Identity isn't destiny.
(But it's the way to bet.)
The Economist magazine has a fun tool. As of Sunday morning it is available and not behind a paywall.
Surprise: By demographics, Joe Biden should be a Trump voter, just barely. After all, he is White, age 75+, Catholic, male, and from a Delaware suburb, mitigated by the fact that he is well-educated.
An archetypal Biden voter is some combination of urban, well-educated, non-religious, Black, from a blue state, gay or bi-sexual, female, and young. The archetypal Trump voter is rural, White, less-educated, Evangelical or Mormon, from a red state, heterosexual, and male.
Do the characteristics make the voter? I don't know. I like to think people have minds and agency. We make decisions. We have free will. But the correlations are very strong.
Click on the tool with the four quadrants to see the most reliably Biden voters in the bottom left. You find this:
In upper right Trump corner one finds this:
Who would be in the middle? Someone with characteristics of different groups.
That would include me. I am White, male, heterosexual, and over age 70. I live in a small city and I farm rural land. I am prosperous enough for taxes to be an issue. That would make me a Trump voter. But I am pretty well educated, am in a bi-racial marriage, and am non-religious. That makes me a Biden voter.
Click here and have some fun.
8 comments:
“Gay white men aged 45-54 from a town in Alabama, who are atheist and have a college degree”.
How many voters does that represent in absolute terms? I must be missing something. Not the first time.
Shoot. I’m 48% chance of voting for Biden. It feels like I loss the game. I got hurt by being Protestant, living in rural area, and being 71 years old. Well, 48% is almost a tie at least.
To Low Dudgeon: That description is not of many voters but an apt description of a guy who became CEO of Apple, Tim Cook.
Tons of gay men in Alabama but they're still closeted.
They use their hatred of drag shows, and love of firearms and noisy gas-guzzling pickups to mask their real sexuality.
Same as in most other states.
I'm 52% for Biden, yet I can no more imagine voting for Trump than I can see writing in or voting for RFK, Jr.
I am 63% for Biden, mainly because of my PhD and not being Christian.
This might be radically different if it posed questions on support for Palestinians versus Zionists and Ukraine support, especially in younger generations.
A data point about polling. Polling is contributing to this worldview.
As the Oregon election is coming up in a few weeks, the pollsters (and fundraising pleas) are getting more active.
When we moved to Florida, we kept our Oregon cellphone numbers as our primary phone numbers; area code 503.
My son and daughter-in-law are on our plan, so both of them also have 503 area codes. They resided in Europe for a few years, Georgia, and now New York.
Yepp they get polling calls, too. We are all assumed to be Oregon residents, and get called, even though we are registered in different states.
I'm not sure how all polling works, but I'm sure we aren't alone. Those polling companies who gather and publish voting statistics just might have segments data that is flawed when trying to assign demographics and voting preferences.
Just a thought about identifying the typical voter preference. I'm sure we're not the only ones whose area code doesn't truly identify where we reside.
Post a Comment