"Oh no, not I, I will survive
Oh, as long as I know how to love, I know I'll stay alive
I've got all my life to live
And I've got all my love to give and I'll survive
I will survive, hey, hey."
Gloria Gaynor "I will survive,” 1978 disco hit.
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| Mick Jagger, age 80 |
Good news on life expectancy in the U.S. We are living longer again.
Mick Jagger got Covid, then got well. He says he feels great.
In 2020 and 2021 life expectancy dropped in the U.S. The CDC reported that in 2020 we experienced 528,891 more deaths than in 2019. Some people argue it wasn't Covid, but something killed a half million people. Something lowered the U.S. life expectancy by 1.8 years compared to pre-Covid 2019. I think it was Covid. So does the CDC.
Covid was still a leading cause of death in 2022, at number three according to WebMD:
Heart disease (695,547)
Cancer (605,213)
COVID-19 (416,893)
Accidents (224,935)
Stroke (162,890)
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (142,342)
Alzheimer’s disease (119,399)
Diabetes (103,294)
Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (56,585)
Kidney disease (54,358)
A constant challenge in my work as a Financial Advisor was disabusing clients of two powerful presumptions. One was stated repeatedly: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. People heard it and largely ignored that. They assumed the future would be pretty much a continuation of the past.
The second was to warn them about averages. "You don't get average," I would say. "You get what you get." Clients would have an idea of an average of 10% nominal return for owning stocks. They would imagine a sequence of returns of 12%, then 8%, then 13%, then 9% -- investment returns tightly clustered around 10%. In real life, an historical return of 10% average came from averaging an annual loss of 15%, followed by a gain of 26%, a gain of 5%, then a loss of 9%, then a gain of 20%, and loss of 10%, and so forth.
So I present this chart with a warning for my readers, a group that is skewed toward boomers. On average, our life expectancy has gone back up. We survived Covid. But past performance is no guarantee. We get what we get.
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Click: Chart and tables |
The tables show that a man of 74, having survived the diseases and accidents that might have shortened his life, now has a life expectancy of another 11 years -- on average. If a woman survives to age 85, she has another 6.44 years of life -- on average.
Readers can explore this Social Security Administration table. It starts with 100,000 lives and then charts the expected deaths at every age starting at birth. Nearly all Americans survive early childhood. At my age of 74 a quarter of us have died. Then deaths happen more frequently.
FYI: Trump is 77. Biden is 81. Cher is 77. Dolly Parton is 77. Chuck Schumer is 73. Paul McCartney is 81. Wolf Blitzer is 81. Bob Woodward is 80. James Carville is 79. Meryl Streep is 74. Michael Bloomberg is 81.
[Note: For daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. The blog is free and always will be.]
9 comments:
Looking at that photo of Mick Jagger, he looks like someone who was 60 years old in the 1960's. In other words, a 60 year old from the 60's looks like an 80 year old today.
In 1960, the average lifespan of a male was 67 year old. Today it is 76 years old.
Lifestyle, diets, and better medicine have really extended the average person's lifespan. Who could have imagined 80 year old rockers or presidents?
What matters is quality, not quantity. There’s no percentage in living to 100 if you can’t enjoy it. Quality is determined by a number of factors, but those we can control are diet and exercise, so take care of yourself.
In 1975, when Mick Jagger was 31, he told People magazine: “I’d rather be dead than sing ‘Satisfaction’ when I’m 45.” But here he is, like Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden, still clinging to the glory days. Ironically, Jagger looks better than they do, but don’t be misled by the exception. If you want to remain independent for as long as possible, healthy habits generally work better than sex, drugs and rock ‘n roll.
AI death calculator can predict when you'll die... with eerie accuracy
https://scrippsnews.com/stories/ai-death-calculator-can-predict-when-you-ll-die-with-eery-accuracy/
If I can’t be sure it will predict what I want it to, I think I will avoid it. 😱😀
“Hope I die before I get old.“
Pete Townshend, The Who, currently 78 years old.
“ I thought it would take longer to get old.”
— internet meme
That’s “Gaynor”, not “Gainer”. Let’s help Gloria survive.
Why do you have an Englishman, Mick Jagger, to illustrate a story on life expectancy in the US?
The US has a wonderful health care system once you realize that its goal is profits, not healh.
The COVID pandemic thinned the herd; people delayed medical treatment.
I expect this "trend" is an outlier.
Why Mick Jagger???
Because Mick Jagger is 80 and I wanted the image of a well-known 80 year old. He is famous. He jumps around on stage. He is still working. And because Jagger is a citizen of the world and I don't think of him as British although of course he is.
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