Denise Krause: How an underdog wins an election

Denise Krause can win her election for county commissioner.

She will be a watchdog. Not an echo.

On the surface it looks bad for her. She is a Democrat in a Republican-majority county. Powerful business interests have endorsed her opponent. 

Her situation is hopeless, right? No. She can win.

Krause: from her campaign website

First, a disclaimer and context. I contributed to Denise Krause's campaign and hope she wins. I get along with Republicans and over half of my financial advisory clients were Republicans. But on matters of politics I hear more from Democrats than Republicans nowadays, especially since Trump changed the GOP. No doubt this colors my judgment. One more thing; I have a history. I won an election for county commissioner notwithstanding the Reagan landslide of 1980. That experience seems to me eerily similar to this one. Nearly every wealthy, powerful civic leader in Jackson County supported my Republican opponent. But I won anyway. In fact, I think that's why I won. That's why Denise Krause can win.

Krause has a Ph.D. in preventive medicine and for 25 years she managed large budgets and a staff. She more than meets the professional qualifications for the job. She led the effort to change the county charter to increase the number of commissioners from three to five, to make the positions nonpartisan, and to reduce their pay if the number of commissioners increased. The initiatives lost, but Krause became known for her effort. Her opponent, Randy Sparacino, is also qualified for the job. He is a retired law enforcement officer, the former Medford police chief, and is now the mayor of Medford, a nonpartisan unpaid position. 

Two years ago Sparacino ran as a Republican for a state Senate seat in a district that includes the Democratic portion of the county. He lost. Upstate GOP PACs spent $1.1 million in this tiny media market. The ads depicted Sparacino as a hard-right Republican foot-soldier of the state GOP -- a losing message in that district. The campaign re-shaped his reputation from nonpartisan mayor to a good, reliable member of the local GOP/ Chamber of Commerce/ people-in-power team. He is Mr. Establishment. 

That is Sparacino's strength. It is why he can massively outspend Krause. Sparacino is the convenient replacement for a departing member on the three-person Board of Commissioners. With major donations from the construction companies, paving companies, and garbage company franchise-holder doing business with the county, the county commissioners' team defeated the county initiatives. Why did these companies care whether there were three commissioners or five? They surely didn't. They donated because commissioners in their mutual support circle asked them to defend the status quo. They did what any businessperson doing business with the county would do. They said yes.  

A Sparacino advertising blitz is underway, with endorsement ads from members of the local business and political establishment. Elect our friend! He's one of us. Like his voters pamphlet, his campaign website is primarily a long list of endorsements. Each of those 35 dots below opens a web page to yet another industry group, business leader, or local politician endorsing Sparacino. 

Sparacino campaign website

That is not Krause's doom. It is her opportunity. Randy Sparacino is indeed, a reliable member of the local establishment team of mutual supporters. She doesn't have to prove that. Sparacino says it himself, repeatedly. If voters want a replacement member of that team, they should vote for Sparacino. 

I suspect that Sparacino and this team misunderstand the moment and the electorate. In fact, I think they have it backwards. People are suspicious of tight teams of public officials, business contractors, campaign donors. They are all good buddies. It is the classic good ol' boy closed loop.

Voters of both major parties are in an ornery mood. The newly MAGA GOP is ready to believe dark conspiracies of corruption by people in power, and the commissioners and their group of campaign contributors are most certainly the people in power here. Democrats have their own worries about democratic process, campaign contributions, and behind-closed-doors power. Everyone fears the swamp. There is lots of suspicion in the air. In the recent May election on initiatives to update the county charter, Jackson County voters did not give the commissioners a vote of confidence. Quite the opposite. The public doesn't seem to want more of whatever commissioners bring to the table. The vote to increase the number of commissioners from three to five failed 55% to 45%. The public voted 63% to 37% to cut the commissioners' salaries in half. Voters don't think they are getting their money's worth.

Voters generally seem grouchy about politics at every level, national, state, and local. I hear complaints that the commissioners are useless and unworthy rubber stamps for the county administrator. The team Sparacino is joining is in a slump. 

Krause is the outsider here. She is positioned as an independent voice. She isn't part of the team. She can question and challenge the county administrator's recommendations in a way the current commissioners appear not to do. In the midst of a jail crisis the county decided to spend over $60 million on a recreation center that can double as a "pandemic crisis" building. I don't know anyone in the general public who thinks that was a great idea. Krause has an opportunity to look like -- and be -- an independent and credible watchdog. 

Krause will be outspent. Maybe the brute force of all the advertising will win it for Sparacino. His problem is that its volume and source of his ads demonstrate what people suspect -- that he is just another member of the closed group that runs things in the county. Krause is not.

That's why Krause can win. 

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