"Texas tough" or "Turn Texas Blue?"
Texas Democrats vote today.
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| Crockett |
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| Talarico |
Politics is war continued by other means. Carl von Clausewitz had it backwards.
The question is how one fights the war.
There isn't a lot of difference in the political positions of the two candidates for the U.S. senate for Texas. Jasmine Crockett isn't a member of The Squad, although her style makes it appear that she is. Talarico isn't particularly moderate or centrist, although he has a "can't we come together" tone that comes across as middle of the road.
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| Crockett: Media star and a tiger in Congressional hearings. |
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| "Raping children, right or wrong?" |
Democrats are making a choice about style: Crockett's in-your-face or Talarico's Mr. Nice Guy. Crockett descries herself as "tough," and willing to call out injustice. She communicates "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore." She seems fearless and ready to take on Trump, MAGA, and the Texas GOP machine. Talarico isn't conceding the ground. People with knowledge of Christianity understand the reference in Talarico's message of flipping the tables. Jesus wasn't passive in the face of abusive commerce in front of the temple.
It is possible that a majority of Democrats prefer Crockett and her style, and in a blue state they would vote for her. Texas is a red state and the potential of electing a Democrat is central to Talarico's message. Some Democrats are likely making a strategic decision to nominate the more electable candidate, presuming that is Talarico. There is a school of thought that Crockett is more electable. She gets the "mad as hell" vote, and it is bipartisan. Trump proved that. Talarico may not be able to persuade people that he is a change agent.
Predictions markets favor Talarico. The consensus betting is for Talarico to win with a margin of 3 to 15 percent, with a small midpoint bulge expecting a 6 to 12 percent margin. Here is how Kalshi.com lays out the betting opportunities:
Few people are betting on Crockett to win, but the payoff would be high if she did. Since the betting was structured around vote margin, not just a flat win-lose, every "Yes, Tararico wins" bet is a longshot because the bettor has to predict his margin. Polls have been wildly inconsistent, some showing Crockett winning, but the prediction markets reflect the consensus of people putting money on the line. Bettors think that Talarico will win.
The win, if it happens, will launch Talarico firmly onto the national stage representing a Christian-progressive-economic populism vibe. That puts him in a space that is more overtly traditional and less technocratic than Pete Buttigieg; a space "Whiter" than Senator Raphael Warnock; and a space unburdened by the California vibe of Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris.
Talarico is a fresh face. Possibly the public will not want that fresh face to look like a choir boy, because the world is too vicious for choir boys. Still, Talarico will flesh out a political brand and he pushes "reset" on the Democratic brand. Even though he is thoroughly "White" in his brand, he downplays identity calling it an economic battle between the billionaires and the average American, and that the competition between ethnic and gender identities is a phony war to distract Americans from the fact that their pockets are being picked. Talarico, like Jesus, talks about economic justice.
Talarico has a lane and a story to tell. It will be disruptive to a core support group for Trump and the GOP: self-identified Christians. Trump is the champion of Christians, the one who fights in a decidedly un-Christian way on behalf of the Christian brand. Talarico conspicuously talks the language of Jesus, doing so from a position of apparent sincerity and belief, not opportunism.
Americans will go to bed tonight having learned which direction Texas Democrats signal they want the party to turn.
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8 comments:
Hmmmm...smooth talking white christian male vs outspoken black woman...in Texas.
If you look closely she is the more moderate candidate, at least based on his record so far. He could be a Jimmy Carter or John Fetterman...feelin' lucky?
So now elections are decided by online gambling? I'm sure that's gonna end well.
I get a lot of Talarico videos on Tik Tok and am very impressed with him. Admittedly I am a Christian and really like how he uses his Christian base to resist racism, promote loving one another, and helping people in need. He presents as genuine and really wouldn’t be surprised if he wins Texas, he will be our president in 3 years. Maybe be our president even if he loses Texas. He kind of reminds me of Bill Clinton.
I always thought politics would be reduced to the moral equivalent of playing the ponies.
Given the way vote counting has been screwed up by things like allowing mail-in ballots that were postmarked on election day, but not received until days later, what makes you think we will know the outcome tonight?
Should he prevail in the Democratic primary, I look forward to James Talarico explaining to all Texas Christians, especially Latinos, his reported claims that "God is Nonbinary", and that God first needed then obtained Mary's consent before her pregnancy with Jesus, hence providing Biblical support for the right to abortion.
Crockett's authenticity pales upon close inspection too, it appears, from private elementary and high schools then graduate schools, and early interviews as a House candidate, suddenly morphing into the slangy, abrasive street patter she now affects That said, it's not as if Cornyn himself inspires, much less the slimy Ken Paxton.
Paxton agreed to a plea deal to avoid trial for his felony fraud indictments. He should be a shoo-in for today's GOP.
What's so "screwed up" about waiting for all the ballots to be counted?
State Rep. James Talarico Topples Rep. Jasmine Crockett in Texas Democrat Senate Primary
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