Field Report: Denise Krause reports a lead in Oregon Senate District Three campaign

Denise Krause released a poll showing she  leads her Republican opponent, Brad Hicks.

Krause leads Hicks 50 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

The poll showed she had better name recognition than Hicks, with over two-thirds of voters recognizing her name compared to 50 percent recognizing Hicks's. 

The poll showed that 94 percent of self-identified Democrats support her. She led Hicks with independent voters, 50 percent to 32 percent.

It is a small poll and an early snapshot, but it suggests a good starting point for her general election campaign, so it made sense for Krause to release the results. She is setting the frame for voters that she is a good fit for the district and the natural, default choice in this light-blue district. She belongs. She isn't the interloper. She can be displaced, of course, but she is communicating that she represents a graceful handoff of the office from Democratic incumbent Jeff Golden. 

The poll was conducted by GBAO Strategies, a K Street, Washington, D.C., polling firm. They surveyed 400 district voters from June 29 - July 1. The margin of error is 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. It was funded by SEIU, a public employee union.

Krause general election kick-off event

Krause gained name recognition and grassroots support by spearheading initiatives to increase the number of county commissioners from three to five, to make them nonpartisan, and to cut their pay in half from the current $150,000-a-year range. The initiative petitions got the 10,000-plus signatures quickly, but two of the three initiatives lost due in part to well-funded opposition from the incumbent Republican commissioners and their Republican donors. The commissioner-pay-cut initiative easily passed, but did not go into effect because the number of commissioners was not increased.

Krause showed unusual ability to gain grass roots support and to recruit and motivate volunteers. In the primary election that Krause won, three other candidates had structural advantages over her. Kevin Stine was an 11-year Medford City Council member; Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba received over $150,000 from the Oregon Nurses Association; and Tonia Moro had the public endorsement of Jeff Golden. Krause won anyway. 

Democrats hold a six-point registration advantage in Senate district three, and Golden held the seat for two election cycles. Kamala Harris won the district in 2024 by over 12 points. Donald Trump has become significantly less popular in the 20 months since the November 2024 election, which is a drag on Republican candidates down-ballot, and should further help Krause. Trump's centrality to the Republican brand creates a dilemma for Republican candidates, including Hicks and Oregon gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan. Republican candidates who stray from Trump are rejected soundly by fellow Republicans, but a candidate who is closely aligned with Trump motivates Democrats and tilts non-aligned voters away. Voters know the score: To be a Republican in good standing, one must be on Trump's team. That will be a drag for Hicks.

Krause won the Democratic primary in a five-person race, winning a plurality with 35 percent of the vote. Some of the supporters of Tonia Moro, who came in second in the primary election, have resisted supporting Krause, and have urged Democrats to cast a vote for a spoiler candidate. On Monday evening local Democrats have scheduled a Zoom meeting to endorse candidates. Krause said she hopes to consolidate her support by being the sole endorsed candidate of local Democrats.

Local voters are accustomed to Republican candidates spending stupendous amounts of money in this small media market. Four years ago, the Republican candidate spent over $1.1 million in ads in his losing campaign against Golden. Republicans may spend more this year. The PAC funded with a $3,000,000 donation by Phil Knight donated $180,000 to Hicks. I will have a closer examination of candidate donations in a future post, but the size of the money being collected by Oregon PACs to elect Republicans is indicated by the fact that Knight's PAC to elect Republican state legislators shows monthly income from interest alone on yet-unallocated money of $10,689 in May, and $11,025 in June. Hicks will be very, very well funded. 

It is not clear to me that spending that money for Hicks and against Krause sends any message other than the fact that the Republican establishment of businesses and MAGA Trump-supporters prefer the Republican candidate, and that they are throwing their money-weight around, making their candidate a pawn of their policy goals. I consider that a losing message, so the more they spend, the better for Krause. However, I acknowledge that this is a minority opinion. In politics, as in the number of divisions in an army in combat, the general consensus is that more is better.

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