Low-propensity voters are more likely to be Trump supporters than Biden supporters.
Democrats have become the party of college-educated professional people. Republicans have become the party of the working class.
Polls that look only at "likely voters," measured by people who voted in previous midterm and special elections, show Biden still competitive with Trump. Trump pulls ahead among people who vote sometimes, but not always.
The New York Times produced this graphic showing the split among people who voted in the 2022 primary election: Biden wins by 5%.
But among less-likely voters, Trump wins by 14%.
For decades Democrats have attempted to increase the ease of voting, advocating policies of early voting, vote by mail, multiple drop boxes, and easy ID requirements. Republicans have wanted to suppress the vote, disallowing student IDs, implementing multi-step absentee voting procedures, and election-day-only voting. Trump may well have lost the 2020 election because of his condemnation of early voting and vote by mail. He suppressed his own vote.
I don't expect Democrats to stop trying to register and turn out low-propensity voters. They will feel policy inertia. The main change will be in Republican policy. Republicans have awakened. Now Trump urges people to vote however is easiest for them, including the early voting he condemned as outrageous election theft in 2020.
If 2024 is a high turnout election, as is widely expected, and if Trump wins, as polls now show is likely, then we can expect Republican election-denialism to end. Republicans will trust elections again. They will stop promoting laws in the states that restrict voting eligibility and hours and manner of voting. Trump successfully sold election denialism to Republicans. It damaged our democracy. It was transactional for Trump, to meet the moment's need. Trump lost, so the votes had to be fake. He never really meant it. It was a negotiating tactic, built on the premise that high turnouts helped Democrats. It probably wasn't true in 2020, and it certainly is not true in 2024. Republican voters and policy-makers who bought the idea that this was a matter of principle were conned. It was never principle about voting. The principle was Trump winning.
Now the way for Republicans to win is to get less-engaged, less-educated, low-propensity voters to vote, so that is the new policy.
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9 comments:
Rather than which party is more college-educated, it would be interesting to know which took civics classes. In my day, they were required in high school, but today’s Republicans show more reverence for the Confederacy’s racism and treason than for the Constitution.
Hulk Hogan introduced the Republican nominee for President at their convention.
Democrats need to counter this vulgar, profoundly negative populism with a message that is positive, hopeful and inclusive. Biden can't do that and Democrats have miscalculated allowing him to be the face of the brand.
When you are in a hole, stop digging...
As I have said before,
Democracy is the attempt to extract high-quality decisions from a large number of low quality components.
It’s still better than all the other systems (to quote Winston Churchill), but that does not mean it’s perfect.
Biden drops out of presidential race after Democratic revolt following disastrous debate: ‘Best interest of the country’
President Biden made the historically rare decision Sunday to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, less than four months after being declared the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee and just weeks after a dismal debate showing.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” the 81-year-old embattled commander in chief wrote in a remarkable letter he addressed to “My Fellow Americans.
“And while it has been my intention to seek reflection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
Biden also endorsed Kamala Harris. She would be a good candidate to, as Rick said, counter the Republican's "vulgar, profoundly negative populism with a message that is positive, hopeful and inclusive." The White nationalists don't like her, but so what? Hopefully there's more of us than there are of them.
It's not reallly historic, as LBJ also declined to run for reelection.
Of course the media has to play it up.
Cue the complaints about Vice President Harris' pantsuits, laughter or birth certificate.
TFG drops from the debate in 4 ... 3 ... 2 ...
I can't imagine a more fitting end to tRump's ignominious career than having his fat ass kicked by a woman of color. Of course, Republicans will claim it was stolen, but they'll say that regardless of who beats him.
"I can't imagine a more fitting end to tRump's ignominious career than having his fat ass kicked by a woman of color." is absolutely, positively my favorite take I've read all day and made me exponentially more excited about the idea of Kamala as the new nominee. Thanks Mike!
Strange how republicans are the party of criminals yet don't notice their own crimes.
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