Thursday, October 31, 2024

Donald Trump: The origin story

Roy Cohn to Donald Trump:
        "The first rule is the simplest: Attack. Attack. Attack."


Trump was famous long before he came down the escalator. He was famous even before the NBC reality TV show, The Apprentice.


He was famous as a hard-nosed, play-dirty New York real estate developer.

In 1990, early in my career as a financial advisor, I remember a supposedly-hot investment: high-yield bonds backed by Trump and his Taj Mahal casino. Trump's name gave the bonds cachet and credibility in a way that similar bonds issued by a no-name company would lack. Trump was somebody, a familiar name on the radar of the investors and investment advisors. (I didn't sell them. I had no clients interested in buying individual junk bonds.)

College classmate Sandford Borins is Professor of Public Management Emeritus at the University of Toronto. Much of his ongoing research and commentary is about politics in Canada, but a person cannot study Canada without studying the U.S. Today Sandy shares his observations about a biopic on our Donald Trump. Sandy continues to write and post his observations about politics, management, and life at https://www.sandfordborins.com

He is pictured here in a photograph taken by his son Nathaniel. He is standing under a maple tree wearing a shirt we received at our 50th college reunion.




Guest Post by Sandford Borins

The Apprentice: Moving the Needle?

From the movie

In an interview in the print version of The New York Times last Sunday, Jeremy Strong, who plays Donald Trump’s mentor Roy Cohn remarks on the timing of The Apprentice’s recent release in the US – “incredibly fortuitous that it can come out at a moment where it has the potential to illuminate something about the inner workings of this man” – and the possibility that it could become a game-changer: “I think it offers vital insight which could move the needle in a real way.”

A Devil Mentored by Devils

In The Social Network, another bildungsroman, Aaron Sorkin has one of his characters – a lawyer who mentors the fictional Mark Zuckerberg – opine that every creation story needs a devil. At its heart, this creation story has several, Donald Trump himself, his father Fred, and most importantly, his eventual surrogate father Roy Cohn. From Fred, Donald imbibes the message that there are two types of people, killers or losers. Then Cohn provides a three-part roadmap for becoming a killer: first, attack, attack, attack; second, admit, nothing, deny everything; third, always claim victory, never admit defeat.

Not only does The Apprentice portray a person whose political modus operandi exemplifies dishonesty and negativity, but it heightens its disdain by showing Trump’s relationships with other people as purely self-interested and transactional. Trump thus disposes of his mentor when he is suffering from AIDS. And his marriage to Ivana is equally exploitative. The movie also mentions Trump’s amphetamine habit and his physical self-improvement through hair implants and liposuction.

When Ivana tries to spice up their sex life by giving him the best-seller The G-Spot, he responds by telling her he is no longer attracted to her and doesn’t like the feel of her augmented breasts; when she answers back, he rapes her. Trump dismisses his girlfriend Marla Maples – a non-speaking role – by walking away, unconsummated, from her blowjob when he gets a business idea. The film’s depiction of Trump is thus loathsome and disgusting, evil and weird.

Will this melange of historical fact and cinematic embellishment move the needle in the current election campaign? The film hasn’t had particularly large audiences or rave reviews. After its initial showing at the Cannes Film Festival, Trump has attacked it (rule 1) and denied there is any truth to it (rule 2). And we know that many voters support Trump despite an assessment of his character similar to this film’s because they endorse his political agenda, especially his America-first hostility to immigrants and mercantilist economics.

Acting and Emplotment

The film’s strength is that the actors in the three major roles are convincing: Jeremy Strong depicting Roy Cohn’s unflappable cynicism, Sebastian Stan expressing Donald Trump’s ambition and self-centeredness, and Maria Bakalova portraying Ivana Trump as a woman trying to be a loving spouse and mother in an impossible situation.

The film’s major weakness is how its plot was structured. To avoid the dreariness of chronology, writers and directors of biopics often build the plot around a revealing and pivotal aspect of the protagonist’s life and present it as a quest to achieve a key goal. For example, Steven Spielberg in Lincoln focused on Lincoln’s political strategy and machinations to convince the House of Representatives to confirm the thirteenth amendment, outlawing slavery. Similarly, Aaron Sorkin, in The Social Network, used Mark Zuckerberg’s legal battles with his former partners for shares of the value Facebook created. Reagan, while not nearly as successful as either of these movies, revolves around on Reagan’s opposition to Communism, in particular his efforts to overthrow the Soviet Union.

The Apprentice begins with Trump’s quest to build the Trump Tower, but after that quest is completed two-thirds of the way through, it segues to Trump’s efforts to build a casino in Atlantic City and his ensuing business and marital troubles. It thus becomes merely a chronological treatment of Trumps’ rise to prominence between 1973 and 1986. In the culminating scene of the film, Trump is interviewed for The Art of the Deal and tells biographer Tony Schwartz that what you see is what you get, and any attempt at psychological explanation will be fruitless. This biopic admits defeat in the key task of that genre, shining an interpretive light on personal development.

 

Homage to Oliver Stone

Before concluding I must mention that The Apprentice includes an homage to Oliver Stone’s Wall Street. Wall Street’s famous limo scene involves Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) convincing his acolyte Bud Fox (Charlie Sheen) to cross over the line to criminality while The Apprentice has a scene where Roy Cohn, riding in a limo with Trump, shows him how to make a convincing phone call. While I chuckled at the homage, I thought the original was a far stronger scene. I’ve included the links, so you can decide for yourself.

An Alternative to CNN

In the last week before the US election, I admit to spending a lot of time watching CNN, reading The New York Times, obsessively checking 538, and reading more than a few writers pointing out the potential inaccuracy of polls in a close race in which turnout and shy voters’ misleading responses to pollsters are important factors. Seeing this film was an attempt to look for a different perspective on the events unfolding this week; it’s no classic, but it’s appropriate entertainment.

 



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Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Another look back from the future: Why Trump lost.

In the weeks ahead, we will hear all about why Trump lost. 

In hindsight, it will be obvious.

Yesterday I described how pundits would explain a Kamala Harris loss. Today is Trump's turn.

Trump lost because:

1. He was doomed from the start. Trump's schtick and special mix of right wing populism have never had majority approval. He had support from a dedicated minority, which was enough to take over the GOP but not enough to win a nationwide majority.

2. Trump never expanded his base -- because he couldn't. Trump's core constituency demanded Rambo Trump. A move to a "kinder and gentler" style would be off-brand and unacceptable. Besides, Trump didn't want to change.

3. Trump had to stick to the Big Lie story of having won the 2020 election. He was trapped by having successfully sold it to his MAGA base. The story is a turnoff to a majority of voters. 

4. His end-of-campaign messaging got sloppy. Americans are all too willing to hear racist and misogynist dog whistles, but Trump's campaign went a step too far with Haitian cat eaters, Latin American murderers, Puerto Rican garbage, and Harris as "low-IQ" and "mentally retarded." 

5. The abortion issue. Trump's judges unleashed a monster. Red-state anti-abortion absolutists voted into law locally-popular measures that essentially banned abortion. An idea emerged: If Republicans have power they will go crazy on abortion. They are doing it already. This hurt Trump with female voters.

6. Economic events confounded the Trump message. Inflation kept dropping. Gasoline prices had fallen. Unemployment was low again. The Fed lowered interest rates. The U.S. economy was the strongest in the world.  Trump is selling a message of economic disaster. His base believes it, but Trump did not get the clear confirmation from the real world to make this stick with marginal voters. There are "help wanted" signs everywhere. The stock market is up, home prices are up, and store shelves are full.

7. The Trump schtick has gotten old. Americans tend to give each party about eight years, then tire of them and let the other team have a chance. Trump had been out of office, but he had not left the scene. Indeed, he has remained the prime mover in American politics for nine years. Electing Trump means more-of-the-same, in the form of high-drama disruptive behavior. Trump is exhausting.

8. Trump looks old and sounds weird and wacky. Looked at with the eyes of voters under 30 or 35, Trump was a cranky old man  stuck in the past.

9. Trump could not stay on message. Trump's criminality, sex crimes, and legal problems did not hurt him. He is understood by a majority of Americans to be a strong leader, not a good man. He said with confidence that he could bring a stronger economy, tariffs instead of taxes, lower inflation, and jobs returning to America. Trump can sell illusions. Trump kept muddling that message with the Big Lie and personal grievances. 

10. The Supreme Court. Trump's great victory in packing the Supreme Court became a political negative. Trump judges come across as political and extreme. What next, if Trump gets four more years? Will they enforce the Comstock Act, criminalize homosexuality, reinstate school prayer, criminalize pornography, and remove citizenship from tens of millions of people born in the U.S. to parents here illegally? 

11. Elon Musk. Musk is a hero to many. He gave hundreds of millions of dollars to Trump as money and as in-kind contributions via the Twitter/X feed. It was was a strategic error for Trump to let Musk be so prominent. Musk showed voters that Trump is conspicuously connected to the interests of billionaires. It muddled Trump's brand as a swamp drainer who fights for the little guy. Voters on the margin barely know of Peter Thiel and other billionaire Trump supporters, but they know Musk. 

12. Character matters, at least a little. Trump represents swashbuckling independence, strength, and willingness to break through barriers to make change. Many Americans like that. But there is no denying that Trump flouts every virtue people would want in a spouse, an employee, or a leader. No search committee would hire a person with Trump's record of financial crimes, personal grift, sexual behavior, flagrant dishonesty, and public boorishness. 


Trump presents like an inspirational national leader -- a Napoleon. Democracies find them exciting and tempting. Talented as Trump is in some matters, and popular as he is with a near-majority of Americans, he has profound character flaws, documented and attested to by his former closest associates. We have seen them. Trump cannot hide them. Kamala Harris is too new in the public eye for us to be certain that she is a trustworthy leader. But voters know Trump is not. 



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Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Why Kamala Harris lost. (Relax. Tomorrow, I describe why Trump lost)

In the weeks ahead, we will hear all about why Harris lost. 

In hindsight, it will be obvious.


Election night, 2016

Election night, 2016

On the last day of 2016, I published a post listing nine reasons why Hillary Clinton lost. Eventually I came up with over 80 separate reasons.
 Here is a start on the list for 2024. 

Harris lost because:
1. Biden was pig-headed. He waited too long to admit that he had aged conspicuously, and to drop out of the race. Kamala Harris needed more time to get better known and to define herself.

2. Harris is revealed to have surely known about Biden's diminished condition, so she was part of a coverup. It was the Democrats' own "big lie." That cost her a clear contrast with Trump as the person who would be straight with the American people.

3. Harris did not separate herself from Biden clearly enough. She said she agreed with administration policies, making herself the status quo candidate in Biden's "second term." Voters want change.

4. The Afghanistan withdrawal made Biden -- and Harris by association -- look incompetent. Biden foolishly failed to fire any generals for the screw-up, so the administration got the full political blame.

5. Obama did not disavow the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which accelerated the decline of U.S. manufacturing. This positioned Democrats as status quo on eroding manufacturing, which left a giant political opportunity for Trump, thus the red shift. The problem lingers. It cost Democrats the Upper Midwest "blue wall."

6. Biden and Harris waited too long to stop the crush of immigrants at the southern border. They were trapped by their reflexive contempt for Trump's racism and therefore saw immigration as a problem of prejudice instead of a legitimate problem of disorder.

7. Harris doesn't answer policy questions clearly and directly, so she comes across as evasive and "political," especially compared to Trump. "I grew up in a middle class family" is not a direct answer to what you will do to reduce inflation or immigration fraud.

8. Hero or anti-hero, even when outrageous and disgusting in his approach, Trump is the center of attention. That has made him the prime mover in our politics for over nine years. That doomed Harris to be the second banana, a position of relative inconsequence. Americans reject as weak and incompetent a candidate who can be made inconsequential.

9. People consider Trump's blunt statements, including his open misogyny and racism, to be signals of courage and honesty. He says what he believes.

10. Trump voices contempt for the same people most Republicans, and a great many other voters, voters dislike. A great many Americans share Trump's views and are happy someone is saying aloud what they think.

11. Harris could not break Trump's hold on evangelical Christian voters, even though he betrayed them on abortion. Trump is their Cyrus the Great, the bad man who is the agent of God to get good things done. That immunizes Trump from criticism for his bad behavior.

12. Harris did not signal limits on her support for trans rights, which allowed Trump to promulgate an image of Harris as dangerously out of touch.

13. Harris had an impossible job: Support Israel enough to please Jewish voters without losing Muslim votes in Michigan. Americans are split. No Democrat could bridge the divide.

13. Jill Stein.

14. As Hispanic voters become citizens and assimilate into the American mainstream they vote their religion and socio-economic status, not their ethnicity. Democrats were slow to realize this.

15. Men are men, even when they know they are being crude. A great many men agree with Trump's masculine signaling, and are envious of Trump's sexual adventures.
 


That is 15. I could go on. In hindsight, it will be obvious that Harris was doomed by circumstances and mistakes.

Tomorrow I describe why it will be obvious that Trump would lose.



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Monday, October 28, 2024

The crowd cheered.

     "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross."
          Attributed to American Author Sinclair Lewis
Trump told us exactly what he thinks, whom he dislikes, and what he would try to do. 

Democrats warn that he sounds a whole lot like Hitler, but Trump didn't back down. He doubled down.

Populist authoritarianism is popular.

Trump is not Hitler. Trump promised us detention camps for immigrants and mass expulsions, but not death camps. As president, Trump won't send troops to occupy and seize Mexico. He will frighten media critics into self-censorship -- that has already happened -- but we should not expect him to seize media assets. The U.S. has always had an underclass. Black slaves. Jim Crow Blacks. Irish immigrants. Catholics. Chinese immigrants. Ethnic Japanese during World War II. Muslims who look or act foreign. Haitians. Trump singling out a dangerous internal enemy is nothing new. It is tradition, and popular.

When fascism comes to America, it won't be frightening in the way that German fascism of 1945 was frightening. A great many people will consider American-style fascism patriotic and overdue. The signs at Madison Square Garden weren't swastikas. The signs read: "He will fix it."


Warm-up acts prepared the Madison Square Garden crowd.

Stephen Miller, Trump's top advisor on immigration issues: "America is for Americans and Americans only.”

Comic Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico "a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean."

Multiple speakers continued the theme of illegitimate people inside America. The New York Times wrote:

Another speaker likened Vice President Kamala Harris to a prostitute with “pimp handlers.” A third called her “the Antichrist.” And the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson mocked Ms. Harris — the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father — with a made-up ethnicity, saying she was vying to become “the first Samoan-Malaysian, low IQ former California prosecutor ever to be elected president.

Trump himself said the greatest danger to the U.S. was a dark, mysterious conspiracy. 

We're running against something far bigger than Joe [Biden] or Kamala and far more powerful than them, which is a massive, vicious, crooked, radical left machine that runs today's Democrat Party. They're just vessels. In fact, they're perfect vessels because they'll never give them a hard time. They'll do whatever they want. I know many of them. It's just this amorphous group of people. But they're smart, and they're vicious.

Trump addressed immigration:

I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, going to kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible. And to expedite removals of Tren de Aragua and other savage gangs like MS-13, which is equally vicious, I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

And taxes:

We will rapidly defeat inflation, and we will very simply make America affordable again. We're going to make it affordable. I will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses, and we will have no tax on tips. No tax on overtime. And no tax on Social Security benefits for our seniors.

And energy:

I will terminate the ‘green new scam.’ And we'll cut your energy prices in half, 50%, within one year from Jan. 20th. Is the fake news hearing that?

Mark Twain said history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. A close rhyme calling Trump another Hitler discredits itself because we cannot see 1933 without seeing 1945. Trump is not Hitler of 1945. Whatever happens in America in four years of a Trump presidency, it will be the American way and will reflect American cultural symbols. Jews are safe this time. Trump doesn't hate Jews. He hires them to be his accountants and lawyers. 

History has moved on. The popularity of populist authoritarianism remains, but the targets evolve. Now the dangerous people, the vermin rotting out America, are dark-skinned immigrants. And woke people. And Democrats. And homosexuals and trans people. And the media. And uncooperative election officials. And RINOs. And Mexicans. And Chinese. There are plenty of enemies, and Trump is our great leader. 


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Sunday, October 27, 2024

Easy Sunday: Take a break from the election

Ten days until the election. It is a moment of anticipation and dread.

It is like waiting for the pathology report.

Let's get away for two minutes to a time 21 years ago. A young girl was struggling to sing the National Anthem at a Portland Blazers game. The Blazer coach stepped over to rescue her. It is the oldest trope in Western literature. The good guys on the home team rescue a young woman in distress. This time it wasn't Agamemnon and Achilles. It was Maurice Cheeks.

I am going to resist overthinking this. Nor will I relate it to the election, nor liken it to the impermanence of bright red leaves on the tree, nor make it a metaphor of anything. I am going to try to ignore whether the event models parenthood or masculinity, whether it demonstrates the power of social cooperation, or whether it is a comment on patriarchy, good or bad. 

Let's just dedicate this easy Sunday post to people who can just take a quiet moment to enjoy a simple gift when one comes along.




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Saturday, October 26, 2024

Looking at the Rubicon

Chris Christie condemns Donald Trump, saying he is a danger to America and the world.

He doesn't want to say he will vote for Kamala Harris.

Christie, laying into Trump in New Hampshire

Guest post author Rick Millward says Chris Christie is "All MAGA, No Hat." Christie talks big but he won't cross the Rubicon. He won't openly say he will vote for Harris.

There is a difference between letting something happen and causing it to happen. In hypotheticals to test ethical principles, people typically say they favor an outcome where a locomotive heading toward a fork in the tracks takes the direction where it kills only a single schoolchild rather than the track where it mows down 20. But if asked whether one would intentionally murder that one child as the mechanism to divert the locomotive from hitting the 20, people feel differently. Me murder the child? No, not that. They want it to happen, but not by their agency.

Christie wants Trump to go down, but not by his hand.

Rick Millward is a musician, song writer, and music producer. He moved to Southern Oregon from Nashville. He performs primarily in wine venues in Southern Oregon.


Guest Post by Rick Millward
All MAGA, no Hat?

Today I watched Chris Christie on "The View." I listened to a long critique of Trump that included “I don’t disagree with what others are saying.” That's what he said when reminded that other Republicans said Trump was a fascist. Christie didn't not want to say it himself. He wanted one degree of separation. To their credit, the hosts asked him directly if he would endorse the vice president, and his answer was: “She hasn’t convinced me yet.”

Wow, Chris, really? How disappointing. I actually expected him to endorse Kamala Harris, and what better venue than "The View?"

What more does he or any “good” Republican need to know? Christie took every opportunity for the last year to diss Trump. Christie blamed Trump for their election losses in 2018, 2020, and 2022, noting that Trump picks his candidates based purely on loyalty, not experience or electability. Christie doesn't mince words:

 *** Referring to Trump having diverted campaign contributions into payments of his legal fees, he called Trump "the cheapest S.O.B. I've ever met in my life." 

***Christie said, “He’s becoming crazier. And now he’s citing Vladimir Putin as a character witness, a guy who is a murderous thug all around the world.”

*** Christie said, "He’s disgusting. And what he’s doing is dog-whistling to Americans."  
*** Reacting to a Trump video mocking his weight, Christie said, “It just renewed in my own mind what a child he is. He’s a baby.”

Christie said, “I think character is destiny for this country, and we’ve got to make a decision about what the character of the person should be who sits behind the desk in the Oval Office.”

All this, and some praise for the vice president as well, and yet no endorsement of her? Every day the list of “good” Republicans grows. It began with Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and is now in the hundreds; It includes elected officials, Trump cabinet members and White House staff, and military officers -- people who saw Trump up close and say they endorse Harris' election.

Perhaps Christie has some hope for a political future inside the GOP that would be lost if he ever stepped over the line and urged voters to support a Democrat. While many have finally gone through the five stages to acceptance of the death of the Republican Party, far more are still at the bargaining stage. Christie is somewhere on the journey. Christie knows that if the Republican Party is to be reformed, it must include the banishment of Trump and MAGA. This purging won’t happen if Trump is elected, and in fact will become impossible if these non-democratic forces become entrenched. Good Republicans have nothing to lose by voting for Democrats if they hope to restore sense to the GOP. 
The Lincoln Project, The Bulwark, and others believe the Republican Party is salvageable. That process begins with Trump losing this election. Trump loses because Harris wins; it is that simple. It is time for holdouts like Christie to say it, yes, they support Harris because that is how Trump loses, America wins, and the restoration of the GOP can begin.




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Friday, October 25, 2024

Eleven hundred and one Town Hall meetings

Ron Wyden met with Phoenix High School students in his 1,101st Town Hall since becoming a U.S. senator.

It took place in a meeting reserved for students and media.

Wyden, in front, sitting with students following the Town Hall


Wyden hears the Star Spangled Banner behind the Phoenix Pirates lectern

Wyden set an ambitious goal when he was elected to the Senate back in 1996. He said he would meet with citizens in every one of Oregon's 36 counties every single year. That promise meant that Wyden -- who lives in Portland and had represented a Portland-centered congressional district -- was committing himself to spending serious time well outside blue metropolitan Portland where most Oregon voters live. He would be hearing from people in lightly-populated rural districts, some of which vote three-to-one, four-to-one, and in the case of Lake County to the east of Medford, five-to-one for Trump. Ron Wyden is a Democrat.

A Wyden Town Hall in July in Medford was interrupted at its beginning by an organized group of six or eight audience members who stood up and began shouting while pacing around the meeting room reading from scripts. 



Their message was opposition to American support of Israel, but the primary intent was disruption, since each person was shouting out a different script. I wrote in a post the following day that I thought that after three to five minutes the large contingent of police on hand should have escorted them out. I considered their removal a way to protect free speech. (No one asked for my opinion.) The police did not remove them, the disruptive shouting continued, and the Town Meeting adjourned after a few minutes.

The protesters planned a return. They announced their intention by mass leafleting Phoenix High School on Wednesday and again yesterday prior to the 10 a.m. meeting. 


The School District saw the material and considered it disturbing enough that they went into a lockdown protect-the-students protocol that is now commonplace in this era of school shootings. The event was open to students but closed to the general public. I was able to attend. I wore lanyards with MEDIA and UpClose identification. I was granted entrance after going through locked doors and metal mesh gates in hallways that are open and closed by designated officials with coded buzzers. School architecture has changed into defensible spaces since I was in school. The main office for the school is locked, and entrance both in and out of that office requires that the door be activated by a person with a code.

The Town Hall itself was an engaging exchange with a high school audience primarily of juniors and seniors. The questions had an education and jobs focus. What is Wyden doing to help teachers? What are you doing to help young people going to college? What about student debt? What about mental health care for young people? 

There were questions, too, about broader public policy. A student asked: What about Israel, Palestine, and Gaza? Wyden said he had deep sympathy for Jewish mothers who lost children in the October 7 attack and for Palestinian mothers who lost children in Gaza. He said he favored a two-state solution. 

Wyden is adept at the format. He gives 30-to-60 second answers that directly address the question asked. He makes jokes familiar to people who have attended other Town Halls: his dashed dreams of being a college and NBA basketball star, his threat to give a long opening and closing address, and his request for softball questions. He bantered with audience members and asked a tall young man with a big U. of O. shirt about his plans to play basketball and study engineering. He stood for photos with teachers, students, and school board members.




This Town Hall was an adjustment from traditional formats of open-to-the-public, come-one-come all events. This Town Hall had more attendees than the one in July, but it was not the same. Wyden met at length at a public event at a Children's Museum ribbon-cutting event at the re-purposed Carnegie Library building in downtown Medford. It went off without trouble. Wyden is getting out there.

The threat of disruption demonstrates the fragility of democratic representation. Normally, Town Halls are unguarded and unfiltered opportunities for citizens to see their representatives. They take effort to set up; they are easy to disrupt.  A small group of people willing to shout can stop one meeting and intimidate a cautious school district into limiting attendance at another. 

This may become the new normal.



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Thursday, October 24, 2024

So very cynical. Two ads

One ad tells Muslims in Dearborn, Michigan, that Kamala Harris is a Jew-loving supporter of Israel.

Another ad tells Jewish neighborhoods in Pennsylvania that Kamala Harris is an anti-Semite who panders to Palestine.

The ads are by the same PAC, with the same format, running at the same time. Today.

Elon Musk funded the ads.

The ads are startling for their cynicism, even in this cynical age. It isn't just the hypocrisy of the opposite messages. It is the damage the ads leave behind. The ads are straight-up appeals to bigotry.

This ad "Stands with Israel" runs in Michigan, in zip codes with significant populations of Muslims. 

 Ad narration:

Vice president Harris has chosen a side -- the right side. Harris has made herself clear: She stands with Israel and the Jewish people. And joining Kamala will be her husband and top advisor, Doug Emhoff, who would be the first Jewish presidential spouse ever. Kamala relies on her husband Doug for counsel on the toughest issues like Israel's noble fight against the radical terrorists in Gaza. And when Doug talks, Kamala listens. Kamala and Doug, America's pro-Israel power couple.

                                           ---   ---

Another ad, "Stands with Palestine," runs in Jewish neighborhoods in Pennsylvania. It accuses Harris of being the opposite of what it says in the Dearborn ad: 

Ad narration: 

Two-faced Kamala Harris is secretly campaigning for Palestine and trying to get away with it. In Jewish communities throughout America questions are being asked why is she is running ads pandering to Palestine Why did Kamala Harris support denying Israel the weapons needed to defeat the Hamas terrorists who massacred thousands? And why did Harris show sympathy for college protesters who are rabidly antisemitic? We must stand up to anti-Semitism. We say no more. Kamala Harris, stop pandering to Palestine and stand with our ally Israel.

The ads are funded by Future Coalition PAC. It's sole funder was another PAC, Build America's Future PAC, funded by Elon Musk.


The ad running in Dearborn doesn't assert that Doug Emhoff is pro-Israel, a matter of politics. The ad dangles in front of its audience that Emhoff is Jewish, a matter of identity. Harris is married to a Jew!

It is fair to ask me: Am I so new to politics, so naive, so delicate, that I am able to be surprised by this pairing of ads? Don't I realize that all's fair in love and political war? 

I surprised and dismayed. It is another erosion in our politics.

Future Coalition PAC could easily have disguised the fact that both ads were created by the same entity, and paid for the ads from different PACs. They didn't bother. They didn't mind their hypocrisy being immediately noticed -- two opposite messages. Cynical manipulation -- whether it be inventing a story of Haitian immigrants eating cats, or this pair of ads -- is a virtue now. One can admit it and be proud of doing so. Dishonesty and hypocrisy don't matter. 

Political total war has another consequence. It leaves the home battlefield in worse condition than before. This ad doesn't create anti-Semitism, but it feeds it. And the American public gets increasingly accustomed to being lied to.

Today is a mixed day for Elon Musk. Possibly some opprobrium sprinkles down on him for his involvement in this bit of damage to American politics. But it is also a day in which Tesla's shares rose on the announcement that profits beat expectations and his projection of 20% vehicle sales growth next year.  

Personally, I feel worse about Musk and Tesla. The content of those ads, and their pairing, just seems so wrong, so destructive. As I had written a month ago, I had looked forward to buying a Tesla for my next car. Now I am not. Musk has changed the meaning of the Tesla brand. There is an implied MAGA bumper strip on the car. There is a faint watermark of "I'm okay with a little anti-Semitism if it wins Michigan for Trump" on the rear window.

Musk and Tesla will do well without my purchase. Most people won't notice or care about the Musk overlay onto the brand. And there are plenty of anti-Semites and Trump supporters who will be okay with the implied badges.



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Wednesday, October 23, 2024

No do-over.

“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”

   
 Omar Khayyám, translated by Edward FitzGerald
Democrats are frustrated. Trump might win. How can Americans possibly vote into a position of power and trust a person of such obvious bad character and behavior?  

Democrats made mistakes. 

Democrats are getting the blame for inflation. It hurts them, but it is mostly a bad rap. It was the inevitable after-effect of Covid's disruptions and a rational, successful response to it. 

Democrats are getting the blame, too, for high rents and homelessness. That, too, is a bad rap to blame on Democrats. It was and remains a bi-partisan failure. Both parties ignored very bad mortgages in the housing boom. Both parties own the housing construction bust.

But Democrats need to be honest and clear-eyed about two big mistakes that undermine the Harris candidacy. There should be a bright line difference between Harris and Trump. In fact, it is muddled. Democrats believe that Trump is so bad that the little misdemeanors of Democrats pale in comparison with Trump's. Trump is a convicted felon, for gosh sakes. He lies shamelessly

Republicans and non aligned people see it differently. 

Democrats don't start from a presumption of neutrality or good faith. Harris presents herself as a "normal Democrat." That isn't good enough. This is an era of mistrust. 


The public now understands that Democrats hid the ball on Biden's state of health and competence. He declined in the past three years from marginal but good-enough to something less than that. I commented on his use of teleprompters for his stump speeches back in 2019. He rambled without them. It was worse in the hour I saw him at a Portland, Oregon fundraising event in 2019. Attendees were forbidden from photographing or recording it. I think they were hiding him even then.

It is possible that in the judgment functions of a president, Biden is still fully competent. But the job of the president does not take place solely in small rooms with key advisors. It is a job of leadership, which requires word and body-language communication with the public. One can call it a conspiracy to hide the truth. Maybe it was just wishful thinking by close advisors. Maybe it was careerists pleasing a boss who wanted to stay on.The Democratic Party hid an important truth from the public. 

Democrats hid Biden's condition. It was a kind of sleight of hand. I realize Trump's betrayal was worse. Trump wanted to overturn an election and defy the public will. But either way, the public wasn't getting what it thought it was getting.

Democrats can answer that they fixed it. They forced him out. No harm, no foul. But they cannot fix the fact that they hid a problem. 

Democrats dithered dealing with mass uncontrolled immigration, especially at the southern border. Democrats spent three and a half years in inertia mode, still operating on knee-jerk opposition to Trump. Trump is racist, crude, and cruel. But that does not mean that he did not identify a legitimate point of concern. Democrats didn't want to offend a progressive constituency that defined border control as racist cruelty. They waited too long to do something. Democrats said everything was okay when it wasn't.

Democrats can answer that they fixed this, too. Biden issued executive orders. But they cannot make the problem go away. 

Trump's betrayal is worse than Harris'. But for a great many people, the character and honesty issue is a push. They figure that everyone in politics lies. That frees a non-aligned voter to forget about character and compare issues of importance. Who is better on the economy? Who handled inflation better? Who looks stronger? 



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Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Giving good weight.

A story of Trump business practices 

     "Mr. Trump's attorney said, 'If I would sue The Trump Organization I would probably get that money,' but he made very clear to me that it was his job to make sure that it took me so long and so much money that it was probably wise to accept this very meager sum of money. Which I did."
          Andrew Tesoro, an architect stiffed by Trump

When I was starting junior high school, my father decided my brother and I should have a farm crop to sell. We planted a quarter acre of melons that first year. Our first regular customer was Blunt's Ranch Market, a bright orange fruit stand on Highway 99. In those days, melons were marketed in reusable wooden boxes that would hold 50 pounds of melons, a manageable weight for a 12-year old boy. 

When we weighed out the melons, Dad said we would always add two pounds for the box and then another three pounds. Dad called those extra three pounds "giving good weight." 

"Since Mr. Blunt is paying for 50-pound boxes it is important he always gets more than 50 pounds. Sometimes he will weigh a box or two to check on you. Or sometimes he will re-sell whole boxes to a restaurant and he will pull one out of the cooler and put it in the restaurant's truck. Later, when the restaurant weighs it, Mr. Blunt's reputation is on the line that that 50-pound box will weigh out at at least 50 pounds. You want a reputation for honesty. It is how successful people do business. Always give good weight."

My father rarely mentioned Bible authority. But he cited this one many times over the years:

You don't muzzle the ox that treads out the corn, and the laborer is worthy of his hire.

Dad explained: If an animal or a person works for you, you make sure he gets paid. It's wrong to cheat a worker.

The three-minute video below is not a one-off. Trump had a reputation for doing exactly this with vendors. He doesn’t pay the final invoices. He has leverage then. They have done the work and they have paid their subs and their own workers. They need money and they have nothing to withhold. They are in a weak position. He tells them he won’t pay. He tells them their recourse is to sue. They can’t afford to sue. He wins. 

Hear his story:

Click here

There is an idea out there among Trump supporters that Trump's me-first bullying behavior and mindset are exactly the kind of tough-mindedness we need to advance America's interests. As a businessman, he squeezed workers and vendors. The idea is that as president he will squeeze China, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Mexico, NATO, immigrants, bureaucrats, Congress, and Democrats. Mexico will pay for a wall. Chinese businesses will pay our taxes. He's a negotiator. As a tough negotiator he plays hardball and squeezes a little extra -- maybe a lot extra -- out of the loser on the other side. America comes out ahead.

It is immoral. It is also bad business. His companies have filed for bankruptcies six times. In the long run, bad behavior catches up with people, businesses, and governments. Cheaters never prosper. 

If he will betray the people who did good work for him, why in the world would people presume he won't turn around and betray the American people, including the very people who are voting for him?



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