Democratic Candidates in Senate District 3

Oregon Senate District 3

Five Democratic candidates

A snapshot of where they get their campaign money

Democrat: 31,748. Republican 25,188. Non-affiliated: 36,708

There aren't any polls. How do you know who is ahead? You don't. 

But you can look for bits of evidence to see who has an active campaign and who is successful in lining up support. Presumably a campaign that gets endorsement and financial help correlates with eventual votes. Campaign contributions are an objective measure within a sea of guesswork. Money and endorsements are useful information for voters. Maybe those nodes of support align with a voter's own interests.

My information comes from the Oregon Secretary of State Orestar system as of April 15.  Orestar.

Krause

Denise Krause has raised the most money, with just over $40,000 reported. She has about 75 different entries, many of which are the bundles of contributions of $100 or less. She told me she had 207 different contributors. Krause was the chief organizer of the campaign to update the Jackson County Home Rule Charter with an effort to make commissioners nonpartisan, increase their number from three to five, and to force a reduction of their salaries, now over $150,000/year. It was, from my observation, the best grass roots campaign in the 45 years I have been observing local campaigns. She built a network. So it is no surprise to me that she raised money in a grassroots manner, with a large group of contributions from people whose names I recognize from involvement in that campaign and her two previous campaigns for county commissioner. Former county commissioner David Gilmour donated $750. She lists endorsements from the the SEIU, a public employee union; Nurses & Frieds for Single Payer; a Teamsters, Ironworkers, and Carpenters union; and from a Pro-Animal Oregon, an animal protection organization.

Stine

Kevin Stine has been a Medford city council member for over 11 years. His support appears to me to cluster around people who have seen him over the years and respected his council service. He is a teacher, a Navy veteran from tours as a submariner, and a runner. He is 40 now and has developed a network of people who have seen his civic engagement. He was one of the leaders in rounding up community support for the Rogue X project. He has run for other offices, including challenging U.S. Senator Ron Wyden six years ago and Stine got over 75,000 votes statewide. The Medford city council is an nonpartisan office, but Stine is acknowledged to be a Democrat with ambition for higher office, which gets him support from Democrats interested in the next generation of candidates. It also gets him consistent opposition from the local Republican establishment that wants to nip his ambitions in the bud. Former Medford mayor Al Densmore, who has a reputation for nonpartisan centrism, contributed $1,000. In the photo above, taken this week, Stine was in his role announcing that the Medford Urban Renewal granted $1.5 million to the Children's Museum. Stine has never been a prodigious fundraiser in prior campaigns; he has 26 entries and has raised about $7,000.

Moro

Tonia Moro entered the race just before filing deadline, right after the incumbent, Democrat Jeff Golden, withdrew. She is an attorney and has represented environmental causes. She was a candidate for this office in a special election to fill the vacancy after the death of Senator Alan Bates. She lost in a close race to Republican Alan DeBoer, the former mayor of Ashland. The most prominent of her contributions is a $5,000 one from Golden's campaign. She has 34 entries and has $14,000 in contributions showing on Orestar's records. She presents herself as a "champion" on the environment, which Jeff Golden told me was a factor in his endorsement. I wrote yesterday that Democrats may win primary election support -- Democrats who vote in primary elections prioritize the climate issue -- but lose in general elections by making a villain out of companies that produce the gasoline that voters need to buy. The photo above is from Moro's webpage. (She may not read this blog, or if she does, doesn't agree with yesterday's post where I warn that the voters that Democrats need to win elections are people who dislike $5 gasoline and $6 diesel. They want abundant, affordable energy. I am already getting pushback from Democrats who say I am wrong. That's OK. I don't expect everyone to agree with everything I write.) Her webpage lists endorsements from the Oregon League of Conservation Voters, Nurses & Friends for Single Payer, the Sierra Club, the Communications Workers of America, and a Jane Fonda PAC.

Mendoza-Ruvalcaba

Cristian Mendoza-Ruvalcaba is a highly credentialed nurse practitioner and educator. His donations reveal his substantial connection to the nursing profession and lobby. He received a $10,000 contribution and endorsement from the Oregon Nurses Association. He also received contributions from the campaigns of incumbent Democratic State Representatives Travis Nelson and Rob Nosse, and State Senator Winsvey Campos, all of whom work in health care. Yola's Bakery on South Central Avenue in Medford made a $2,000 contribution, but other than that I don't yet see evidence of substantial local grassroots financial support, but this may be coming. He is a new face in local politics and he is actively making fundraising calls to introduce himself. I see 36 total entries in his contribution list and a total raised of about $23,000, which includes that $10,000 from the nurses association.

Crary

Jim Crary is an experienced campaigner, having run for Congress in past years -- yet another Democrat who confronted the almost two-to-one Republican margin in our congressional district. This campaign has an interesting but limited focus, an idea that Oregon needs to increase our current taxes on alcohol -- the lowest in the nation -- and use that revenue to fund government services, especially including those associated with alcohol problems. Crary's contributions are very limited, coming from only two people. He has raised $15,600, and $15,000 of it comes from one person, a neighbor who lives up the same rural highway, Oregon Route 66, that Crary lives on. I make an inference about Crary's campaign: Crary is more interested in having a forum for advocating a message than he is about making a serious effort to gain grassroots support that results in winning the election.

Disclosure:  When Jeff Golden was seeking re-election, he requested a campaign contribution from me. I donated $2,000. I generally agree with Jeff, although he is probably more reliably liberal-progressive-environmental doctrinaire than I am. Local readers will understand if I say that he is more "Ashland Democrat;" I am more "Medford Democrat." He was a college classmate. I have been donating money to Jeff for political and public TV and public radio causes for 40 years. When Jeff withdrew from the race, he asked if I wanted my contribution returned. I said he should keep it and use it as he thought best. Perhaps my $2,000 was packaged within the money he gave to Moro. That is OK, although Moro would not have been my first choice of candidate.

I have been watching Kevin Stine's campaigns for 12 years. I thought it was unfair for the local Chamber of Commerce Republicans to try keep Kevin off the nonpartisan Medford city council just because he was a Democrat, so I have been a consistent donor to Kevin's campaigns for a decade. I gave Kevin $2,000 last month. 

Denise Krause does what skilled grassroots candidates do: She calls people who are aligned with her politically and who have reason to admire her energy and good sense. She solicited a donation. That is what good candidates and effective officeholders do: They reach out and present their cases. I donated $2,000 to her.

What about Cristian Mendoza-Ruvalcaba and Jim Crary? If either of them win the primary, and if they call me and ask, then I will probably contribute to them, too, but I haven't yet.  

Forty-six years ago I was young, poor, and I was trying to fund my campaigns for county commissioner. I thought to myself that what Medford badly needed were some politically reasonable Democratic businessmen-types, practical non-ideological people with a mix of college-town liberal politics but also some capitalist-businessman-rural-farmer instincts. Such a person might have the money to donate to campaigns like mine, and ideally would do so readily.  He would just write the check. Time has passed, and my situation changed. Now I try to be that person I sorely needed back in 1980.

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