Easy Sunday: Explaining the Oregon Senate District Three campaign.

The simple message:

"Brad Hicks is Donald Trump." 

"Denise Krause is Tina Kotek."

I overthink political messaging in this blog. I don't think political messages are devilishly complex and thought out. I think political brands are a matter of unconscious impression. It's is the unconsidered things that need consideration.

Someone is the good guy; someone the bad guy. We make these decisions mostly based on gut feelings of first impression and unconscious preferences. Certain things are turnoffs. Someone is "too Portland." Or "too corporate." Or "too woke." Or "too MAGA." Negative ads probe those potential turnoffs to move our votes. 

There is no dispositive proof that Hicks really is a mini-Trump, but he did lead a relentlessly partisan Chamber of Commerce with its own PAC to support Republicans, only Republicans. There is no dispositive proof that Krause would be a Democratic rubber-stamp for Kotek, but her website's policy proposals seem conventionally Democratic in every respect. 

It is smart for Hicks to link Krase to Kotek. Kotek is relatively weak in this senate district, and likely a drag on Krause. Kotek ran behind the Democratic winner, Jeff Golden, when he won in 2022. In the 2022 matchup, between Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan, Kotek won by only 2.6 percent: 47.3 to 44.7 among voters in that district. Kamala Harris, a relatively weak candidate, defeated Trump 54.3 to 42.3 percent, a 12.1 percent margin in 2024. The presidential race result is why I call this a light-blue district in its general political lean. 

Likewise, it is smart for Krause to tell people that Hicks is a loyal Republican and link him to Trump, since Trump does less well than baseline Republicans in this district. I presume some marginal voters are turned off by Trump, especially this year. Trump has strong opinions on Oregon issues, and Trump conspicuously pressures state officeholders to follow his demands. All state-level Republicans have a trustworthiness problem when they seek votes from people outside the Trump base. We heard Trump pressure Brad Raffensperger, a Georgia state election official, "I just want to find 11,170 votes." It could be Hicks getting that call. Hicks was a loyal Republican for two decades at the Chamber. He is getting a million dollars in GOP money for his campaign. 

As the campaign gets down to final arguments I expect them to become simpler and more direct because it is a shorthand way to brand the candidates alongside a weak party leader. Both Tina Kotek and Donald Trump are measurably weak candidates in this district.

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