I am betting on Trump being true to form: selfish, petulant, on the attack, partisan, and nasty.
He is going to criticize the Supreme Court justices who voted to disallow his tariffs.
That would be a political mistake.
The State of the Union speech gets enormous staff input. Other minds have gamed this out with him. He will have considered the pros and cons of laying into the Supreme Court, so this will be a calculated decision. It is possible someone will tell Trump to surprise people. Cajole the Supreme Court and be nice. That would generate a big headline: Trump accepts Supreme Court decision on tariffs. It would be news.
I think Trump will go the other way. He will be nasty. He is on a roll:
-- He has said, "They're just being fools and lapdogs for the RINOs and the radical left Democrats."
-- He has said, "It's my opinion that the court has been swayed by foreign interests."
-- He has said they are "an embarrassment to their families, to one another."
Trump's brand is defiance: You can't tell me what I can't do. He immediately announced a work-around after being denied tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by announcing a 10-percent -- no, make that 15-percent -- tariff under color of a different law. So there!
Trump knows the Supreme Court holds weak cards. He sees that they are treading softly, trying not to provoke him. He knows he is being "handled" because they cannot risk his wrath. He has the power. He can destroy the courts. He can make the judicial branch merely advisory, as concerns presidential power.
That will be Trump's calculation: He is strong and the Supreme Court's only weapon is a reputation for fairness, and events have largely squandered that. The Republican senate majority leader gave the game away when he stalled seating Obama appointee Merrick Garland and then rushed through the seating of Amy Coney Barrett. It is power politics. It is a Republican Supreme Court.
The victory exacerbates a trend:
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| Pew poll, September 2025 |

Republican support for the Supreme Court is where the peril lies for Trump. A majority of Republicans think the Court is fair and reasonable with 63 percent calling it "middle of the road." A majority of Americans as a whole, and a large majority of Republicans (71 percent), think the Supreme Court has "the right amount of power."
It is a strange situation. The public is skeptical of the Supreme Court's fairness and objectivity, but they still want it to have power. Even if the refs are biased, the game is still better if there are refs on the field. There is a lesson there for Trump.There is an idea rising in the political atmosphere that Trump is unconstrained, careless, and unreliable, now more than ever. He is unpredictable. The 10-percent, then 15-percent, tariff in back-to-back days is an example. What the heck is he doing? So far he has gotten away with the crony grift -- apparently people don't mind him enriching himself -- but the Epstein coverup looks worse than merely suspicious. Trump isn't "totally exonerated." Other countries are cleaning house, but the USA keeps protecting its elites, including Trump. Everything about Trump is getting louder, crazier, worse.
People are noticing:
I don't think there is anyone on Trump's team telling him to chill a little. To show some respect for others. To be a good sport. Trump's mistakes are ones of excess.Trump is widening his legitimacy gap. A six-three court is not validation enough for Trump, giving him a platform from which to expand his power while people think he is playing by democratic rules. He could stay within their blessing, but he wants more. Trump is making the case that something or someone needs to put the brakes on Trump.
That is what midterm elections are for.
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8 comments:
I'm proud of our reps, with one disgraceful exception, who are boycotting the appearance and who understand the fight they are in. We are past the point of "respect for the office".
Bingo card time?!
Speaking of being--or not being--a good sport, I expect some snarky gloating about the U.S. Olympic hockey teams' gold medal victories over the Canadians. Maybe some Alberta trolling tossed in.
He is predictably compelled to double down on previous boasts, however specious. So I predict a tedious reprise of "in 2024 we were dead, but now we're the hottest country in the world".
He will vaunt about Maduro, now coupled with the Mexican cartel kingpin, and the swaggering military buildup off Iran (even though their nuke program was "obliterated", remember?).
The over/under on standing ovations? I'll say 29.
Nobody has shown more disrespect for the office of president than Trump.
Thank you for watching as I sure won’t be.
Trump is a showman. Here’s a way he could start the speech that would really pop:
“On my order, the attack on Iran has begun. …”
If he pisses off the SC tonight, they might reverse their decision that he has immunity for everything he does while in office. That might slow him down.
I look forward to hearing him tonight bragging about all the great things he has done. A giant pat on the back. He did this, he did that. Now everything is great, unlike when Biden was president. Good showmanship. The Republican side will cheer, the Democrats will sit on their hands. Then we get all the fact checking and find he lied about everything. So, what's new?
That's right: Nothing like a little "shock and awe" to distract the masses. Turning Iraq into a "beacon of democracy" was a piece of cake. Iran would only be a bit harder. We could bring back the Shah. Grateful Iranians would throw flowers at our feet. Trump and Epstein's pursuit of little girls would fade into the background.
I hope this isn't the beginning for it may be the end of Congress. (Only Congress can declare war!)
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