Too Trump-y and out of touch with his District, but re-elected anyway.
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| Oregon Second District U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz |
Most voters say they hate the polarization.
Most voters say they want to elect moderates. But they don't.
They nominate an extremist from their favored party.
Georgetown University political scientist Michael Bailey described it this way:
Polarization is more likely when control of the legislature is closely contested and the policy impact of a single legislator is modest because party nominators know that the district median will prefer electing an extremist from a favored party than a moderate from a disfavored party.
For example, a moderately conservative district median voter will prefer the policy outcomes under Republican control, even if their individual legislator is very conservative, over the policy outcomes under Democratic control, with a moderate Democrat representing their district.
Oregon Second District U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz is a good example of what Professor Bailey described. He is far more conservative and Trump-compliant than the median voter in the district, but he has been re-elected anyway. Democratic candidates see the disconnect with the median voter and it gives them hope. After all, Bentz lets Trump impose district-damaging tariffs that hurt Oregon's grain and wine industries. He voted to make health insurance unaffordable under the ACA exchanges, a program in widespread use in this district. He tolerates Trump's brutal ICE policing, which damages the district's farmers. He consents to Trump trying to stop Oregon's popular vote-by-mail system. Bentz is a classic yes-man enabler of Trump. Bentz is far more Trump-devoted than the median district voter.
The Democratic opportunity is a mirage most years. A majority of the voters in the district are Republican and, as Bailey wrote, Republicans would rather have a too-conservative, too-Trump-y Republican than a Democrat.
Each Democratic candidate hoping to replace Bentz asserts moderation, reasonableness, and fit with the district. Each will listen. Each is in touch. Each is the median voter.
-- Patty Snow introduces herself by saying she is from the small, rural Idaho town of Burley, and was brought up by "generational Republicans who taught me the importance of fiscal responsibility."
-- Rebecca Mueller's presentation at the event at my house last weekend began by describing her reasonable sensitivity to divergent points of view.
-- Chris Beck headlines "Coming of age east of the Cascades" and his family's deep roots in the district.
-- Dawn Rasmussen headlines "People first, politics last," and down-to-earth leadership that listens to the district.
-- Mary Doyle headlines "Leadership that listens" saying she is "grounded, accessable, and accountable."
-- Peter Quince's opening page has four words, "Because your voice matters."
They all listen, listen, listen.
My own sense is that the path to electing a Democrat does not come from a Democrat's assurances of moderation, even if that is absolutely true and even if the candidate is closer to the median voter than is Bentz. Republicans vote for Republicans. A very electable, credible candidate, Joe Yetter, a retired military physician, proved that by losing with the usual 60-40 margin.
A different approach might be to attempt to exploit the crack within the GOP, which has a regular wing and a MAGA wing. The MAGA wing is 100 percent Trump-y. They believe Trump, whatever he says. They love his lies and his grift. They are in the cult. But there is another group of Republicans who are more or less disgusted with Trump, but tolerate him because he is their team captain. They think he has done some things right, e.g., reduced illegal immigration, got Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence, and reversed the excessive "woke" symbolism of the left including pronoun announcements, use of "Latinx," identity-based hiring quotas, and trans inclusion in women's spaces. They like all that but they don't like Trump. They see the lies, grift, crassness, and unapologetic cronyism.
By this fall's election, events might well have spun further out of control based on some combination of war in Iran, gasoline prices, stagflation, unemployment, troop deaths, trade chaos, and a bad stock market. Stuff happens, and Trump is accident-prone.
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| 1968 |
Bentz's current political strength is his fawning obedience to Trump. That protects his right flank. That would also be his weakness if the moment is right, and bad moments happen every decade. Trump is Bentz's life preserver until he is Bentz's anchor.
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3 comments:
What you say is interesting. For me, it's more interesting when applied to the District 3 state senate race. Will a Democrat have a better chance against Brad Hicks if she seems moderate or if she sticks to the Democratic hard line? Will Brad Hicks come across as a moderate, or a more rightwing Republican? As for Cliff Bentz, it's not worth considering that he might lose.
A lot of recent votes have gone democrat, I think it’s 30 democrats versus 0 republican. The moderate voters even republican have been voting democrat, hence Mar Logo going democrat. I suspect life in the US is going to be harder, less free and at some point people will rebel against the status quo. In the meantime I will be attending the No Kings March tomorrow.
Both Kevin Stine and Tanya Moro are hard left, and unfortunately Denise Krause also leans that way. I have urged Denise to moderate her message so that she has a better chance to win. You obviously don't know anything about Brad Hicks. Brad Hicks has spent his entire career working as a lobbyist. Brad Hicks is actually a liberal, but since he has to represent the Chamber of Commerce, then he has to pretend to be a Republican. Brad Hicks couldn't be a right-wing conservative if his life depended on it. Brad Hicks is running to represent the Chamber of Commerce good old boys, and not the average citizen. He doesn't care about you. Brad Hicks is a big tax and spender.
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