Live Update: Tea Party Convention

4:00.  Spokesman on crony capitalism.    He is telling a story about Bill Clinton soliciting help for the  Clinton Foundation.

3:40.  Spokesman of Open the Books", a website on government spending reports.   Make spending transparent.  Government is a transfer system from taxpayers to special interests.

3:15.  Well I got a slightly better selfie with Ted Cruz and he shook my hand as he made his way through the crowds.   The buzz By the audience aroun me was that Cruz is very sincere, very black and white, and this was a problem.  The people in this audience were pressed but Cruz with an absolute choice: a time for choosing.  The preacher laid it out--heaven or hell.  Choose a committed conservative or choose another disaster.   That is too much for the people who came here supporting other people.   Still, the audience cheered loudly for the angriest things he said.

2:30.  Ted Cruz.  The 4 hostages are coming home from Iran.   Thanks be to God.  The deal that allowed them to come home is a propaganda piece for Iran and Obama.   The deal was a bad one.

Committed Conservative:   Anti Obamacare, anti amnesty, anti gun control.    Big applause for criticizing the Gang of 8 and amnesty.   Anti cronyism. (No bailout for any bank, period.  You cannot support TARP and be Ztea Party.    Oppose ethanol subsidies and sugar subsidies.)  Anti gay marriage.  Does not agree that the Supreme Court decision is the settled law of the land.  I have not surrendered the fight for traditional marriage.  Anti Planned Parenthood.). I reached out to 100,000 pastors.).  "Are you fed up with liberals being appointed to the Supreme Court."    Anti Iran deal and any negotiation with Iran.  "If I am elected president our sailors will never be on their knees".  Prolonged standing ovation.    "Any Iranian tyrant who attempts to capture an American serviceman will face the full fury of the United States of America."

"The stakes have never been higher.  Our country is hanging in the balance."    Don't be fooled by a politician.  Don't listen to words, look to actions.

5 things on the first day:
   Rescind all executive orders by Obama
   Investigate Planned Parenthood
   IRS stop investigating conservative organizations
   End Obamacare
   Move US embassy to Jerusulem

Avoid another John Boehner in the White House.

2:00. Col. Cowen, a Fox military consultant.   We are undergoing constant cyber attack from the Chinese.  We have an existential threat.   Putin is building up his military, including tanks and nuclear submarines.

China is inserting sleeper cells everywhere.  "Every Chinese restaurant in America is a sleeper cell.  If there is a crisis they won't be supporting America, the Chinese in that restaurant will be supporting China."

1:30.  Retired General Harrell --  I am a redneck, he said.  Grew up on a small farm in Tennessee.   Went to ROTC.  Retired as a two star General.   Iraq had serin gas, which is a weapon of mass destruction.    If Bush had NOT gone to war he should be tried for treason.   We were facing a major threat in Iraq.   Paraphrase George Orwell: We sleep snugly in our beds at night because rough men stand ready to do violence on our behalf.

We are a rudderless ship in this country.   We are in trouble.   Leading from behind is following.   We are failing at identifying the enemy.  "If a man with a beard is running at you with a 4 foot knife yelling 'Allah Akbar' you kill him."

You cannot do it all with drones.   You need soldiers on the ground.  I don't think we have a strategy in the Middle East.

"Put a stake in the heart of political correctness."   (Big applause.)



1:10. Senator David Perdue, R Georgia.   Grew up on a farm, "the American story", ended up running Reebok and Dollar Stores.     Washington is broken.  Senators are there too long.  The New Deal, the Great Society, and Dodd Frank and Obamacare are the tragic consequences of big Democratic majorities.   "This president has trampled on our constitution".   This president prematurely brought troops out of Iraq.  We don't have a foreign policy strategy.  "This president has singlehandedly made our military weak".

Social Security and Medicare are in crisis running out of money.  But without cutting current benefits on existing retirees.  We need term limits!  (Big applause).

We are in crisis.   We need prayer, right now.  We need a Republican!    Hillary Rodham Clinton will double down on every progressive policy and we have got to stop her."


12:50.  In the lunch recess I met with two women of about my age, women wearing Cruz bright red tee shirts.   They are here from North Carolina to staff the Cruz booth.   Jean has a retirement job in real estate.   I asked her if she was thrilled at the way real estate values had rebounded under Obama. She admitted they had gone up but took no pleasure in it nor did she credit Obama.  It was Freddy and Fanny "run amok" that caused the crisis she said, neither Bush that caused it nor Obama that solved it.  Like every older person I have encountered in South Carolina Jean and her friend Missy were polite and charming.  And in this case very, very well informed about issues, Jean ticking off ten reasons she liked Cruz, rapidly and extemporaneously.

I asked if it turned out that Trump won the nomination whether she would support him.   Long hesitation.   I consider this important--a warning for Trump.  "Trump is too impulsive and incautious," Jean said.  She expressed concern about Trump as Commander in Chief."  Cruz was the person she thought best for that crucial job.  Jean expressed concern over the general direction of the country and says she thinks things maw we'll be getting worse for America's kids.

12:16:   Nice visit with a reporter from Buzzfeed, a woman in her 30s who is covering the event in the corralled off area in the back reserved for the media.   I count 12 TV cameras.   The Buzzfeed woman didn't want me to know her name or use her photo.   OK with me.   But if she is paying attention to the content of the tone of this event, freedom of speech and the press is a right, up there almost as important as freedom to bear arms.   I can publish what I want, by right, so there!   But why be a jerk?  Hey, if she wants to be invisible, OK.

Noon--  break for lunch.   The crowd of 400-500 is 100% white by my estimation.   White, old, overweight, like me.

11:10.  Mike Huckabee.   I took on the Clinton political machine.   I fought it and beat it.   (Big applause).   Fought the corruption in Arkansas.  People in Washington have forgotten that their job is to serve.   ""I have never been a resident in Washington."   We need dramatic change in the budget.  We need to "completely destroy the tax code.   We need the 'fair tax'"

It is none of the government's business how much money you make.   (Big applause.).  The IRS is a criminal enterprise.

Discussed the spankings he got as a kid.  His father worked two jobs.  He lived in a rental house.   The only soap in their house was "lava".  He said that a man who worked two jobs and earned extra income got taxed at a higher marginal rate than a man who only worked one shift.   Totally unfair to the guy who works hard.   (Big applause)

Opposes TPP.  I don't care about the workers in Indonesia and Vietnam.    I care about the American worker!  (Big applause).  We need the Fair Tax.   It would transform the American economy.   Politicians make big money off of illegal immigration.   They are cheaper because they can be cheated and keep his mouth shut.  Paying people under the table saves money, and Republican politicians are guilty, too.   They get campaign contributions from those people.

No Syrian refugees!  We cannot vet them at all. (Big applause).  If we have to help them make a place for them in Syria, where they want to be.

He said he a concealed carry permittee and would happily defend himself if someone breaks into his house at 2:00 a.m.  

Today we let the prisoners at Gitmo know the direction to Mecca.  Meanwhile we jailed a county clerk who obeyed her conscience.

10:55.  AWR Hawkins, a Britebart contributor and military historian and 2nd amendment advocate.   Men aren't equal.   They are created equal.  Background checks on guns do not work, period.

I asked Huckabee if there should be any limits on the size of the arms a citizen can have.   He said no, no limits, that a person should be able to have the same level of firepower as the people coming to take those weapons.


10:30. Jenny Beth Martin, founder of Tea Party Patriots.   All 4 leading Presidential candidates are running on Tea Party issues, she said.   "Good morning, fellow disrupters!"    Our Constitution allows us to change our government and we can do this right here right now.    President Obama is milking every bit of power right up to the end.  Lament that even when we have big Republican majorities the pressure of Washington leads them astray.

Crony capitalists at the Chamber of Commerce want immigration so it can force more low wage competition on Americans.

End Common Core.  (Big applause)

10:00.  Mark Meadows.   North Carolina Congressman.   Introduced as having been the man who got rid of Boehner being gone.   (Big applause).   He is the man who entered the order to Vacate the Speakership.   Displayed a toy that has a recording with 20 different ways to say one word:  "No."   (Big applause).   There are duds on both sides of the aisle.   And we need a change in leadership in the Senate just like we did in the House.

10:00. KrisAnn Hall.  Constitutional spokesman.  Nothing in the Constitution allows refugees to come to America.  (Big applause.).  Both parties are guilty.   Even the supposedly conservative House has allowed the degradation of the Constitution.   Every Congressman who supports appropriation bills that allow government agencies are acting immorally.

9:25. David Azerrad Heritage Foundation.    Cited Obama, "you cling to your guns and religion" and I say "hell yes".    The Occupy Wall Street movement faded out while Tea Party movement is thriving.  We have had a century of progressive government.  This government has gradually totally changed the Constitution.   The Constitution makes clear that only the Congress has legislative power, but the power has been given totally to the regulators.   States are supposed to be independent, not administrative units of the federal government.     We want limited Constitutional government in America.

Nothing in the Constitution prevents the Congress and president from defying the Supreme Court.   Judicial supremacy is NOT in the Constitution.

Conservatives need to recognize that many people actually like federal spending, including Social Security and Medicare.   The states and corporations actually like big government.  "The rot is not just in Washington.   The problem is bigger because it includes the whole country that enjoys their little benefits.

9:10.  Angry black activist, unhappy with black on black crime.  I know the poverty in the black community.  We are the "get up and go" blacks, tired of the progressive movement.   "We are tired of not being able to practice our religion in public without shame!"   (Big applause).    I like Clarence Thomas, she said.    The biggest poverty is in black majority cities led by Democrats.  "The black community has been screwed by Democrats!"    Planned Parenthood killed 40 million black children!   (Big applause)

The new black attitude.   We left Hillary in 2008 so fast!   Democrats are pushing a socially acceptable Marxism.   We blacks know how how to build.  Yes America has racism but we built America anyway.  I love black America, but Democrats want blacks to be poor.   If blacks want welfare and food stamps, vote Democrats.   If you want to go from welfare to prison, vote Democratic.


8:56.  Head of Breitbart News:   Steve Bannon.   Opposes the Davos crowd that supported Eric Canter.   The organized working people of America threw him out.   "The complete evisceration of the Democratic Party."   "YOU represent the American people.  Yet, you are mocked by 'your betters'."

8:45.  Introduction---   This is a time of great moral decay.  "There is so much deceit in Washington DC.   There is so much deceit in the Establishment in Washington.     All the promises have been broken by our Republican representatives in Washington."


One problem with hating government is that you don't want to organize things that need organization.   The meeting is abuzz with people complaining about how poorly the convention is organized.  No agenda (you have to get it from the NBC affiliate website), no signs to registration meaning everyone goes through security twice, one when you follow the signs to get in and then a secon time when you learn that you need to go to a second place first.

One goes through security.   No concealed weapons allowed.   It is a gun free zone.  

This is South Carolina.  The hospitality food service workers are black.  Every one.   Every cashier at Walmart where I bought apples, nine out of nine cashiers.  Every hotel desk person, five out of five.   The attendees are old, white and stout, a description that includes me, alas.

Double Down, Never Apologize

Ted Cruz in South Carolina Wednesday

Ted Cruz is doing just what I thought he would do.   Read yesterday's post.

Let's review this campaign season, starting of course with Donald Trump.

Donald Trump has used a form of message judo: doubling down.  It works the opposite of the way political gaffs used to work.   A "gaff" is understood to be the accidental telling of a truth, a truth that is embarrassing or inconsistent with the established political line.   It is uttering something politically incorrect.

Trump's brand is not to apologize or "walk back" statements.   It is to accept the premise of the criticism.   If someone says "what you are saying insults Muslims!" Trump does not walk it back saying he meant no insult.  Instead he accepts and accelerates the criticism and uses it to extend and refine his message saying something like, "Well, Muslims who kill Americans deserve to be insulted.  And then killed.   That's just common sense."

It confirms Trump's status as a plain talker, a courageous man, and the opposite of the "feckless weakling" that Republicans now call Obama--at least when they are not calling Obama an overbearing tyrant.  

Ted Cruz knows a good argument when he utters one.   As I said yesterday, he should be perfectly happy with being criticized for condemning "New York values."  He should embrace the criticism and amplify it, not apologize for it.   His voters have an idea of what "New York values" are, and they don't like them:  tolerance for foreigners, Jews, Muslims, homosexuality, "theater people", public transportation, Wall Street, and gun laws.

So he isn't apologizing.   He is doubling down in Iowa:

"I apologize to the millions of New yorkers who've been abandoned for years by liberal politicians.

I apologize to all the hardworking men and women in New York who'd like to have jobs, but Governor Cuomo has banned fracking.

I apologize to all the New Yorkers who are pro-life and pro-marriage and pro-2nd Amendment."

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Cruz is doubling down, Trump like.

New York Values

City Mouse and Country Mouse

The consensus of the news shows reviewing last night's debate was that the big winning moment was the earnest support by Donald Trump for New York, spoken in response to Cruz's comment accusing Trump of having "New York values."

I agree it was a good moment for Trump.  He seemed more sentimental and less boisterous than normal and it presented a softer side of Trump.   Audiences liked it.  Pundits liked it.

But Cruz was not defeated in that exchange.   Indeed, for the purposes of the upcoming votes in Iowa and South Carolina it is possible that Cruz was actually the bigger winner.

Speaking to reporter Maria Bartiromo, Cruz said, "I think most people know exactly what New York values are. You're from New York so you might not."

I think the accusation by Cruz will ring true to many voters, and for many of those voters "New York values" are a bad thing, not a good thing.   What are New York values?  Multicultural, tolerant, worldly, cosmopolitan.  There are Jews in New York.  And homosexuals.  "Theater people." Muslims.  Immigrants. New Yorkers take cabs,  they recycle, they have sidewalks, they are close to high-culture, and they don't wake up in the morning to shoot ducks with shotguns.

There is a difference in America that is as profound as Republican-Democratic and that is urban-rural.  Rural people don't have public water systems and sewerages; they have wells and septic tanks.  Rural people don't have public transportation; they have cars and light trucks.  Rural people in Oregon vote Republican, but they are outvoted in statewide elections by the Democrats in Portland.   In my home of Jackson County the prosperous neighborhoods of Ashland and Medford vote for Democrats; the rural areas are heavily Republican.   The same pattern takes place nationwide.

Is the cultural difference real?   Well, the Democratic-Republican ratio is about 5-1 in Manhattan.

Ted Cruz did not lose in that exchange.   And the longer the controversy lasts, the better for him.  Let the critics prattle on, as far as Cruz is concerned.   Ted Cruz will not be elected because he wins the electoral votes of New York.  He will win despite them.   Ted Cruz is selling the idea of him being a consistent conservative.   Consistent conservatives oppose New York values.

Ted Cruz was staking his ground: he represents the rural and suburban traditional values Republicans.    They resent New York, urban values.   They want their taxes to be used to build to build roads for cars, not mass transit and bike lanes.  When there is a gathering of 400 people they don't want to have to consider than many of them will be Jewish, some non-religious, some Muslim.  They are tired of hearing about "diversity."   They expect people to speak English and resent having to accommodate non English speakers.

Trump came out okay in the debate exchange and if he is the Republican nominee he will be helped by that comment.   But if Cruz does surprisingly well in Iowa and South Carolina and then in the big "SEC" primary it will be in part because Cruz succeeded in tagging Trump with New York values.

Guest Post: Americans want their Entertainment

Peter Sage:   Guest poster Thad Guyer is an attorney specializing in assisting employee whistleblowers.  Litigators like Thad engage in message judo and become expert on what audiences of judges and juries might find persuasive.  He watched the debate and has this comment.


By Thad Guyer


The American Cult of Audience

The Up Close profiling of the audience in South Carolina provides a lot of useful information for understanding how much or how little Republicans may be influenced by the debate. The live debate audience told us little, because each candidate is given a proportion of tickets which go to the candidates’ faithful. Thus, the cheering of Cruz or the booing of Trump doesn’t necessarily represent the Republican mind generally. The Up Close data on the cult of the audience gives a much more reliable and unique perspective. 

I think Trump significantly benefited from the booing. He was unshaken by it, stood firm and unapologetic, thus giving a strong impression of a leader with conviction who is unswayed by who likes him or doesn’t. This is a theme in his rallies, where he says “you may not like how I say things and you may think I am not nice enough—too bad.” He tells his crowds that the establishment candidates don’t say a thing that is not vetted by internal pollsters, speech writers, superpacs and consultants. The Up Close audience profile tells us that Republicans like Trump’s unvarnished style. I was surprised to hear Trump booed on Muslim immigration, and my suspicion that the booers were partisans for Bush or other candidates was somewhat confirmed by the Up Close report on audience response.

My opinion is that Bush and Kashich made the best showings of sophisticated and statesmen-like policy articulation, and they sounded a lot like Hillary or Romney, i.e., experienced leaders who have learned that bold and brash statements make policy consensus and initiatives much more difficult to attain in the real world. They understand that the public good is best served by patient and incremental approaches toward policy goals. I felt guilty that I wanted to hear strong and polarizing rhetoric, the good stuff, the red meat, rather than responsible leadership. But that, ironically, is the legacy of Obama, who waged his 2008 campaign on a cult of leadership and a cult of audience, leaving the stateswoman Hillary in the dust, fueled by massive Trump-like rallies. Star power is what Americans want. We want the Obamas, Sanders, and Trumps, not the Clintons, Bushes and Kasiches. We want hope and hate, inspiration and ridicule, grand promises and partisanship. 

Up Close put it this way: “The activists want a fight, not an agreement.” I offer this friendly amendment: “We the American audience want a fight, not an agreement.” If that is what we want, then I agree with the commentators who now conclude that the Republican primary is Trump’s to lose. We democrats had our glory and bravado of soaring rhetoric with Obama. Republicans now want the same high of empowerment that we had. “Change will not come if wait for some other person or for some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for", Obama said to the roaring audience in Missouri on February 19, 2008. “America doesn’t win anymore. America needs to start winning again", is what thrills the audience at Trump rallies. It’s the same anti-establishment message: the system is broken and only outsiders like us can fix it. American audiences don’t want the words of statesmen, we want the hope and anger of firebrands. 

DEBATE: The Day After

GOP Activists View the Debate

I am in Charleston, South Carolina.

I watched the debate in a movie theater hooked up to the Fox Business Network.   The event was organized by the Charleston GOP, a gathering of local activists that was designed to be covered by CNN.  A CNN reporter and cameraman told the group of 120 that he would be getting comments from us during and after the debate.   It was shown on Anderson Cooper.

You might have caught a glimpse of me: the handsome athlete wearing a navy blue blazer.   What I experienced was a little different from what I would have seen had I been at home, watching this on TV.
There was hooping and hollering--loudest for Trump with about 35% of the crowd.   Loud also for Cruz and Rubio with about 20%.  There were a few courageous cheers for Kasich and Bush.  Zero for Christie.

The people on either side of me whispered something the Republican inner circle consider to be settled: Lindsey Graham is a closeted homosexual.    Neither would support him--ever, for anything--because of this belief.

Based on the cheers and applause from this crowd of Republican activists it is apparently settled that Obama's presidency has been a nonstop disaster and that the economy is substantially worse today than it was when he took office amid the financial crisis.   The "establishment" wing of the Republican party (Bush, Kasich, Ryan, McConnell, Nicky Haley, Lindsey Graham) gets little respect.   The group cheered Cruz's contempt for the NY Times.   There was no cheering or murmurs of assent when Jeb Bush said that respect for Muslims was an essential part of our effort to find allies and coalition partners to fight ISIS.

CNN reporter warns us:  You will be on Anderson Cooper in a minute

This morning Lindsey Graham endorsed Jeb Bush.   Perhaps is that there is a significant body of Republican voters who want a responsible governing party, one that wants accommodation with Hispanics on immigration, compromise with Democrats to pass budgets, a party communicating inclusion.  That is what Graham is attempting to consolidate.    That body of voters was not visible to me last night.   The activists want a fight, not an agreement.

My sense of the debate highlights seem to be the same ones curated by the morning cable TV shows.

    Cruz doing a judo-reverse on Trump, saying that maybe Trump isn't eligible to be president, leaving Trump looking confused and speechless.

    Trump making Cruz look petty when Trump defended and celebrated New York.

    Christie slamming Obama repeatedly, ending with Christie's defense of policemen.

Every candidate is making his or her way to the cable shows.   Carly was asked flat out on MSNBC what she knew that others do not that would cause her to say that Hillary and Bill don't like each other's company.   Wasn't that a mean thing to say, she was asked?    Carly did not back off, asserting that Hillary and Bill didn't have a marriage, just a business arrangement to acquire power, and that if her husband did what Bill did she would leave him.

Republicans may hope to elevate the marriage of Bill and Hillary to "a matter of controversy" and subject of candidate and pundit comment and speculation among supporters, critics, marriage experts, family law attorneys, feminists, clergy, thinking that simply having the subject is on the table will create a feeling of weary exhaustion in the public--well, it might work.    I don't care about Carly and her husband and I don't want to hear about it.   And I really, really don't want to hear about Bill and Hillary.

Debate Venue

I am in a movie theater watching a giant screen of the debate.   And doing it among about 200 guests of the South Carolina GOP.   I am a courteous guest and not eating any of the host-supplied chicken wings and pizza.

CNN reporters and cameras are here, quizzing the crowd.    The biggest cheers were for Trump.   Lesser cheers were for Cruz and Carson and Rubio.  

Lots of cheers for the 2nd Amendment.  Lots of boos for Obama and Hillary.

More later.   I am in mid-theater.    At the end of the evening I hope the CNN reporter gives me a chance to comment.

Santorum. Really?

Santorum

Why bother talking about Santorum at all?

He is deep into a campaign death spiral and if he is so deluded to think he can get the nomination then he is too crazy to serve.    The people behind me in the sparse room, apparently associated with the sponsoring organization, were quietly making phone calls to friends there on the Citadel College campus in the minutes before the start time asking them please, please to show up, that the room needs some people, please.

There may have been an audience of 20, not counting staff, but including people cajoled into showing up.

But Santorum did have something to say I think needs being repeated here.

He said the political focus is on the immigrants and what it means to them.  The focus should be on Americans, and the effect it has on them, and its effect is to lower wages.   He is a populist, open in saying he is targeting the forgotten working men and women of America.m Globalization has put American workers into competition with any foreign worker whose product can be put onto a container ship or whose data can be put onto the internet.  We need to protect American workers from imported competition, he says.   "Supply and demand still work."

Santorum audience

He said that the 6 million people who have overstayed their visa stays should be given 3 months to leave. If they leave in 3 months, they retain the general good graces of the USA. "No harm no foul."  If they don't leave in 3 months we deport them and never let them back in.   He said he expected most to leave, disappointed but not criminalized.

The other 6 million people--those who sneaked in--must leave as well, and they will be people who will bring knowledge of democracy and American practices and perhaps speaking English and they will be a good influence on their countries of birth.  These people are not villains; they are ambassadors of Americanism, good for the countries they return to.

What is curious about this proposal was that the argument is economic rather than civilizational.   He didn't stigmatize undocumented people as "other" or frightening or unworthy.  Rather they were competition to the people who must be American policymakers' first concern: Americans.

This policy would have the same effect as what Trump is saying and what stirs up Republican crowds, but it says it with the same tone as Hillary or Bernie might use, an odd respect for the people he is deporting.   And we are deporting them not because they are bad or lazy but because they are hardworking and good competition for Americans.   And indeed his policy would likely tend to raise the employability of young and low skilled American workers.  It would likely raise the effective minimum wage, something Democrats support.

He said not a single word about whether it is practical to deport 6 million people or about its effects on families of mixed citizenship, which I suspect would be total chaos.  Nor did he address the effect of this shift in the labor markets on employers.   So it is an incomplete proposal, addressing the goal, not the difficulty of implementation, just like the other candidates.

Is anyone in the Republican electorate listening?   Apparently no.  Santorum is making an economic argument without stigmatizing the excluded, and it isn't resonating