Foreign student TACO

TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.

Trump's policy ending visas for foreign students created havoc, even in public universities in red states. So Trump changed positions. 

It was politically smart.  

Democrats who hope that Trump will self-destruct under the weight of the worst of his policy decisions will be disappointed. Trump does crazy, illegal, undemocratic, cruel things. Then, when there is blowback, he retreats. 

Trump is a narcissist. He doesn't want to be honorable. He wants to be popular. That is a plus in politics.

As recently as June 4, Rupert Murdoch's populist New York Post was celebrating Trump's position limiting foreign enrollment in American universities. 

Trump's original position on foreign students in American universities was populist "America First" red meat for the MAGA base. He said American universities should be reserved for Americans. He described foreign students in the same way he framed foreign competition in exportable goods. Why give them any benefits? He added xenophobia and fear of the "other." Those Chinese students might be spies, the students from s---hole countries degrade our campuses, and students from Muslim countries might bring hostile ideas. And there was a nice swipe at Harvard the archetype snotty elite university. Harvard howled that his visa ban was unfair, disruptive, illegal, and that it damaged the university's higher education mission. Good. The more Harvard complained, the more it pleased the MAGA base.

Visas are a matter of executive department discretion. Trump could flex muscle here with minimum interference from Congress or the courts. Trump acted boldly. The MAGA base likes seeing decisive action, that Trump can-do, "damn the torpedoes" willingness to be cruel if necessary to achieve victory for his team. American universities for Americans! 

It was good politics, until reality intervened.

Trump had the "America First" advantage backwards. American education is an export industry. Foreign students nearly always pay full-freight tuition and thereby subsidize American students. Wealthy Harvard's mission is inconvenienced, but public universities, including ones in red states, are badly damaged by that loss of full tuition students. Trump heard from them.

His new policy allowing foreign students to study here reopens the financial lifeline for universities. Foreign students will get vetted, one by one. They will need to unlock their social media accounts so that State Department employees can review them for signs of "anti-American" sentiment. This will be a subjective process. It is a win for Trump. Now he looks "reasonable."  This enhances Trump's power over university culture. The vetting sends a chilling-effect message to students. Your politics will be reviewed. Not only is Big Brother watching you, he is looking back. What incautious thing did you say, and how might it be interpreted years later by future presidents? Be very careful.

The politics of this new policy will be much better for Trump. He can argue that we don't want students here who hate America. Who can disagree with that? 

Insofar at the Trump's administration's real goal is to reduce foreign influences on our campuses, the vetting process gives Trump a powerful, if secretive, tool to reward friends and punish enemies. The vetting process will take time and staff, even as DOGE reduced employee headcount. There will be waiting lists and logjams. If California Governor Gavin Newsom wants the vetting process to proceed fast enough that students can enroll at Berkeley, maybe he had better watch his tongue.

Democrats are wise to define Trump's inconsistency as Trump chickening out. TACO. After all, Trump got the political benefit of framing his original position as Mr. Strong Man protecting America; he can endure the flip side by being described as the weak guy who caved because he couldn't stick with his crazy policies. 

But there is a lesson here for Democrats. Trump is erratic and dishonest and a danger to democracy, but there is a north star guiding his behavior. He is a narcissist. He wants to be admired. The limit on Trump's behavior will not be the law or religion or the Constitution. The limit on Trump is that he will stop doing things if they become unpopular, especially in red states.

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