Guest Post: Advice for Oregon's governor.

What's Oregon to do?

Rebate tax money to Oregonians, via the wildly popular "kicker?"

Or set money aside as a contingency to fight forest fires?

KGW

There are so many unknowns facing Oregon's governor and legislature. Will Oregon and the country face a recession, thus reducing future income tax receipts? Will the federal government pay for forest fire suppression at the same level as in the past? Will there be new, hotter, bigger, and more expensive forest fires this summer and next?

And then the political question: Will Oregonians tolerate not getting all their potential income tax rebate, even if the money they don't get is diverted to the good and necessary cause of putting out fires?

Tam Moore is a lifelong journalist, who worked in television in his early days and then in print, writing for the Capital Press, a regional newspaper focusing on the agricultural industry. In the mid-1970’s, Moore served a term as a Republican Jackson county commissioner in southern Oregon. He was elected in 1974, when Oregon Republicans were progressive on civil rights, when there were pro-choice Republicans elected locally and statewide, and when Republicans supported cleaning up the environment.

Tam Moore

Guest Post by Tam Moore

Oregon’s governor came to our town this week, fretting about the uncertainty we face with a wildfire season almost upon us and our major partner in wildfire suppression, the federal government in turmoil as the new administration and a troubled, factionalized Congress send mixed messages -- none reassuring to recipients of federal assistance.

Gov. Tina Kotek, near Ashland, Oregon

On top of that, here in Oregon the state’s economist gave the Legislature the final revenue estimate for the biennial budget that will take effect on July 1. That estimate has the potential to be wrong, big time. Oregon’s largest single source of state-generated revenue is an income tax. Uncertain economic signals make predicting income tax revenue problematic for two years down the road.

So, If I were governor, when I got back to the Capitol in Salem, and my political party controlled the Legislature -- which it does -- I would ask the Joint Ways and Means Committee to build a huge contingency fund into the budget they are preparing, with authority given the Legislative Emergency Board to dip into the fund as these uncertain times unfold.

To put real money in that contingency fund, I would be asking Legislative leaders to hold a vote on a one-time override of Oregon’s tax “kicker.” The Constitution says it will take a two-thirds majority in both houses to make it legal. The state economist predicts that a whopping $1.7 billion will be in that kicker pot when it would otherwise be returned to taxpayers.

The kicker was birthed by tax foes as a 1979 law. The kicker requires that any time biennial receipts exceed the budget estimate by two percent, the difference is refunded to taxpayers. Voters liked it so well that in 2000 they made it section 14 of Article IX of the state Constitution.

This may sound counterintuitive to fiscal conservatives. But it’s a way to ensure that we have some reserves. And in my day-dreaming about what I’d do as governor for a day, I’d also tell the chair of the Senate Rules Committee to keep SJR 15 right where it is – on the inactive list of bills trapped in rules destined to never see further action this session. SJR 15, for those who don’t follow those things, would refer to voters repeal of the kicker.

These are not the times for political sideshows on election day. We’ve got more important issues needing attention.

 

Further reading: 

     KGW: Showdown in the legislature

     OPB: Gov. Kotek says federal firefighting help uncertain

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com/ Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]