New Government in Canada, too.

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on his way out.

Meanwhile, President-elect Trump is insulting Trudeau, threatening Canada with tariffs, complaining about undocumented people crossing their border into the U.S., and trolling them by saying Canada is about to become the 51st state. 

Trump is being a troublesome downstairs neighbor to Canada.

Justin Trudeau announces resignation

Canada doesn't get the attention it deserves because it is no trouble. It is like a quiet and cooperative upstairs neighbor who was there in the building when we moved in, who we take for granted, and who we barely notice unless we need something.

Sandford Borins is a college classmate. He is Canadian. After a long academic career at the University of Toronto, he is now retired and is Professor of Public Management Emeritus. He maintains his own website where he publishes regularly on Canadian government: https://sandfordborins.com.

I asked him to bring me up to date on what's happening upstairs.

Borins' office

Guest Post by Sandford Borins

Trudeau’s Resignation and Replacement: What it Means for the U.S.

The prime minister in a parliamentary democracy is like the Speaker of the House of Representatives, but with superpowers. Like the Speaker, the Prime Minister is a member of the legislature, who must have the confidence of both their party and the entire legislature to stay in power. Unlike the Speaker, the Prime Minister is also head of the executive branch, makes major appointments such as judges and ambassadors, and commands the military. Parliamentary democracies (moving in an eastward direction around the globe) include Canada, the UK, Germany, the Nordic countries, Israel, India, Japan, and Australia.

Trudeau was Trapped

After almost 10 challenging years in power, Justin Trudeau’s popularity has eroded and then tanked. Blame it mainly on decisions regarding the pandemic (a hard line), the post-pandemic inflation (increasing interest rates), immigration (admitting large numbers of immigrants), and climate change (a carbon tax). Trudeau’s current mandate began in October 2021 and ends in October 2025. With a Liberal minority in the five-party House of Commons, the four opposition parties promised to vote for non-confidence in the Trudeau Government in January, which would lead to an immediate election.

Trudeau also lost the confidence of his own members of parliament. The inciting incident came when he fired Chrystia Freeland, his minister of finance and second-in-command. Faced with certain defeat in the House of Commons and near-certain defeat in the election, Trudeau resigned on Monday.

What Comes Next

Trudeau’s Liberal Party will choose a new leader in an accelerated leadership campaign that should be completed by late February (not quite as quick as Kamala Harris’s coronation). Trudeau will stay on as caretaker and the House of Commons will recess until the new Liberal leader (and hence prime minister) is chosen. The new Liberal leader will have to meet the House of Commons, and it is likely the opposition parties will immediately vote non-confidence, leading to a spring election. While the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, have a strong lead in the polls, their victory is not as certain as it would be if Trudeau were leading the Liberals.

Foreign Policy by Social Media 

Donald Trump has been conducting foreign policy by social media since his election on November 5. He has turned his guns on traditional and nearby allies whom he perceives to be weak, including Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Denmark. He has threatened across-the-board 25 percent tariffs for Canada and Mexico and either purchase or seizure of assets from Panama (the Canal) and Denmark (Greenland). And he has persistently trolled Trudeau (calling him Governor) and Canada (calling it the 51st state). Is this foreign policy intended to “show dominance” and therefore threaten the rest of the world? Is it intended to make American great by making traditional allies weak? We will begin to know after January 20 whether Trump’s actions match his words.

Pushback is Inevitable 

Chrystia Freeland had been lead Canadian negotiator for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA , or CUSMA, as it is called here). When she resigned, Trump tweeted, “Her behavior was totally toxic … She will not be missed!!!” This sounds like another version of the “nasty woman” meme. If anything, it will strengthen her position as a contender to succeed Trudeau. (By the way, Freeland has her undergraduate degree from Harvard and was a Rhodes Scholar. One of the other leading contenders, Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and then Bank of England, has his undergraduate degree from Harvard and Ph.D. from Oxford). Canadians will be looking for a Prime Minister, whether Liberal or Conservative, not only with a strong resume, but with the balls to stand up to Trump. 

If Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Americans will immediately face higher prices for gasoline, food, wood for housing, and automobiles, among other things. And there will be counter-vailing tariffs that will reduce sales of American goods in Canada and Mexico. Trump is acting from a world view that sees all relationships among nations as dominance and exploitation, rather than mutually beneficial exchange. Does this way greatness lie, or does this way madness lie?

 

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