke the law, you will pay.

That was then. 

Trump now describes the Capitol rioters as patriots. It was a modern Boston Tea Party, a disorderly event undertaken to bring political justice. This week Trump sent a video to a birthday party memorial done by Ashli Babbitt's family. Ashli Babbitt is the woman shot and killed as she attempted to climb through the broken glass window to enter the House Chamber. Trump said she is a "truly incredible person" and he offers his "unwavering support to her family."

Movements gain energy from martyrs. Ashli Babbitt is offered up to play that role. Fox News hosts treat her as an innocent victim. Demonstrators rally in her defense.


Ashli Babbitt is an Air Force veteran who became deeply involved with pro-Trump activities. As with George Floyd, there are problems with making her a hero. Floyd had a history of domestic violence. Protesters overlooked that; it was irrelevant to the real point of the protests, the way he was killed. 

Ashli Babbitt was part of a crowd that was shoving and hammering on the broken window on a door barricaded with stacked up furniture. Beyond the door was the House Chamber, where House Members were huddled. The scene was loud and disorderly, people shouting "Fuck the Blue." Might she have "listened to reason" if she had better understood that her death was imminent if she did not retreat? Here is the scene:



The video below was new to me. Here is Ashli Babbitt, in a self-filmed video, done while she drove her car. Possibly some Americans will be thrilled by her passion. I consider her dangerously manic. I think efforts to portray Babbitt as a victim will be difficult.

Friday, October 15, 2021

Whatever happened to "Love Thy Neighbor?"

Vaccinations and mask-wearing could have been a matter of being kind, courteous, patriotic, and Christian.  


Instead, COVID vaccination and mask-wearing came down to an argument about rights. 


You can't make me!  Yes we can!


It is not crazy or utopian to think that the whole COVID response could have played out very differently--even in Texas.  In fact, Texas is a model for how it is possible for government to ask people to do the public-spirited thing, even at the expense of personal inconvenience. Texas positions not littering as a matter of respect and pride of place. 

Bumper strip
The "Don't Mess with Texas" campaign deals with a simple reality that from the point of view of any one individual riding in a car with fast food wrappers, the easy self-interested thing to do is toss it out the window. Litter is an economist's "externality." Littering offloads a cost to someone else, in this case the general public. Littering can be rationalized as a drop in the bucket. There are laws prohibiting littering but people can litter when unseen and almost always get away with it. An anti-littering campaign needs to get people to do the public-spirited thing, against their own personal interests, voluntarily.

Texas has a campaign of TV ads, billboards, special events, and road signs urging people to do the right thing out of love for Texas. In one of dozens of TV ads produced over the past almost-four decades, Willie Nelson sings:
"You can travel on beautiful highways
Where the beautiful bluebonnets grow,
And you're still in beautiful Texas,
The most beautiful place that I know."

Narrator: "Seventy percent of litter on Texas highways is made up of small trash. Small trash makes a big mess. Don't mess with Texas."
https://youtu.be/ys7KMAj9o-U

It is not a quixotic, Pollyanna approach. Americans volunteer to do public spirited, considerate things all the time. People give blood. People support good causes with their time, energy, and money, from church work to scouting to 4-H to soccer leagues. Democrats and Republicans volunteer. People find their own rewards for doing this but it generally includes self-satisfaction in thinking one is doing some tiny bit to make the world better by helping others. 

The original positioning of vaccinations was to protect the vaccinated person. In hindsight, this was a bad start. The emphasis was on getting the oldest seniors protected because they were most at risk of hospitalization or death from the disease, and health care workers because they were most at risk of catching the disease. Throughout the rollout of the vaccine many people finagled to get to the front of the line--in hindsight another bad message. Vaccination was a privilege for oneself. The vaccine was positioned as a "lifeboat" amid an accident at sea. There was very little messaging about the idea that vaccinated people were much less likely to spread the disease. In that context religious leaders put their attention on whether or not there was any use of fetal tissue in the vaccines and on the ethics of who "should" get vaccinated first.  

Meanwhile, team red, which connects Trump's leadership, GOP media, and evangelical ministers, settled into a public stance of skepticism or outright opposition to masking, social distancing, and vaccinations. Since vaccinations were a matter of self-protection, deciding whether or not to get vaccinated was a matter of personal choice, and therefore a way to signal opposition to Democrats and COVID mitigation techniques. Christian conservative clergy backed their team. Trust Jesus, not Fauci. Pressure to get vaccinated was analogized as opposition to religious conscience. Evangelical Christians are among the least vaccinated segment of the population and the most dug-in in opposition to vaccination.

At this point in the COVID pandemic, most people acknowledge that the worst disease outcomes are among the unvaccinated--the red team--and that vaccinated people are far less likely to spread the disease since they are less likely to get COVID and are less contagious for a shorter period.  And in parallel, mask-wearing is primarily a matter of respect for others, since masks diminish spread of the disease outward, and give little protection to the mask wearer.

The religious community has an opportunity to urge people to do onto others as they might wish to be done to themselves. Don't spread COVID. They could make a widespread, public appeal that Christians show love for one's neighbor by getting vaccinated and wearing a mask in public. It isn't too late and it isn't a crazy suggestion.

If there had been a vaccine to stop the spread of leprosy, what would Jesus have done?  




Thursday, October 14, 2021

Has Trump finally gone too far?

Is Trump crazy, as in unhinged and self-destructive?


Or crazy like a fox?


Trump comes across as manic. Yesterday he had ten new statements on his Save America website, donaldjtrump.com.  The one that got the most notice was this one:

Statement by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America


If we don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 (which we have thoroughly and conclusively documented), Republicans will not be voting in ‘22 or ‘24. It is the single most important thing for Republican to do.

 

Won't vote! That must send shivers up the spine of GOP officeholders and candidates.

Five of his statements yesterday were original statements by Trump. Those statements included complaints about judges, election officials and "RINO" (Republicans In Name Only) officeholders who refused to support his effort to overturn elections in swing states. He used vivid, quotable language: "Most corrupt," "viciously," "disgrace," "partisan hacks," and sentences like this, "If we had an honest media this Election would have been overturned many months ago, but our media is almost as corrupt as our political system!"

No doubt these are welcome words to many GOP voters. Polls report that a significant number of them agree with Trump even though those same ballots elected many of the current state and federal officeholders. But angry words of a "viciously" stolen election are not the strongest message for GOP candidates in marginal districts. Better to focus on immigration, border security, inflation, gas prices, Afghanistan. Democrats look divided because they are divided. There is a huge opportunity for Republicans if they are united and stay focused on good issues

There is one big message that saves the day for Biden: He is not Trump. He isn't a wild and crazy guy fixated on reversing an election he lost and willing to overthrow the government to stay in office, and willing to intimidate Republican officeholders into going along with him. Trump just made it harder for Republicans.
 Trump's criticism of elections may have been the margin that cost two Georgia senators their offices. Now he is doing it again. It is crazy. Right?

Or not. When considering Trump's motives and strategy the best rule of thumb is to think that Trump might not be the impulsive, undisciplined, and seat-of-the-pants goofball that Democrats think he is. There may be method here.

Trump is firming up support for himself, even with the GOP officeholders who have most reason to be alarmed by his talk about boycotting an election. He is sending a warning shot. It is a doomsday ultimatum. The party is in his hands. An election boycott sinks them all. Or he could pick and choose, and punish RINO heretics:
RINOs in the State Senate and House who for, whatever reason, do nothing but obstruct instead of seeking the truth. Hopefully, each one of these cowardly RINOs, whose names will be identified and forthcoming, will be primaried, with my Complete and Total Endorsement, in the upcoming election.
Trump gets credibility from established GOP stalwarts like Chuck Grassley. Trump needs them to be afraid of him, and they are. He needs them to stay silent and go along with Trump, and they do. Silence is consent. 

People understand the situation backwards when they write that Trump is tearing the GOP  to pieces because he doesn't care about it, only himself. Trump is unifying the GOP like no Republican leader since Ronald Reagan. Go along, or else get cast into the fire the way Liz Cheney was. Trump may not have read Machiavelli, but he understands him. Better to be feared than loved. 

A unified GOP is the surest route back to the White House and control of the government. If he gets 46% of the national vote on election day, he wins the electoral vote and the White House. In close states controlled by a Republican legislature, he won't even need that many.


Wednesday, October 13, 2021

The COVID workplace

We notice the big things in real time. We don't notice the very big things until later.


Workplaces are changing, maybe forever.


We have all heard the idea that fish don't notice water. They notice food and predators, because those are very important to their survival and they are in their environment. We presume they do not notice the water itself, though, because it is the environment.

William Shatner is in the news now. He is a robust-looking 90 year old, and if all goes well he is going into space, for real this time. William Shatner has an outsize role in my consciousness. Star Trek was the one scripted TV show watched by people I knew in the late 1960s. Groups of college classmates would gather together in living rooms and common areas to watch that one TV show, drink beer, and shoot the bull. Otherwise TVs were off unless a president was making an Oval Office announcement.

What we may not have noticed because it was too obvious was that Star Trek was a "workplace drama." The Starship Enterprise was a job site. The crew members were co-workers and the basis for the drama was the interaction of those fellow employees. Workplace dramas are a genre. Even people who watch very little TV can identify them: The Office, 30 Rock, Boston Legal, LA Law, Grey's Anatomy. The office setting is convenient for a TV show, with limited sets. An office puts people in close proximity, and give them a reason to interact, so we can see characters develop and stories unfold. Besides, workplaces are the natural place where our lives play out. Workplaces are an alternative family. Co-workers are people we interact with closely five days a week. 

What is happening right now, while the punditry is focusing on important things like a pandemic and Afghanistan and China and inflation and everything else, this office workplace family is going through a separation. It is mostly amicable, but it is a separation nevertheless. Maybe the family members aren't even drifting apart, even though the members might only rarely see each other in real life anymore. Or ever. Office work by professional, technical, management, and back office support is moving remote. It was "special" for COVID, supposedly temporary, but it is turning into the default. A lot of people seem to prefer it. Bosses, too.

People work connected electronically, not spatially. We don't have "workplaces" any more, except maybe for special occasions. We may be going through the cultural and workplace equivalent of water for fish. Our assumptions about "workplace" may be very different in a decade or two.


For three decades I went to the office to do my work as a Financial Advisor. Back about eight years ago, a couple of years before I retired, the company I worked for changed their opinion on working from home. Instead of it being essentially forbidden, it became enabled. The office established "remote access" technology which brought a version of the workplace desktop to a home desktop computer, a change that allowed Financial Advisors to do limited work from home. The unsaid message about remote access was that it was the exception. It was a fallback arrangement in case we were having a sick day, or in case of another 9-11 attack. That was then. Now almost everybody works remotely. Advisors have an office, and there is a branch office, but it is not clear to me why. The place is nearly empty.

There are a multitude of corollaries that flow from "going to the office." One is the nature of real records. The concept of getting things on paper has changed. In a face-to-face world, there were pink "While You Were Out" slips of paper. Now notices and assignments are shared electronically. In the COVID world a paper signature is inconvenient, so there is a work-around that has become common: Electronic signatures. The process is so simple that even elderly clients can manage it. The electronic record is now the "real" record. 

Video connection via Zoom or some equivalent system is now commonplace. People have gotten better at it over this year. People know how to mute themselves. Even the first wave of Boomers, now people in their 70s, have generally figured out virtual meetings. A board meeting of a dozen people might be more productive than one done in "real life," except that the very notion of "real" is changing. As with documents, the electronic version is the real one.

The distinction between hands-on work and virtual work exacerbates the giant fractures in American life that are coincidental with the partisan divide. Democrats are the party of college-educated office workers in cities, especially women--the kind of person most likely to be working remotely. The archetypal voter in the Republican base is a non-college educated person who works outdoors or in factories that make something tangible.  Fields are not plowed remotely, nor is oil drilled, coal mined, nor delivery trucks unloaded. Some work in the world is done by real people touching real things. The divide in political sensibilities between a female office worker in a city and a male working in an industrial setting was profound before COVID. This is one more thing widening the divide between the two groups.

Big changes take time to ripen. Possibly Americans will decide that they want to go back to the office, but the early indications are the opposite. People who can work remotely are choosing to do so.

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Yesterday. . . oh, I believe in yesterday

The Big Lie isn't the biggest lie.


The biggest lie is MAGA, an imagined past. 


 People believe lies because they want to believe them.

 


Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump promised a return to a better past. Trump caught a wave of public discomfort with the pace of social change coming out of the 1960s' liberation movements. Some felt it was too much, too fast, too disruptive.  Old habits and prejudices were forbidden and driven underground, awaiting Trump to give them voice and legitimacy. Biden's imagined past was simpler. It was the world before Trump, who was too much, too fast, and too disruptive a president. Voters thought once we were rid of Trump's manic divisiveness and authoritarianism, America would go back to normal. 

Trump's imagined America is gone. The internet and container ships ended America's economic isolation, and women aren't giving up their jobs, ethnic minorities aren't going away, and homosexuals are not going back into the closet. Biden's imagined America is past, too. A great many Americans like Trump's brand of ethno-nationalism. Democrats will slowly win the culture war which will cause them to lose elections. This is an era of turmoil.

Rick Millward is a singer-songwriter and music producer. Songwriters know all about the appeal of songs of heartbreak. There was something special, but now its gone, gone, gone. Millward's reverie about old cars is a songwriter's insight. It is pointless or pathetic or humorous when 70-year-old men squeeze into old Corvettes and little deuce coupes, but they do it anyway. They remember what they wanted. They remember the feeling. Memory and desire stir dull roots.


Millward worked in Nashville where he produced over 30 projects, including two Emmy-nominated soundtracks. He now lives in Medford where he is part of the local music scene. His newest project, Loveland, is available on streaming platforms. Local readers can hear him live on Friday at 5:00 p.m. at South Stage Cellars in Jacksonville, Oregon. 




Guest Post by Rick Millward



It’s a guy thing. An older guy thing. 


American automobile manufacturers marketed their products relentlessly in the post WWII era. The goal was two cars in every garage, and we started seeing houses built by the millions that could accommodate them. As the 50s and 60s progressed car designs became sexier, engines more powerful, and Americans completely succumbed to the call of the highway, with 50,000 miles of interstate built during the period.


For many young men during this time it was a rite of passage to get one’s driver’s license and eventually one’s own vehicle. For most of us it wasn’t a shiny new Chevy or Ford, it was a used car, a little beat up but running ok. What we did to jazz these old jalopies was to add decoration to make them look fancier, and buy parts to “soup up” the engines for more power, starting with a louder muffler, (or removing it all together). In those days school letting out was a cacophony as all the boys peeled out of the parking lot and roared off to the Hasty Freeze. Good times.


Most of us couldn’t afford a new car until much later, and usually it was our first experience with credit. Even so, it wasn’t the Corvette or Mustang we pined for as a teen, more likely a sensible Honda. As time went on, depending on how our finances and careers progressed we moved on to nicer models, but with an emphasis on comfort and practicality, not flash.


Fast forward to the present. What we find with many “boomers” is now that they are at a point in their lives with some disposable income and free time, the mobile passions of youth actually never completely faded. Cars from the 50s and 60s are highly desirable as collectables and there is a multi-million dollar industry restoring them to their showroom glory. The price tags for these old babes can hit six figures, and the market is robust.


It’s a testimony to the power of marketing, that decades later the message still has resonance and can motivate behavior. It doesn’t matter that there is virtually no substance in it. To some it’s a bit sad to see an older gent cruising down the road to the Rite-Aid in his chrome encrusted status symbol, seemingly entranced in the distant past. 


Yet, I have to admit I feel the same pull, the adolescent yearning shaped by all those ads and even though I can see how silly it is, and have been able to resist the urge to fulfill my own hot rod fantasy, sometimes I still push down just a bit harder on the gas pedal of my sensible sedan and marvel at how susceptible we can be to a lie we desperately want to believe. 

                                                                  =====   =====   ===== 



Here is a link to one of the songs in Loveland: "Stowaway": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD0KkTflaDY

"I am lost on an ocean of memories. I'm a stowaway on a ship of love."



Monday, October 11, 2021

Monoclonal Antibodies.

Is the vaccine too experimental and mysterious for you? 

Go ahead and get COVID. There are monoclonal antibody therapies as a backstop.

But heads up. The treatment drugs are experimental, lack full FDA approval, work only some of the time, and are made from humanized tissue of rodents.

Some of the people I talk to in farm country tell me they are not vaccinated. Possibly the real reason is tribal and political. They are members of the team that doesn't trust Democrats. They have a rationale. They tell me the vaccinations seem to them new, unproven, and experimental. "I don't want to be a guinea pig for stuff I don't understand," they tell me.

Their comments were in mind when I received this joke email in my inbox:



KFC has secret spices, Coke has a secret formula, the labels on packaged food include things few people understand or can pronounce, but we eat them. Yet the vaccine is a mystery and people say they don't trust mysteries. It seems odd to me.

It seems less odd in the context of therapies available for the people who contract COVID. There may be a safety net if one gets sick, so why risk a mysterious vaccine. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine have mixed word of mouth reputations, getting criticism from health authorities. But one therapy gets support from both Trump and health experts, monoclonal antibodies. Trump was administered them last year and he said he felt better almost immediately. There is a short period after someone knows they are infected, but before hospitalization, when this therapy appears to help. Florida governor Ron DeSantis has emphasized post-infection treatment with monoclonal antibodies. He has set up state-run infusion centers.

CNN described it this way:
As the Delta variant drives a surge of Covid-19 cases in Florida, a rapid-response unit will be deployed to administer monoclonal antibody treatments to residents infected with the virus, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday. This is the most effective treatment that we've yet encountered for people who are infected with Covid-19," DeSantis said. "This, applied early and properly, has the ability to reduce your likelihood of being hospitalized." 
The irony for those worried about unproven and mysterious vaccines is that monoclonal antibody infusions come labeled with prominent warnings that they are new and experimental, with emergency use authorization by the FDA. "Emergency use," rather than full FDA approval, was the widespread excuse used by many for rejecting vaccines. The vaccines now have full FDA approval.

The best known drug is Regeneron's antibody cocktail. It got early criticism for using stem cells from an aborted fetus. In fact it does not contain fetal cells, according to a spokesperson for the drug, New Jersey internist Soma Mandal, MD. Kidney cells from an aborted fetus were used to develop the drug and test the drug, but are not in the drug, she said.

According to the manufacturer, the Regen-Cov antibody cocktail of casirivmab and imdevimab was created using a proprietary genetically engineered "mouse platform" optimized to become fully human antibodies. The drugs come from original study of a genetically humanized mouse but now other mammals. The new cells mimic human cells, but aren't human. They write: 

The manufacture of our monoclonal antibodies starts with a mammalian cell line called the Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells. These CHO cells are modified with a synthetic DNA sequence to direct them to make antibodies that are indistinguishable from human antibodies.

They supply a graphical description of their process:


They describe their process in text form with a series of superlatives, a self-attestation of cutting edge bioscience:

Our operations follow strict adherence to current Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) and use cutting-edge analytical equipment, automated laboratory information management systems and electronic document management systems, all of which are supported by an extensive calibration, validation and preventive maintenance program. Our independent clean-room suites with ultra-modern clean utilities support both single-use and stainless steel cell culture bioreactors and large-scale chromatography systems designed to produce and purify our product candidates.

Folk wisdom has addressed this situation. From the frying pan and into the fire.

If a person doesn't want the vaccine because the vaccine seems new, experimental, and mysterious, there is an alternative now promoted within vaccine-skeptical media. The alternative uses immortalized human fetal tissue, which led to a process to "humanize" mouse tissue, which evolved to using cells from Chinese hamster ovaries, then is filtered and stabilized and ready for infusion. It is newer, more experimental, and more mysterious than the vaccine it replaces.


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