Sunday, November 5, 2023

Easy Sunday: Oh-oh.

This will be fast. 

I'm sorry, but this won't be easy. 

Nothing I write generates more hostile comments than my telling Democrats that they have a problem.

Readers will be waking up this morning to news about the New York Times' poll that says that Biden is losing in five of the six battleground states.

New York Times

Biden is behind because a huge realignment is taking place in the political parties. Realignments have happened six or eight times before in American history. Realignments are when the platforms and constituencies of political parties switch sides and new coalitions are formed. The most recent, and the one experienced in real time by most of my readers, is the realignment of the American South from Democratic to Republican when Democrat Lyndon Johnson pushed forward on Black civil rights and Republican Barry Goldwater opposed the 1964 Civil Rights Act on libertarian grounds. Richard Nixon's 1968 and 1972 "Southern Strategy" accelerated the re-alignment. Pious, born-again Christian, Georgian Jimmy Carter slowed the realignment in 1976, but Ronald Reagan completed it in his 1980 campaign, which he kicked off in, of all places, Philadelphia, Mississippi, in a speech about "states' rights." The town was notorious as the place where local law enforcement covered up the murder of three civil rights workers in 1964. White southerners became the foundation block of the GOP coalition.

These changes happen in slow motion. As I wrote yesterday, Black and Hispanic voters are switching allegiance toward the GOP, led by males. They are voting their social class, not their race and ethnicity. I am guessing men are less offended by Trump's macho swagger and misogyny than are women. The NY Times poll documents this switch.

Democrats need huge margins out of Black, Hispanic, and young voters to win elections in battleground states. Young people don't find Biden appealing. Democrats my age can defend Biden's wisdom and experience -- I do. Biden defenders complain about "agist" prejudice and they scold people who note Biden's age and apparent vitality. But elections hinge on relatability. I remember my own youth. I remember the phrase "Don't trust anyone over 30." I remember thinking the phrase to be cheeky and oversimple, but not entirely wrong. People in their 30s had careers. They were settling into adulthood. Those of us in our 20s were exploring. We liked trying new things, new music, new lifestyles. Why not live in a geodesic dome? Why not live in a rustic backwoods? Why not change majors? We were going to change the world.

I will repeat something which never fails to elicit nasty comments. Joe Biden looks frail. 

He can communicate experience. At his best he can communicate wisdom and judgement. He cannot communicate a bold and confident march into a better future. Democrats can deny that reality and shame people for speaking it. But the reality sits there, mute and undeniable to a critical mass of Americans. No amount of door-knocking or money spent on advertising can change what people think they see: A frail old man hanging on too long. Democrats are probably stuck with this. They made their bed. Biden is their guy.

That -- along with the party realignment taking place -- will likely get Trump elected in 2024. 

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Low Dudgeon said...

Biden sounds frail too. He mumbles weakly, or yells like Grandpa Simpson as is from under a blanket. He reads the directions on his teleprompter aloud because he cannot tell them from the text.

But these polls are conducted among registered voters, not likely voters. Surely Trump would get swamped in a vote taken tomorrow, or next year? He has marginalized himself. He is toxic.

Anonymous said...

"Ageism: PREJUDICE or DISCRIMINATION on the grounds of age."

You miss the point, which you have a habit of doing. (Intentionally or conveniently?) This is why my comments can be blunt and direct...trying to penetrate the skull (mental silo) of an "old, heterosexual, white guy" (yes, YOU are "old" also) who attended an elite university, which further detached you from the grim reality of daily life for people in marginalized groups.

It's not that Biden supporters can't handle the truth about his job performance and "facts on the ground." But we don't appreciate OR promote "prejudice or discrimination BASED ON AGE." We are against stereotypes and hate speech.

Will you ever understand the difference???

Would you oppose a candidate for being black (racist) or a woman (sexist)? I hope not.

Other facts: Women are the majority in the Democratic Party. I also recall that women vote more than men, overall. (I need to fact check that.) Ever heard of the gender gap? Sorry, but sometimes I wonder what planet you live on.

Also, the word is "misogyny."

Anonymous said...

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, women cast 9.7 Million MORE VOTES than men in 2020. The "standard" American voter in a presidential election is a woman, not a man. According to on-line sources, women have voted in higher numbers than men since 1964.

Up Close: Road to the White House said...

Dear Anonymous.

Thanks, yes: misogyny. Spellcheck is a blessing and a curse.

Old isn't Biden's problem. Feeble-looking movement and weak voice is. Lots of 80+ year-olds would not have this problem. Trump, alas. He is crazy but not feeble.

I worked my way through my early life doing farm work and cleaning toilets and vacuuming floors. I am not some trust fund elitist.

I think it is great that women are a majority in the Democratic Party, but that is achieved, alas, by stupid-ass men who vote Republican. And, alas also, a majority of White women voted for Trump, not Hillary, in 2016. So some of the project of this blog is to try to understand why in the world women would vote for Trump three weeks after the Access Hollywood tape was released. But they did.

Potshots by anonymous complainers have about 10% of the credibility and impact as would be thoughtful guest posts from actual people. From the content and style I don't think this author is the local pro-Trump troll who sometimes writes here hoping to get his comments published. But I am flattered to know that your read me and engage.

I am trying to understand why women would vote for Trump after Access Hollywood, why people who say they support law enforcement support Trump, why people who claim to be Christian support a shockingly-unChristian leader, why people who pretend to pay their taxes and who care about perjury would support a person who flagrantly purgers himself when he files taxes, and how people who would never, ever, hire Trump to lead a school district, a hospital, a college, or even a landscape crew would then support Trump for president.

Yeah, well I am trying to figure out this planet we are on.

Send potshots from the sidelines if that is all you have in you. Or send a Guest Post. Do up something good, defending Biden, both on his ability to govern well and on his ability to attract enough votes to win an election.

Peter Sage

Mike said...

Making predictions is difficult, especially about the future. If Trump were to be elected in 2024, it would show that Americans don’t really want a democracy. Teaming up with today’s Republican Party is like joining the Confederacy, but it’s a confederacy of dunces. Trump and his party embody greed, anger, hatred and contempt for the rule of law. If Americans prefer that to the democratic process, they deserve Trump.

Anonymous said...

Fact Check, Please: More homework required. I believe it is married, white women who voted for the former Occupant... Not single women or women of color. Joe Biden won because of women voters and black voters.

As usual, you don't get it because you fail to scratch the surface and you are married to your chosen narratives.

So now you will stop mentioning Biden's age? Very good. Thank you

Mike said...

Anonymous –
Lifespans have a trajectory. No-one has suggested that Biden should retire to a nursing home, just that we’d like someone closer to their peak performance guiding the ship of state. If you find that offensive, tell it to Mitch McConnell.

Up Close: Road to the White House said...

Women for Trump, 2016.

Early exit polling showed a strong majority of White women voted for Trump. Later, more careful analysis by Pew reports that the Trump margin was smaller: 47% for Trummp. 45% for Hillary.

My point in citing this is not to absolve men from voting for a playboy misogynistic brute of the kind one would never hire or want to marry a sister. It is that Democrats, in their disgust with Trump, underestimate two things. They underestimate Trump's populist appeal that allows even women to vote for him. And they underestimate the dislike of a broad group of people, even White women, for some of the positions that Democrats take. I have described these in earlier posts.

I personally am not in wholesale opposition to the progressive agenda. I think it is impolitic and unpopular, however, and it goes to extremes. It turns off voters Democrats should attract. So Democrats lose elections.

I will say that I am personally uncomortable with males who have gone through puberty playing in competitive women's sports that involve strength and muscle mass. It seems unfair. It is bad politics to try to change the language of Hispanics and imply that their gendered nouns are offensive. It is their language and they don't want outsiders to disrespect it. I think that being unwilling to say "women" when bearing babies and instead using "birthing parent" will offend more people than it has value. I think pretending that electric vehicles dont have problems and rushing their adoption is a misstep. I think progressives should ease up on ondemning natural gas cookstoves. There are things they do that pushes away voters.

Peter Sage

Ed Cooper said...

Trumpists are not the only segment of the populace wearing blinders, or refusing to see what is plainly laid out in front of them, as your continued excoriation of Peter for stating facts clearly shows. The President is frail, and shows it, in his speech, his falls and in the way he walks. Nothing there to be ashamed of, I'm not quite President Bidens age, but I trip over unseen things, and have to very careful about taking a tumble going up stairs. I don't particularly trust the NYT Polling, or reporting, but those numbers in today's blog hopefullyvwill wake some people up as to the danger this Republic is facing.

Doe the unknown said...

Listening to the November 3rd Washington Week, I got the impression that the commentators are worried that President Biden can't cut the mustard any more. These commentators don't come across as Trump supporters or even as Republicans. They don't say President Biden can't cut the mustard in so many words, but that doesn't matter. Their subliminal message is that it's getting late in the game to do anything other than worry on one hand and hope for a lucky break on the other (for example, former president Trump in prison next summer, or a Biden-brokered world peace and prosperity the likes of which no one has ever experienced before). Back when "Don't trust anyone over thirty" was a fresh idea, a high school teacher told me the
problem with leadership for my generation was that those in my generation who should be the leaders won't lead. He had a point. It seems that Gen X might have the same problem; but maybe that's because a cohort of Gen Xers who should be able to lead are instead confused. For some, this confusion comes from being children of the hippies, the hippies who took "Work, study, get ahead, kill" as a call to "turn on, tune in, and drop out." Confusion for other potential leaders from Gen X, the ones whose parents led or took full advantage of the Reagan revolution, stems from trying to figure out how "greed is good" ever got to be a leadership slogan. You may assume I'm talking about white people here. Of course President Biden was friends with Corn Pop. The You Tube video of President Biden retelling his experience as a lifeguard and interaction with Corn Pop is not to be missed by anyone who takes President Biden seriously. Back to my point: The liberal pundits are getting worried, even if they won't come right out and say it. Peter, you have a point today, and ageism isn't President Biden's or the Democratic party's problem.

Peter C said...

Democrats sometimes take things too far. Things that most people don't understand or care about. Like Transgender. How many people are Transgender? How many Transgender people do you know? Bathrooms? Just go in and do your business. Nobody is looking at you. In fact, everyone kind of looks away. So, who cares? Stop talking about it.

Democrats have to get off the BS and concentrate on what actually effects people. The environment, inflation, taxes, gas prices, etc. The stuff people are concerned about.

Let's face it, Biden is old and looks it. Not his fault, of course, but that's what it is. Somebody in his circle has to get him to admit he's just not up to the job anymore. I like this poll because it might serve as a wake-up call to Joe and his close advisors. Let someone else take over before the Former President becomes the Current one.

There is still plenty of time

Dave said...

Joe Biden if you’re reading this- Please step down for the good of the country. You have my sincere thanks for your service, but it is time for someone younger. PLEASE.

Ed Cooper said...

Agreeing 💯, Mike. If theycshould vote him in they deserve what they get. The rest if us most emphatically do not.

John F said...

If not Joe who?

Mike said...

About the only thing I can imagine more dismal than this pathetic rematch between two white male geezers would be having the batshit crazy one win.

Peter C. said...

I still like Jon Tester Senator from Montana. Watched him on the Bill Maher show and was very impressed. Midwest farmer look, but very intelligent. He could appeal to a lot of people.

Woke Guy :-) said...

Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker come readily to mind to name just 4 who would likely do significantly better than Biden.. There's ALOT of good choices out there. Joe has done a better job than I would have guessed but at this point he is losing ground rapidly and the Democrats are increasingly running the risk of a "Hillary in 2016" type mistake by having Biden as the nominee again.

Considering the stakes of this election, as in that the Republican Party is openly planning to permanently end our little 250 years-ish experiment of being democracy (look up Project 2025, it is in the MAGAs own words and they are proud of it), the stakes could not be higher.

It is beyond imperative not to lose this election and people who think Biden is the best positioned to do that are, in my opinion, experiencing a similar level of delusion to the folks who thought in 2016 that Hillary was a good candidate who would crush Trump while choosing to stick their heads in the sand about the enormous amount of baggage she was bringing along. And whether it's fair or not, it's becoming more and more similar with Biden.

Anonymous said...

"All the Single Democratic Ladies," Nov. 30, 2022, article by Ramesh Ponnuru (online).

(Title is a nod to the 2008 hit song "Single Ladies" by Beyoncé, who is a black female artist.)

Ed Cooper said...

I like Jon Tester so much I want to keep him in the Senate, perhaps to replace Shuckles Schumah,or maybe displace the confessed felon who they elected as Governor. For that Matter, the former Governor of Montana Steve Bullock, imho, would have made a fine Candidate for President, had he been able to break the stranglehold the MSM holds on Candidate Selection. Personally, I would really like to see Gretchen Whitmer go for it. I've been seeking out Kamala Harris at various events, and I've come to a reluctant conclusion that she's not quite ready for the Oval Office.

Anonymous said...

The polls are not trustworthy or predictive at all, for starters. Moreover, Biden is doing a fantastic job running the executive branch, dealing with Congress, leading the world, and lending superior wisdom and judgment to some of the most difficult international problems we've faced lately. His cabinet is great and most of his public actions (travel to Israel) have been masterstrokes. Plus, the economy is in quite good shape and most crime is down. Americans like to complain but I do not believe they would be idiotic enough to grant Trump another go, especially in light of Biden's superior performance. There is no realignment; Trump has stirred a pot whose impact has been magnified by social media but things should settle down soon enough. Loser Trump in prison sounds like the right denouement.

Anonymous said...

It is so interesting that The Lincoln Project praises and supports Joe Biden more than so-called (fake?) Democrats.

Anonymous said...

The haters want to tank the re-election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for their own selfish reasons and because they have a grudge against him. Cutting off your nose to spite your face. Blame yourselves if the former Dumpster Fire president gets re-elected. Spite is ugly.

Mc said...

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have my financial support, my vote and my time canvassing here in my state and purple states I will visit next year.

Joe gets results!

M2inFLA said...

It took awhile before VP Kamala Harris was mentioned, and that mention was not praise.

We are in the midst of looking at candidates with a populist eye, rather than whether the candidate can do the job if elected.

All our candidates have flaws, some only a few, others a seemingly endless list of faults.

Sure, a voter with critical thinking might be able to sort thru everything, weigh the pluses and minuses, and select the best possible person. Unfortunately, those skills are rare, and instead we have campaigns that appeal to voter biases, rather than how well the candidate might be able to do the job required.

I've voted R, D, and I in the past, because I do consider the merits and abilities that a candidate has demonstrated in the past. Not everyone can be a good leader.

What has not been mentioned yet is who would be the team of people working with a new administration that would be actually doing the job that needs to be done.

Back to VP Harris and to other choices that our current president has selected. Harris was selected because she was a black female. Similarly, so was Supreme Court Judge Jackson. Both were selected focusing on their race and gender.

Similarly, pundits cannot help praising or disparaging other candidates when they mention race and gender rather than the candidate's ability to do the job. It's not just in government but in many other situations like jobs, schools, and spokespeople to single out a few.

We all have biases, unfortunately.

Do I think our current president is doing a good job? Not really. I defer to the people in the administration who are actually doing the job, hopefully with Biden's approval. I am both encouraged and disappointed by our Congress, our Courts, and our Administration because there are likely fewer competent leaders and people doing the job that needs to be done. They can't all be above average.

Labeling someone a D, R, MAGA, Independent, Liberal, Progressive, or any other label is no assurance that a job will be well done if elected. Only a competent team can work together to get the job done, and not everyone actually wants to work well together.

Mu usual disclaimer, I don't want Biden, Trump, or DeSantis to be our next President. I am a registered Republican. I could easily be registered Democrat or Independent, and still have the same beliefs as I've written. The label only gives me access to selecting candidates for a political party.

I want to hear from the candidates (and the media): what are the top 10 issues for the US, and what are the candidate's plans for getting them addressed? No doubt that several candidates could state their top 10 without a teleprompter, but I also know neither Trump nor Biden could.

PS President Biden is infirmed. A more accurate term than simply saying he is old. Age is not the sole determinant of ability or competency.